Packers vs. Steelers Prediction, Odds and Picks: Will Rodgers Play?

Written By Jason Green | Published at August 13, 2026
Packers vs. Steelers pick and preview for Week 1 preseason action. The big storyline is will Aaron Rodgers play against his former team.
Jan 12, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) warms up before an AFC Wild Card Round game against the Houston Texans at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

In the first preseason game for both teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers play host to the Green Bay Packers. The big question for this game is whether Aaron Rodgers will play against his former team.

These teams faced off last season in Pittsburgh, with the Packers beating the Steelers 35-25.

The top US sportsbooks have the Steelers as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 39.5.

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Back together 

Mike McCarthy is the new head coach of the Steelers, and he reunites with Aaron Rodgers, who stated this will be his last season. They were together in Green Bay from 2006 to 2018 and won Super Bowl XLV.

Will he Play or Won’t He? 

McCarthy stated that he wanted Rodgers to take 30-40 snaps in the couple of preseason games, which is a lot for a starting QB. Rodgers balked at that a bit, and McCarthy stepped back from his assertion, saying the legendary QB's playing would be a game-time decision. However, I would think that with Rodgers facing his old team in Pittsburgh, he will see some time under center.

Getting Love in Pittsburgh 

While it remains to be seen if Rodgers will play, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said his starting QB Jordan Love will play.

Lloyd’s Time to Shine 

Green Bay RB MarShawn Lloyd has had limited time on the field in his first two seasons with the Packers because of injury. He has been solid in camp and is currently listed #2 on the depth chart. #1 is Josh Jacobs, who is out with a hamstring injury and is on the hot seat after being arrested for domestic violence, and charges and suspensions may be coming.

Lloyd may not get a ton of reps, but he needs to show what he can do on the field with the Jacobs issue up in the air.

Interesting Battle for Slot Receiver in Pittsburgh 

Roman Wilson and Germie Bernard are battling it out to be the Steelers' slot receiver, which is a key position. Wilson has had the better camp and has the leg up, but each will see significant action in this game.

Steelers Will Look at Young O-Line Players 

The Steelers looked to shore up their offensive line in the last draft, taking offensive tackles Max Iheanachor in the first round and Gennings Dunker in the third round. Their play will be key in the preseason, as the offensive line has question marks heading into the season, which is not good for the 42-year-old Rodgers.

The Backups will Fight

While some starters may see action in this game, some will not, and the backups will get most of the reps. This is the time for them to step up to try to secure a roster spot. The running back position for Green Bay will be looked at hard in this game, as will the wide receiver and offensive line positions for Pittsburgh.

Packers vs. Steelers Picks 

While Rodgers has said preseason games are not for him, I still see him playing in this game. I also see him getting a decent number of reps, and he will get his juices flowing facing his former team. He will play well, and while Pittsburgh has issues, the Packers may have more and lost some key guys in the offseason. Look for a close contest here, but at home and with Rodgers seeing action, take the Steelers to win and cover.

Our prediction: Steelers -2.5 BetMGM, -110

Total (Over/Under) 39.5 points

The total has gone up since the opening lines were released, as many, including me, think Rodgers will see a decent amount of action. New Pittsburgh head coach Mike McCarthy has also started more players than most coaches in preseason games, and in his career, he has done so over 55% of the time in the preseason. The total went Over when these teams met in the regular season last year, and it will go Over in this preseason game.

Our prediction: Over 39.5 points BetMGM, -110

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