Patriots vs. Bears Prediction, Odds & Picks for Oct. 22: Bears Continue Home Success

Written By Justin Bales | Published at October 22, 2026

Jan 18, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) throws a pass against the Los Angeles Rams during the third quarter of an NFC Divisional Round game at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The New England Patriots will travel to face the Chicago Bears to start Week 7. Our Patriots vs. Bears prediction covers FanDuel odds, betting trends, injuries, and best bets for Thursday Night Football.

The Patriots are dealing with several injuries, but they still rank second in the AFC East with a 4-2 record. They also boast an impressive +23 point differential in 2026.

The Bears have dealt with their fair share of injuries this season, and they also enter this game with a 4-2 record. Furthermore, they’ve posted a +31 point differential through six games.

Patriots vs. Bears Odds

New England and Chicago are both tied for second in their respective divisions with 4-2 records through six games. The Bears are home favorites via FanDuel Sportsbook:

Spread: Patriots +3 (-115) / Bears -3 (-105)
Moneyline: Patriots (+132) / Bears (-156)
Total: Over 50.5 (-110) / Under 50.5 (-110)

The oddsmakers expect a high-scoring game, with the Bears at a 60.9% implied win probability, according to our Probability Calculator.

Check the latest NFL odds before betting, as lines tend to shift throughout the week.

New Users – Get $350 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 7 days

Bet Now FanDuel Promo

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpgg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (NY). 21+ (18+ DC, WY) and present in select states (for KS, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino). Find online real money wagering only. Min $5 wager required for 7 consecutive days. $5 free play credit. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus with cash withdrawable bonus with cash withdrawable. Bonus bets which expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Call 1-877-770-7867 (LA).

New England Patriots Betting Trends

The Patriots have performed well throughout the 2026 season. They lost a close game against the Seattle Seahawks, but they were also blown out by the Jacksonville Jaguars. They also own an outstanding road win over the Buffalo Bills. Here are some trends for New England this week:

The Patriots are 4-2 straight up and 4-2 ATS this season.
The Over is 3-3 in New England games.
New England ranks 28th in average scoring margin (-9.7) per game on the road.
Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker have not practiced yet this week.

Although the Patriots have a solid road win over Buffalo, their advanced metrics on the road aren’t great. That’s partly due to them facing tougher competition on the road than at home this season, but they could also simply be a team that struggles on the road.

This is an interesting spot for New England as they deal with multiple injuries along the offensive line. If Brown and Vera-Tucker can’t play, this will be a significantly tougher challenge.

Find more New England Patriots odds here.

Chicago Bears Betting Trends

The Bears have enjoyed a solid season despite the injuries they’ve suffered. Their only two losses have come to the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers, and Caleb Williams only played roughly three quarters in those games combined. They also boast wins over the Carolina Panthers, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets, and Atlanta Falcons. Here are some Chicago trends for this week:

The Bears are 4-2 straight up and 4-2 ATS this season.
The Over is 2-4 in Chicago games.
Chicago ranks third in points allowed (0.215) per play at home.
Montez Sweat is suspended, while Kyle Monangai and T.J. Edwards haven’t practiced.

Chicago’s offensive sample with Williams is still limited in 2026 because of his injury. He’s looked outstanding in two full games, but he also struggled against the Vikings. The weather makes it difficult to attribute those struggles entirely to Williams, though.

This is a team that has looked outstanding at home, though, specifically on defense. If that defensive performance continues, they’re going to be a tough out for any opponent.

Find more Chicago Bears odds here.

Patriots vs. Bears Prediction: Chicago Bears -3 Spread

The Chicago Bears -3 spread is my favorite Patriots vs. Bears prediction.

The Bears have dealt with injuries this season, specifically to star quarterback Caleb Williams. He returned in their last game, and their offense immediately took a step forward. Overall, he’s played in two full games, and Chicago has averaged 45 points per game.

Chicago’s playing at home, where they boast an +8.3 average scoring margin per game, compared to only +2.0 on the road. Their defense is also significantly better in Chicago, which is the key for this game.

On the other side, the Patriots haven’t traveled well in 2026. They boast the second-best average home scoring margin per game (+17.3) in the NFL, but that number drops to -9.7 on the road. Their offense and defense have both been significantly worse outside of New England, and that could continue this week.

Best Bet: Chicago Bears -3 spread (-105 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)

More Patriots vs. Bears Picks, Props and Best Bets

Here are a few more Patriots vs. Bears betting angles to consider:

D’Andre Swift Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114 @ FanDuel Sportsbook) - Kyle Monangai is still dealing with an injury, and Swift’s seen 10 targets over his last two games. New England struggles against running backs out of the backfield, and Swift should be featured in the passing game once again.
Luther Burden Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-114 @ FanDuel Sportsbook) - Burden has totaled 13 receptions for 158 yards on 13 targets in two full games with Caleb Williams. Christian Gonzalez is likely to shade Rome Odunze, leaving Burden as the potential top receiving option once again.
Drake Maye Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-114 @ FanDuel Sportsbook) - Maye struggled early this season, but he’s averaging 292.7 passing yards per game over his last three games. I don’t expect New England to run efficiently here, and we’ve seen this Chicago defense falter at times this season.

Make sure you’re comparing prices on the top sports betting apps before placing wagers.

New Users – Get $350 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 7 days

Bet Now FanDuel Promo