Ravens vs. Cowboys Prediction, Odds & Picks for Sept. 27: Back Baltimore
Welcome to my Ravens vs. Cowboys prediction for Sunday, with Baltimore laying more than a field goal on a neutral field in Rio de Janeiro.
Baltimore and Dallas are both 1-1 entering the NFL’s first regular-season game in Rio. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET at Maracana Stadium. The Cowboys are the designated home team, but this is a neutral-site game in every meaningful sense. Let's start breaking down these NFL predictions!
Ravens vs. Cowboys Odds & Prediction For Sunday, Sept. 27
- Spread: Ravens -3.5 (-105), Cowboys +3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Ravens -175, Cowboys +145
- Total: Over/Under 53.5 (-105, -115)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Always check the latest number before placing a bet, as spreads and totals can move throughout the week.
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Ravens Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
The line tells the story before we even get to the matchup.
Baltimore is laying 3.5 points away from home against a Cowboys team that just dropped 37 points in a convincing win over Washington. The Ravens are also dealing with uncertainty around Zay Flowers, who is reportedly traveling with the club after missing last week’s game with a hamstring injury. His official status still matters, but Baltimore has enough on offense to make this a difficult spot for Dallas regardless.
The Cowboys were a team I liked entering the season. Dak Prescott is still capable of keeping Dallas competitive against anybody, and Brian Schottenheimer’s offense has found points early. Dallas answered an ugly Week 1 performance against the Giants with a 37-20 win over the Commanders, and Prescott was able to move the offense almost at will.
But the Cowboys’ defense is the concern.
Christian Parker’s unit has had trouble stopping the run through two weeks. The Cowboys have the 10th-worst defensive hit rate, according to Fantasy Points data, meaning ball carriers have too often reached the line of scrimmage untouched or with favorable running lanes.
That is a troubling early indicator no matter the opponent, and it becomes a much bigger concern against Baltimore.
Baltimore's Convincing Ground Game
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are not simply a difficult rushing matchup. They create the kind of math problem that can break a defense. Dallas has already faced two underwhelming rushing attacks in the Giants and Commanders. Baltimore’s ground game, with Henry’s physicality, Jackson’s mobility, and Declan Doyle’s motion-heavy looks, is a different animal entirely.
Doyle, Baltimore’s first-year offensive coordinator, deserves some scrutiny after last week’s loss to New Orleans. Derrick Henry’s second-half involvement was a major talking point, and it was fair to wonder why the Ravens did not lean harder on their best offensive weapon as the game tightened.
But if Baltimore wants to get right, this is the game to recommit to its identity.
Lamar Jackson’s Legs Matter
Dallas has blitzed at a relatively high rate through two games. That can be a reasonable strategy against plenty of quarterbacks. It is a much riskier proposition against Jackson.
Pressure can disrupt an offense, but it can also create escape lanes for the league’s most dangerous running quarterback. If the Cowboys get overaggressive and the rush loses lane integrity, Jackson can turn a third-and-7 into a 20-yard gain before Dallas realizes the pocket has collapsed in the wrong direction.
That's why I am also interested in Jackson’s rushing props.
Jackson has just 11 rushing attempts through two games, with 34 yards against the Saints last week and 40 against the Colts in Week 1. The raw volume has been muted, but this has the feel of a spot where Baltimore may need him to use his legs more frequently. Dallas’ defensive front has not earned much benefit of the doubt so far, and the Ravens have every incentive to make the Cowboys account for Jackson on every snap.
The game script helps too. Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and the Cowboys are capable of scoring, which means the Ravens may need to keep pushing rather than sitting on a second-half lead.
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Now, for my Ravens vs. Cowboys prediction for Week 3.
The Cowboys’ offensive profile remains strong. Schottenheimer has generally put Dallas in position to create points, and the Cowboys have ranked in the top half of the league in offensive EPA per play over the last several years.
Dallas should find scoring opportunities. Baltimore’s defense hasn't been perfect, and an international game brings plenty of weirdness: altered schedules, travel, an unfamiliar stadium, and questions about field conditions.
But Jesse Minter’s defense has been especially difficult to finish drives against in the red zone. Over more than 30 games as a defensive play-caller across multiple stops now, Minter’s units rank second in red-zone EPA per play allowed, according to Fantasy Points data.
Prescott may move the ball between the 20s. The Cowboys may even hit explosive plays. But the Ravens have a better chance to force field goals when the field compresses, while Baltimore’s offense has the more reliable path to dictate the game on the ground.
The hook is always uncomfortable. Three is obviously an important number in NFL betting, and asking Baltimore to win by four or more isn't nothing. But I'd rather take the more complete rushing attack and the defense that has consistently made life harder near the goal line.
Best Bet: Ravens -3.5 DraftKings, -105
Where To Bet Ravens vs. Cowboys
Compare the latest NFL odds before kickoff, especially if Flowers is cleared or ruled out. His availability can affect the spread, total, and Jackson’s passing and rushing markets.
You can also compare prices at the top NFL betting sites and use the best sports betting apps to shop Lamar Jackson props, alternate spreads, and live markets.
Baltimore may not have played its cleanest football over the first two weeks, but this matchup puts the Ravens back in a familiar position: run the ball, create chaos with Jackson, and force Dallas to withstand a level of physicality it has not handled yet.
Good luck!
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