Falcons vs. Saints Prediction, Odds & Picks for Oct. 5: An NFC South Matchup on MNF
The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints will cap off Week 4 of the NFL season with an intriguing NFC South matchup. Our Falcons vs. Saints prediction outlines FanDuel odds, betting trends, injuries, and best bets for Monday Night Football.
The Falcons struggled with quarterback injuries early in the season, but they enter this game at 1-2. Their -17 point differential doesn’t tell the full story of their season. The Saints are a few points away from being 3-0, but they only bring a 1-2 record into this game.
These teams haven’t found much success in the win column yet, but they currently sit in a three-way tie atop the NFC South with the Carolina Panthers. This game will help create some separation in the division.
Falcons vs. Saints Odds
Atlanta enters this game with a 1-2 record, having won its first game with Michael Penix Jr. back. New Orleans also sits at 1-2, and the two teams are tied in the NFC South. The Saints are home favorites via FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Spread: Falcons +2.5 (-115) / Saints -2.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Falcons (+108) / Saints (-126)
- Total: Over 47.5 (-110) / Under 47.5 (-110)
The oddsmakers expect a fairly high-scoring game, with the Saints at a 55.8% implied win probability, according to our Probability Calculator.
Check the latest NFL odds before betting, as lines tend to shift throughout the week.
New Users – Get $250 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 5 days Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends
The Falcons have looked like two different teams early in the 2026 season. They looked like the worst team in the NFL with Cooper Rush and Jack Strand at quarterback, before beating the Green Bay Packers after Michael Penix Jr. returned. Here are some trends for Atlanta this week:
- The Falcons are 1-2 straight up and 1-2 ATS this season.
- The Over is 1-2 in Atlanta games.
- Atlanta leads the NFL with a 54.7% rushing rate.
- Several key defensive players are out this week, while Divine Deablo and Samson Ebukam are questionable.
Atlanta couldn’t find any offensive success with Rush and Strand at quarterback, but that changed when Penix returned. They posted 35 points against Green Bay, though they continue to rely heavily on the run.
They’re missing multiple edge rushers with Jalon Walker on injured reserve and James Pearce Jr. suspended. A.J. Terrell Jr. was placed on injured reserve, and he’ll continue to miss time. Deablo and Ebukam could miss this game, which could leave this defense extremely thin.
Find more Atlanta Falcons odds here.
New Orleans Saints Betting Trends
The Saints are only nine total points away from being 3-0 this season. They lost in overtime to the Detroit Lions in Week 1 before beating the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2. They dropped their Week 3 game against the Las Vegas Raiders, moving to 1-2. Here are some New Orleans trends for this week:
- The Saints are 1-2 straight up and 2-1 ATS this season.
- The Over is 2-1 in New Orleans games.
- New Orleans is averaging the third-most passing yards per game (281.3).
- Carl Granderson, Kaden Elliss, and Anfernee Jennings have been ruled out, while Pete Werner is questionable.
Like Atlanta, New Orleans is dealing with a plethora of injuries throughout its defense. They could be without the majority of their linebackers in this game, and they’ve already struggled to defend the run in 2026.
The Saints have played competitively in all of their games, though. Their OT loss to Detroit and upset win over Baltimore have been two of the season's more surprising results in the NFL.
Find more New Orleans Saints odds here.
Falcons vs. Saints Prediction: Over 47.5 (-110)
The Over is my favorite Falcons vs. Saints prediction.
Both teams are decimated by injuries, especially on defense. They will also be able to attack the opposing defense in the manner they want throughout the game.
The Saints want to throw the ball, and that’s going to play well into this game. The Falcons are missing multiple members of their best pass rush and their lockdown cornerback. Granted, they still feature an elite safety duo, but the Saints should find plenty of success with Tyler Shough and company.
Atlanta wants to run the ball, and New Orleans has already ruled out several key members of its front seven. They could also be without Werner, who hasn’t practiced yet this week. The Saints have been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this season, and that’s unlikely to change this week.
Best Bet: Falcons/Saints Over 47.5 Points (-115 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
More Falcons vs. Saints Picks, Props and Best Bets
Here are a few more Falcons vs. Saints betting angles to consider:
- Bijan Robinson Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-114 @ FanDuel Sportsbook) - The Saints are allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season, ranking near the bottom of the NFL. Michael Penix adds another dimension to this offense, but they want to lean heavily on their running backs.
- Chris Olave Over 85.5 Receiving Yards (-114 @ FanDuel Sportsbook) - I have some concerns that the Falcons play two-high throughout the game, specifically to limit the deep ball. But without Terrell, Atlanta lacks an obvious cornerback matchup to slow down Olave.
- New Orleans Saints Moneyline (-126 @ FanDuel Sportsbook) - This is a close matchup, but the Saints will benefit from home-field advantage. Penix looked great in Green Bay last week, but he hasn’t been nearly as good on the road, historically.
Make sure you’re comparing prices on the top sports betting apps before placing wagers.
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Falcons vs. Saints Broadcast Info
- Date: Monday, Oct. 5, 2026
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome - New Orleans, LA
- TV and streaming: ESPN
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