10 NFL Player Prop Trends Bettors Need to Know Entering Week 4: Analysis

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Written By Justin Bales | Published at October 1, 2026
New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (5) runs with the ball past Miami Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey (5), Sunday January 5, 2025, in East Rutherford.

We’re three weeks into the NFL season, with roles becoming clearer, and we can use that information to identify the most important NFL player prop trends.

Bettors tend to look at production, but we’ll be focusing on usage throughout this article. Some of the usage metrics that we care more about for NFL Week 4 player props are:

Usage can be more predictive than production, especially when production is driven by small-sample efficiency. The following 10 trends are based on what happened in Weeks 1-3 and help us look ahead to Week 4.

Keep in mind that trends don’t automatically make good bets. Use them as context, and find the best NFL player prop odds for value.

These trends can help bettors identify potential value in Week 4 NFL player props.

1. Drake London’s Target Volume Exploded With Michael Penix Jr. Back

London struggled early in the season, as the Atlanta Falcons switched between Cooper Rush and Jack Strand at quarterback. Penix returned in Week 3, and London immediately got back on track.

Atlanta’s star wide receiver played 93% of the offensive snaps, posting a 100% route participation rate against the Green Bay Packers. He doubled his 2026 totals, recording 10 targets. He saw a ridiculous 40% target share with Penix after recording 18.5% in the first two weeks of the season.

London gets a matchup against the New Orleans Saints this week. They’ve been a relatively average pass defense, but they’ve struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

Penix has historically peppered London with targets, and that should continue as long as he’s starting. His expanded target role makes his NFL receiving props with monitoring in Week 4.

2. Ollie Gordon II Has a Path to Major Volume After De’Von Achane’s Injury

Achane tore his ACL in Week 3, and he’ll miss the rest of the season. That thrust Gordon into a major role against the San Francisco 49ers, although that might not be his role moving forward.

Gordon played 83.6% of the offensive snaps on Sunday. He saw 17 carries and three receptions on three targets, totaling 55 yards and one touchdown. Most importantly, he was the only running back to record a touch after Achane left the game.

Jaylen Wright was out in Week 3, though, and he’s currently day-to-day with the chance to return this week. If that’s the case, the Miami Dolphins could opt to split work between the duo.

The Dolphins are also currently +11.5-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings, which could limit Gordon's or Wright’s rushing volume, so check the Dolphins’ odds before the game.

3. Jaylen Warren Became Pittsburgh’s Workhorse Without Rico Dowdle

Warren completely took over the Pittsburgh Steelers’ backfield with Dowdle injured.

The veteran running back played 90.3% of the offensive snaps. He totaled 17 rush attempts with three receptions on four targets. It’s one of only a handful of games in which Pittsburgh’s given Warren 20+ touches.

Dowdle’s dealing with a toe injury, and he didn’t practice early in the week. The Steelers are playing on Thursday, giving him limited time to get healthy. He could be out again against the Cleveland Browns.

Warren’s value relies heavily on Dowdle’s status. If Dowdle is out, Warren should land another workhorse role. If Dowdle suits up, they’ll likely split the work as they did earlier in the season.

Dowdle’s status will be one of the biggest variables for Thursday Night Football player props.

4. Jahmyr Gibbs Is Getting True Bell-Cow Usage

Jahmyr Gibbs split work with David Montgomery throughout his career. When the latter left in the offseason, the Detroit Lions signed Isiah Pacheco to take over at least some of Montgomery’s role. Once Pacheco was placed on injured reserve, it was assumed Gibbs would take on a workhorse role. That’s been confirmed through three games.

The star running back is playing roughly 75% of Detroit's snaps this season. More importantly, he’s handled 87.8% of the running back carries. He also owns a 19.4% target share, ranking behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown with 21 targets.

Gibbs has posted 20+ touches in each of Detroit’s first three games, including 34 against the New Orleans Saints. He boasts elite versatility, allowing him to contribute in multiple ways.

The Lions get a good matchup against the Carolina Panthers, and Gibbs should find elite volume once again, adding intrigue to his NFL rushing and receiving props.

5. Jeremiyah Love Appears to Have Taken Over Arizona’s Backfield

Love came into the season with an injury, and the Arizona Cardinals said they planned to ease him into his career. That was the case early on, but his workload expanded significantly in Week 3.

Love played roughly 40% of the offensive snaps in his first two games, totaling 25 touches. He played 64.4% of the offensive snaps in Week 3, recording 26 touches against the San Francisco 49ers.

The rookie star handled 91.3% of the running back carries last week. This was a drastic change after handling only 45.5% of the carries through the first two weeks. He also saw five targets compared to only four for Tyler Allgeier in Week 3.

It’s tough to know whether this breakout will continue at such a high rate, but it’s clear Arizona is shifting toward its first-round pick as an offensive focal point. It’s a spot to look for NFL rushing props.

