Lions vs. Bills Prediction, Odds & Picks for Sept. 17: Detroit Can Keep TNF Close
The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills meet Thursday night in one of the most intriguing NFL matchups of the week. Buffalo enters with plenty of momentum after an explosive offensive performance against Houston, while Detroit is still trying to rediscover the level it reached a couple of seasons ago when it looked like one of the best teams in football. This is a clash between two playoff-caliber teams.
There is still too much talent on the Lions roster to completely dismiss that ceiling. Jared Goff remains a quality quarterback, Amon-Ra St. Brown can change a game through the air, and Jahmyr Gibbs gives Detroit one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the league. Buffalo deserves to be favored at home, but 5.5 points feels like a little too much in a game that should feature plenty of offense.
My Lions vs. Bills Prediction has Detroit keeping this within one score even if Buffalo ultimately finds a way to win.
Lions-Bills Betting Odds
Buffalo enters Thursday Night Football as a fairly significant home favorite.
- Spread: Lions +5.5 | Bills -5.5
- Moneyline: Lions +194 | Bills -239
- Total: Over 54.5 (-119) | Under 54.5 (-105)
The moneyline makes it clear that sportsbooks view Buffalo as the much more likely winner, and that is understandable after what the Bills showed in their opener. They scored 36 points against Houston and survived a 36-31 shootout, immediately reminding everyone how difficult this offense can be to contain.
Detroit is coming off a close 31-30 win over New Orleans, so the Lions have already shown that their games can turn into track meets as well. That matters when looking at a total as high as 54.5 on most sports betting apps. It is a large number, but neither offense needs much help getting into the 30s on the right night.
The spread is where I see the most value when scanning the odds. Detroit can lose by a field goal or even four or five points and still cash the ticket, which gives us some protection against Buffalo's home-field advantage and overall offensive ceiling.
All odds via BetMGM.
Lions-Bills Game Prediction
Buffalo looked phenomenal in its first game, and there is no reason to pretend otherwise. Putting up 36 points against Houston was a statement, especially given how highly regarded that Texans defense has been.
Still, one huge offensive performance does not mean the Bills are going to score at will every single week. Thursday night games can be strange, and Detroit has enough talent on both sides of the ball to make this much more competitive than the spread might suggest.
The Lions have not quite gotten back to the level they reached a couple of seasons ago, but many of the core pieces that made that team dangerous are still in place. Goff gives Detroit stability at quarterback, and he has more than enough talent around him to keep the offense moving.
St. Brown remains one of the league's most reliable receivers and can consistently turn short and intermediate catches into meaningful gains. Then there is Gibbs, who gives Detroit a true home-run threat out of the backfield.
That does not mean Buffalo cannot win. The Bills are home, their offense is rolling, and they have plenty of reasons to be confident. I just do not think there is a big enough gap between these rosters for Buffalo to be laying more than a field goal.
If Detroit loses 31-28 or 34-30, the Lions still cover. That type of outcome feels very realistic.
Best Bet: Lions +5.5
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The over is the second play I like in this game.
A total of 54.5 is high by NFL standards, but Buffalo has already shown the type of scoring ceiling it has. The Bills just put up 36 points, and when that offense is clicking, it can do most of the work required to cash an over this large. Detroit is more than capable of contributing on the other side.
The Lions scored 31 in their opener, and their collection of offensive playmakers makes them difficult to completely shut down. Goff does not need to be spectacular for Detroit to put up points. If the offensive line holds up and Gibbs is creating explosive plays, the Lions can move the ball methodically and still generate touchdowns.
There is also a game-script element worth considering. If Buffalo gets out to an early lead, Detroit will have to become more aggressive offensively. That can create more possessions, more passing attempts and ultimately more scoring opportunities for both sides.
If Detroit is the team that starts quickly, Buffalo has already shown it can respond in a shootout.
That is why the total does not scare me even at 54.5. Something like 31-28 gets us over, and neither score feels unreasonable based on what these teams are capable of producing.
The second piece of my Lions vs. Bills Prediction is Over 54.5. Buffalo's offense is simply too explosive to expect a low-scoring game, while Detroit has enough weapons to make sure the Lions contribute their share.
Best Bet: Over 54.5 (-119)
Why Detroit Can Keep It Close
The biggest argument for Buffalo covering is that the Bills may simply be the better team right now. They looked sharper in Week 1, they are playing at home, and the offense appears capable of overwhelming opponents when it gets going.
But laying 5.5 points requires more than simply believing Buffalo wins.
Detroit has enough talent to avoid getting run off the field. The Lions can score, they have established veterans at premium positions, and there are pieces on the defense capable of creating turnovers or changing drives with one big play.
Buffalo may ultimately be the team celebrating at the end of the night, but Detroit does not need to win outright for this bet to work. The Lions only need to stay competitive, and there is enough offensive firepower on this roster to make that a reasonable expectation.
Final Lions-Bills Picks
This feels like a Thursday night game that has a real chance to turn into one of the highest-scoring matchups of the week.
Buffalo should be able to score. That part is not difficult to envision after what the Bills did against Houston. The bigger question is whether Detroit can do enough on the road to prevent Buffalo from creating separation.
I think the answer is yes.
My preferred side is Detroit +5.5, while Over 54.5 is the total play. Buffalo may win the game outright, but I am expecting a close, high-scoring Thursday Night Football matchup that comes down to the final few possessions.
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