Jaguars vs. Ravens TNF Week 9 Parlay Picks & Player Props
Our Jaguars vs. Ravens TNF Week 9 parlay picks offer NFL bettors intriguing value in a showdown between two AFC teams seemingly headed in different directions.
Jacksonville enters at 5-2 and sits atop the AFC South. Meanwhile, Baltimore was just forced to make a trade after potentially losing their top two quarterbacks for the season.
Our favorite player props and same-game parlay picks break down key betting value using FanDuel Sportsbook odds. Here is everything you need to know before locking in your wagers for kickoff.
Best Jaguars vs. Ravens TNF Week 9 Parlay Picks for Nov. 5
According to the latest NFL odds, the Jaguars are 10-point road favorites despite their lead running back being listed as questionable. That's because the Ravens will turn to third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano, an undrafted rookie.
With oddsmakers expecting a fairly lopsided outcome, we can lean into that game script to uncover value in the market.
Baltimore relies more heavily on their backup running back in clear passing situations, and Jacksonville is expected to score significantly more than Baltimore, creating an opportunity for correlation in the touchdown markets.
Jaguars vs. Ravens Same-Game Parlay #1: All Three Props (+397)
Here's the complete TNF SGP in one ticket at FanDuel:
- Trevor Lawrence 2+ passing touchdowns
- Justice Hill 3+ receptions
- Parker Washington anytime touchdown
At +397, a $100 bet returns $397 in profit and a $497 total payout. You can run other stake sizes through our Parlay Calculator.
This parlay offers significant correlation based around the expected game script. Ideally, Jacksonville takes an early lead with a couple of touchdown passes from their elite quarterback, with one to his top receiver. As the game wears on, Baltimore leans on a pass-heavy game plan that features Hill out of the backfield.
Parlay: Trevor Lawrence 2+ passing touchdowns, Justice Hill 3+ receptions, Parker Washington anytime TD (FanDuel, +397)
New Users - Get $200 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 4 days Jaguars vs. Ravens Same-Game Parlay #2: Pass-Happy Rookie (+550)
For our second SGP, this time at DraftKings Sportsbook, let’s attack the expected game script from a similar angle, but with a slightly different variation that removes touchdown variance.
The public seems to believe the Ravens will rely on Derrick Henry since they are starting undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano. However, Jacksonville boasts one of football’s top run defenses, and they may not find much success on the ground.
Last week, Fagnano attempted 21 passes after entering the game early in the second quarter. Only four of those attempts came in the fourth quarter because the game was out of reach. If the Ravens keep this one closer than last game's four-score deficit, they should keep throwing and give Fagnano a chance to reach 30 pass attempts.
Next, we’ll add one of our favorite prop bets from earlier, but we’ll boost Justice Hill to an alternate line of 4+ receptions this time, given the correlation.
Finally, we'll add the Jaguars covering the 10-point spread as our final leg, since it fits the correlation and gets us to the desired game script.
At +550, a $100 bet returns $550 in profit and a $650 total payout.
Parlay: Joe Fagnano 30+ pass attempts, Justice Hill 4+ receptions, Jaguars -10 (DraftKings, +550)
More Jaguars vs. Ravens Player Props for TNF
TNF Player Prop #1: Trevor Lawrence 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-125)
Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing at a high level and currently sits in the top five of NFL MVP odds at most sportsbooks.
Through seven games, Lawrence has thrown for 17 touchdowns against four interceptions, and he’s thrown for multiple scores in five of those contests. If you're worried about a blowout, Lawrence just threw three touchdown passes in last week’s 42-7 rout of Indianapolis.
Baltimore has played middling defense this season, ranking 18th in EPA per pass allowed and 19th in defensive passing DVOA. It has allowed 11 passing touchdowns through eight games.
Lawrence and the Jags should be able to exploit this matchup, especially if their defense can cause turnovers against an inexperienced quarterback to give the offense great field position.
Best Bet: Trevor Lawrence 2+ passing touchdowns (FanDuel, -125)
TNF Player Prop #2: Justice Hill 3+ Receptions (+100)
Justice Hill has been a fixture as a receiver out of the backfield for years, often being deployed in the two-minute drill and other obvious passing situations.
In last week’s blowout loss to Buffalo, Hill ran a route on 51% of Baltimore’s dropbacks. He caught 4 of 8 targets and finished with a team-leading 30.8% target share.
Week 8 marked the third consecutive game Hill had at least three receptions. Baltimore trailed in each of those games, and that is the expected game script for this contest.
Jacksonville boasts one of the league's best run defenses, allowing just 3.3 yards per attempt and the fewest rushing yards per game.
Teams have often turned to running backs in the short passing game to compensate for an inability to establish the run. As a result, Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most receptions to running backs this season.
Given the matchup dynamics and expected game script, Hill has a strong chance to catch at least three passes.
Best Bet: Justice Hill 3+ receptions (FanDuel, +100)
New Users - Get $200 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 4 days TNF Anytime Touchdown Pick: Parker Washington (+150)
Parker Washington has been Lawrence’s alpha wide receiver all season. He leads the team with a 25.1% target share and eight red-zone targets, including four targets inside the 10-yard line. That usage has resulted in 27 receptions for 432 yards and four touchdowns through seven games.
Beyond his team-leading red-zone usage, Washington is also a big-play threat. This season, he has 51-yard and 30-yard touchdown receptions. He can truly score from anywhere on the field.
Baltimore has struggled to contain opponents' top receivers this season, allowing a league-worst 10.3 yards per target. Just last week, Buffalo’s DJ Moore burned them for 82 yards and a touchdown.
Washington’s big-play ability and established alpha receiver role give him a good chance to find paydirt against Baltimore.
Best Bet: Parker Washington anytime touchdown (DraftKings, +150)
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