6. Brock Bowers Returned Without a Usage Restriction

Brock Bowers missed the first two games with a meniscus injury, but he wasn’t limited in his return. He played 78.6% of the offensive snaps, posting a route participation rate over 90%. He’s essentially a wide receiver, running 24 of his 33 routes from the slot or out wide.

The Las Vegas Raiders’ star tight end was also an immediate focal point of the offense. He turned 13 targets into 10 receptions for 116 yards and one touchdown. The key is that he posted an elite 39.4% target share against the New Orleans Saints.

Bowers could continue to find more work, as he generally plays 90% or more of the overall snaps. Regardless, he’ll continue to see an elite role in this offense, essentially creating a mismatch in NFL tight end props.

7. Garrett Wilson Owns Both Jets Target Share And Air-Yards Share Without Adonai Mitchell

Wilson and Mitchell were fairly even in terms of opportunity and production for the New York Jets entering Week 3. The latter missed the game due to a finger injury, and the former became the clear top option.

In Week 3, Wilson saw a 35.1% target share, recording 13 targets. He also saw 129 air yards, posting a team-high 41.6% air-yard share.

New York’s top receiver saw only 14 targets through their first two games, which was similar to Mitchell, who saw 15. Wilson did see a nearly 50% air-yard percentage in Week 1, but it dipped to only 28.8% in Week 2.

Mitchell could return this week, and that would make Wilson’s Week 4 projection more volatile. His NFL target share profile changes drastically depending on Mitchell’s status. If he’s out, Wilson should see a large target share with plenty of air yards once again.

8. Colts’ Passing Game Condensed Without Alec Pierce

Pierce re-aggravated his heel injury in Week 2, and he’s been placed on injured reserve. He’s going to miss several games for the Indianapolis Colts, and that’s if he returns as quickly as he’s allowed.

In his absence, Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, and Keenan Allen became the focal points of the passing game. The trio combined for 30 targets in Week 3. Overall, they accounted for 83.3% of Indianapolis’ targets last week.

All three players saw a 75% or better route participation against the Houston Texans, with Warren leading the group. The target concentration also began in Week 2 after Pierce exited the game.

Downs is the leader of the trio, with Warren slightly behind him, and Allen the final piece. It’s fairly clear that the top two will continue to see plenty of volume, with Allen likely being slightly more volatile.

A more condensed passing offense can help create more predictable NFL receiving props.

9. Bhayshul Tuten Has Established Himself As Jacksonville’s Lead Runner

Tuten was expected to be the lead runner for the Jacksonville Jaguars, and that’s been the case through three games. Here’s his volume thus far:

Arguably the biggest key for Tuten is that Chris Rodriguez didn’t see many touches in Week 3 until Jacksonville had built a big lead. Tuten certainly played in the second half, but Rodriguez had only three first-half carries, and Ameer Abdullah didn’t see the ball until the final drive, when the game was already over.

Tuten is earning more work for the Jaguars, and he’s locked in as the preferred early-down option. He’s an interesting option to consider for NFL rushing attempt props.

10. Harold Fannin Jr.’s Targets Have Increased Every Week

Fannin’s participation hasn’t changed, as he’s played over 80% of the snaps in each of his first three games this season. His opportunities have been increasing throughout the season, though. Here’s how his targets have looked through three weeks:

The Browns are breaking in a new offense with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. As the weeks progress and everyone gets more comfortable, we’ll continue to see who deserves the most opportunities.

At this point, it looks like Fannin is the player who’s starting to demand more targets and a larger share of targets. He’ll continue to see plenty of snaps, and his opportunities should follow.

Trends shouldn’t be used as the sole basis for placing bets. Instead, they should be used to find potential changes in value. These changes still need to be evaluated further before determining whether a wager offers value.

Find the biggest trends in usage, efficiency, and matchups. Opportunities (snaps, targets, carries, etc.) are the most important trends for identifying where the value lies. They’re drastically more important than any previous box scores.

Check injury reports and inactive players throughout the week, as some trends rely strictly on players missing games. Also, compare prices across sportsbooks. Shopping for the best line is an important part of NFL prop betting. A sound NFL prop betting strategy still requires comparing usage trends to the posted lines.

Final Thoughts: Target Shifting Roles, New Opportunities

Early-season roles begin to become clearer by Week 4. We gather information over the first three weeks, allowing us to spot emerging trends.

Opportunity is the most important aspect here. It’s more predictive and repeatable than previous production. It paints a clearer picture than simply what happened before.

Whether it’s due to injuries, new roles, or breakout players, trends can be useful for identifying potentially undervalued spots. You’ll need to research more information, though, as trends shouldn’t be treated as a be-all and end-all.

We’re looking for markets that haven’t fully adjusted to these trends. Make sure you’re checking lines and the latest Week 4 NFL player prop odds before kickoff.

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