Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction, Odds & Picks for Sept. 27: Back New England
Our Patriots vs. Jaguars prediction for Sunday’s NFL Week 3 matchup has New England pulling off the road upset at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. The New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars both enter at 1-1, but the Patriots are coming off a strong bounce-back win and look undervalued as underdogs.
Below, we break down the latest odds, betting trends and our favorite picks and props for Sunday’s matchup.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds
Both teams enter Week 3 at 1-1. Jacksonville sits atop the AFC South, while New England is tied for second in the AFC East. The Jaguars are slight home favorites after losing 20-13 at Denver, while the Patriots responded to an opening loss with a 20-3 win over Pittsburgh.
Here are the current Patriots vs. Jaguars odds:
- Spread: Patriots +2.5 (-106) / Jaguars -2.5 (-113)
- Moneyline: Patriots (+130) / Jaguars (-155)
- Total: Over 45.5 (-115) / Under 45.5 (-105)
All Odds via BetMGM
Jacksonville being favored by less than a field goal suggests a relatively tight matchup. New England’s +130 moneyline carries an implied win probability of roughly 43.5%, while a total of 45.5 points sets up the possibility of more offense than the Patriots have shown through two games.
New England Patriots Betting Trends
- New England is 1-1 entering Week 3.
- The Patriots are allowing 8.0 points per game.
- New England ranks among the league leaders in total defense through two games.
- The Patriots have been particularly strong against the pass.
- New England enters Week 3 with a negative turnover differential.
The Patriots have played excellent defense despite the split record. They have allowed only 16 total points through two games, giving the offense plenty of margin for error while keeping both contests relatively low-scoring.
Turnovers are the obvious concern and have been all over the headlines. New England has not protected the football well enough, but the 20-3 win over Pittsburgh showed how difficult this team can be to beat when the defense controls the game.
If the Patriots can simply avoid giving Jacksonville short fields, their defensive start gives them a legitimate path to another win. They need to get back to the way they were playing on their Super Bowl run last season.
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- Jacksonville is 1-1 entering Week 3.
- The Jaguars are averaging 23.5 points per game.
- Jacksonville scored 34 points in its season-opening win.
- The Jaguars were held to 13 points in their Week 2 loss.
- Jacksonville enters the matchup with a positive turnover differential.
The Jaguars opened the season with an impressive 34-10 win over Cleveland before their offense cooled considerably in a 20-13 loss at Denver.
Jacksonville has shown more scoring upside than New England, but the overall offensive consistency has not been there yet. That makes this an interesting spot for a Patriots defense that has been among the best units in the league through the first two weeks.
The bigger question is whether New England can generate enough offense to take advantage. Jacksonville has been vulnerable enough through the air to give Drake Maye opportunities to produce his best performance of the young season.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Prediction: Patriots Moneyline (+130)
My favorite Patriots vs. Jaguars prediction is New England to win outright at +130 at DraftKings.
I simply think the Patriots are the better of these two playoff-caliber team, and this looks like a strong spot to take advantage of them being road underdogs. New England bounced back from its opening loss with a dominant defensive performance against Pittsburgh, and its defense has been significantly better than Jacksonville’s through two weeks.
The Jaguars were explosive in their opener, but they scored only 13 points last week. If New England can force Jacksonville into another inconsistent offensive performance, the Patriots should have every opportunity to stay in control of this game.
There has also been meaningful betting support for New England despite Jacksonville being favored at home. That makes this a spot where I am comfortable riding with the public rather than fading it.
Maye will need to take better care of the football, but New England should have opportunities to move the ball. I also like Patriots +2.5, but the plus-money payout makes the outright win my favorite way to attack the matchup.
Best Bet: Patriots moneyline (+130)
Final Prediction: Patriots 28, Jaguars 23
More Patriots vs. Jaguars Picks, Props and Best Bets
- Patriots +2.5 (-106): If New England is good enough to win outright, taking the points is a natural secondary play. The Patriots’ defense should keep them within one possession even if the upset falls short.
- Over 45.5 (-115): I expect more offense from New England than we have seen so far. Both quarterbacks can create explosive passing plays, and neither defense feels completely untouchable. A 28-23 final clears this number comfortably and is a near-even bet at most sportsbooks.
- Brian Thomas Jr. anytime touchdown (+260): Thomas remains one of Jacksonville’s most dangerous scoring threats. At +260, the payout is attractive enough to bet on his ability to turn a limited number of opportunities into a touchdown.
- Drake Maye and Trevor Lawrence each to throw an interception (+236): Maye has had turnover issues early, while Lawrence faces a New England pass defense playing at a high level. A game with increased passing volume should create opportunities for both defenses. That's why we're leaning into this simple parlay.
- Travis Hunter Over 0.5 receptions (-115): Hunter only needs one catch to cash this prop. Jacksonville can manufacture a simple screen or designed touch, making one reception a reasonable threshold.
- Patriots team total Over 21.5 (-113): This correlates directly with the New England moneyline and full-game over. If the Patriots win, I expect them to reach at least the low-to-mid 20s.
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- Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
- Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Florida
- TV and Streaming Options: CBS, Paramount+ and NFL+
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