Packers vs. Patriots Prediction, Picks & Odds for Nov. 8: No Ground Game
My Packers vs. Patriots prediction is ready for a very interesting Sunday matchup. The New England Patriots host the Green Bay Packers at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, at 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox.
Both teams enter 5-3, and neither has been able to run the football with any consistency. I'll break down the odds, the trends, and my best bets for this one below.
Packers vs. Patriots Odds
Green Bay and New England are both 5-3, so something has to give on Sunday. Here are the Packers vs. Patriots odds from FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Spread: Packers +3 (-110) / Patriots -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Packers (+138) / Patriots (-164)
- Total (Over/Under): Over 44.5 (-110) / Under 44.5 (-110)
New England is a field-goal favorite at home, and at -164, the Patriots carry an implied win probability of about 62.1%, per our implied probability calculator. The total of 44.5 is middle of the road, so oddsmakers aren't expecting a shootout. You can track every game on the board with the latest NFL odds.
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- Jordan Love has thrown 16 touchdown passes and six interceptions.
- Christian Watson has 708 receiving yards, and Matthew Golden has 619.
- Golden leads the team with a 25% target share and a 40% air-yard share.
- Green Bay ranks fifth in defensive EPA per play and 16th in offensive EPA per play.
- Josh Jacobs is averaging just 2.3 yards per carry since returning.
Green Bay has really no run game. Even with Jacobs back, it's been nonexistent, and the offensive line has struggled to protect Love. He's been running for his life pretty much the entire season.
Part of the reason the passing numbers look decent is that the Packers can't run the football. Still, Golden and Watson are extremely talented, and you sprinkle in Tucker Kraft, and this offense has weapons. That trio combines for just over 60% of Green Bay's target share, so it's a pretty condensed tree.
The defense is the bigger story. Plenty of people still view Green Bay as a bad defensive unit, but defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon has done a fantastic job turning things around after a slow start.
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- Drake Maye has thrown 15 touchdown passes and eight interceptions.
- Maye should eclipse 2,000 passing yards for the season on Sunday.
- New England ranks ninth in offensive EPA per play and 17th in defensive EPA per play.
- The Patriots run (on average) the second-most man/gap concept rushing plays in the NFL.
- Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging 3.8 yards per carry.
Maye has settled in after a slow start. The bad news is that AJ Brown's Patriots tenure has been a disaster due to injuries, and he's confirmed out again for Sunday.
New England has been shuffling pass catchers in and out all year. Expect DeMario "Pop" Douglas, who's having a true breakout season in Brown's absence, to see his number called a lot. Offensively, the edge goes to the Patriots, but the Patriots' odds don't account for how one-dimensional this offense could become.
Packers vs. Patriots Prediction: Under 44.5 (-110)
I like the Under in this one quite a bit. It's going to be tough sledding, and both teams could be left one-dimensional.
New England's ground game lives on man and gap concepts, and Green Bay has been elite against them, allowing just 2.85 yards per carry against those types of rushing plays. That's New England's bread and butter. Honestly, I'm not sure the Patriots have a bread and butter. It's more like just bread.
Stevenson has been solid but not a game-breaker, and TreVeyon Henderson is out of the picture. On the flip side, Jacobs doesn't look good, and he's never been super efficient anyway.
That's why my Packers vs. Patriots prediction is the Under. Both offenses should face plenty of second- and third-and-long situations and be behind the sticks all game. We might see a splash play or two, but I see struggles on both sides. If you're new to totals, check out our Over/Under betting guide. I'll take the Under at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Bet: Under 44.5 points DraftKings, -110
More Packers vs. Patriots Picks, Props and Best Bets
Here are my other Packers vs. Patriots picks, including one of my favorite Packers vs. Patriots props.
- Rhamondre Stevenson Under 54.5 rushing yards: FanDuel, -113 – It's a pretty low bar to clear, and Henderson is out. But Green Bay has been so good against exactly the type of runs New England uses most, and Stevenson is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. I can't see an efficient game out of him.
- Packers +3: BetMGM, -105 – I'm not sure what really separates these teams, even with the Patriots getting the home-field bump. I like Green Bay's defense and its advantage up front against New England's preferred rushing style. A field goal is a bonus here, and a splash play is more likely to decide this one than any real gap in talent. I'll happily take the points with the road dog at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Line shopping is key for Packers vs. Patriots prop bets and all NFL prop bets, so compare prices at the top NFL betting sites before locking in your Packers vs. Patriots best bets.
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- Date: Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026
- Start Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
- TV and Streaming Options: Fox
That's my Packers vs. Patriots prediction, along with my best bets. Good luck, and don't forget to grab the latest sportsbook promos before kickoff.
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