Ravens vs. Falcons Prediction, Odds & Picks for Oct. 11: Running Backs Matter
The Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons will face off in an important Week 5 matchup. Our Ravens vs. Falcons prediction outlines FanDuel odds, betting trends, injuries, and best bets for Sunday Night Football.
The Ravens enter this game with a 3-1 record, posting a +20 point differential. They’ll be without star quarterback Lamar Jackson this week, though. The Falcons are 2-2 with a +4 point differential, but they have a +42 point differential in two games with Michael Penix Jr.
Both teams have dealt with quarterback injuries this season, but Atlanta’s starting quarterback is healthy entering this game, while Baltimore’s star has already been ruled out.
Ravens vs. Falcons Odds
Baltimore is tied at the top of the AFC North with a 3-1 record, but they’ll be without former MVP Lamar Jackson on Sunday night. Atlanta owns a 2-2 record, and they’re tied at the top of the NFC South. The Falcons are home favorites via FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Spread: Ravens +3.5 (-122) / Falcons -3.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Ravens (+142) / Falcons (-168)
- Total: Over 43.5 (-114) / Under 43.5 (-106)
The oddsmakers expect a low-scoring game, with the Falcons at a 62.7% implied win probability, according to our Probability Calculator.
Check the latest NFL odds before betting, as lines tend to shift throughout the week.
New Users – Get $250 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 5 days Baltimore Ravens Betting Trends
The Ravens have found plenty of success this season, posting a 3-1 record through four games. They’re tied with the Cleveland Browns in the AFC North, although they own the better advanced metrics. Here are some trends for Baltimore this week:
- The Ravens are 3-1 straight up and 1-3 ATS this season.
- The Over is 2-2 in Baltimore games.
- Baltimore ranks third in rushing play percentage (53.1%).
- Multiple stars - Lamar Jackson and Trey Hendrickson - have been ruled out.
The Ravens have performed well this season, finding wins over the Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, and Tennessee Titans. Their only loss came against the New Orleans Saints. Their offense has been inconsistent, although it has flashed elite upside at times.
Lamar Jackson’s already been ruled out for this game, shifting Tyler Huntley into the starter role. He’s an experienced backup in the NFL, although he’s clearly a step down from a former two-time MVP.
Find more Baltimore Ravens odds here.
Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends
The Falcons struggled early in the season with Cooper Rush and Jack Strand at quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. returned in Week 3, and they dominated the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints on the road. Here are some Atlanta trends for this week:
- The Falcons are 2-2 straight up and 2-2 ATS this season.
- The Over is 2-2 in Atlanta games.
- Atlanta leads the NFL in rushing play percentage (56.5%).
- Several starters could return for the Falcons this week.
Atlanta looks like a completely new team with Penix at quarterback. They’re finding significantly more offensive success, but they’ve also looked good defensively.
The Falcons have featured one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Granted, their numbers include games against Green Bay and New Orleans, whose rushing attacks have struggled this season. Still, they’ve found success against other teams as well. Their defensive speed could also help contain Huntley as a runner.
Find more Atlanta Falcons odds here.
Ravens vs. Falcons Prediction: Bijan Robinson Over 88.5 Rushing Yards
Bijan Robinson’s rushing-yard prop is my favorite Ravens vs. Falcons prediction.
Robinson’s been one of the NFL’s most productive runners this season. He ranks second in rushing yards (494), while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Overall, he’s averaging 123.5 rushing yards per game through four games.
Michael Penix Jr. returned two games ago, and he’s opened up this offense more. Defenses can’t key as heavily on Robinson the way they could with Cooper Rush or Jack Strand at quarterback. That’s allowed him to total 339 rushing yards over his last two games.
The Ravens boast one of the better run defenses in the NFL, but it’s propped up by games against the Tennessee Titans and New Orleans Saints. Both Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams rushed for 98 yards on 19 carries against Baltimore, though.
Best Bet: Bijan Robinson Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-114 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
More Ravens vs. Falcons Picks, Props and Best Bets
Here are a few more Ravens vs. Falcons betting angles to consider:
- Tyler Huntley Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-114 @ FanDuel Sportsbook) - Huntley started two games for Baltimore last season, rushing for at least 50 yards in both starts. The Ravens will want to run, and Huntley can help keep the defense honest.
- Baltimore/Atlanta Under 43.5 Points (-106 @ FanDuel Sportsbook) - These are two of the slowest-paced teams in the NFL this season. They’re also both going to lean heavily on their running games, keeping the clock moving throughout the game.
- Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-150 @ FanDuel Sportsbook) - Henry leads the NFL in rush attempts inside the 10-yard line (17) this season. He’s the goal-line option for Baltimore, and he should continue to see an elite red-zone role for the Ravens.
Make sure you’re comparing prices on the top sports betting apps before placing wagers.
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Ravens vs. Falcons Broadcast Info
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA
- TV and streaming: NBC/Peacock
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