Falcons vs. Packers Prediction, Odds & Picks for Sept. 24: Green Bay Covers
On Thursday night in a Week 3 NFC matchup, the Green Bay Packers play host to the Atlanta Falcons. In our Falcons vs. Packers prediction, we'll break down the latest odds, betting trends, our picks, and some good-value player props.
The Falcons fell to 0-2 on the young season, getting smoked in their last game by the Carolina Panthers, 34-3. However, there is hope as quarterback Michael Penix Jr. returns under center for the first time in about 10 months after a knee injury. The Packers got their first victory of the season in their last game — a 20-17 overtime win over the New York Jets.
Falcons vs. Packers Odds
Here are the odds for this NFC clash at BetMGM Sportsbook:
- Spread: Falcons +4.5 (-108) / Packers -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Falcons (+210) / Packers (-250)
- Total (Over/Under): Over 4 (-110) / Under 43 (-108)
The Packers are the betting favorites and must win by 5 points or more to cover the spread and win the bet. Conversely, for the Falcons to cover, they must win outright or lose by four points or fewer.
For the moneyline, you are simply betting on which team will win the game. So, using $100 as an example, you are betting $250 to win $100 on the favored Packers and $100 to win $210 on the underdog Falcons.
You can find more information in our detailed moneyline betting guide.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends
- The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in both games this season.
- Dating back to last season, they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The total has gone Under in four of their last five games, including both games this season.
Atlanta has been the underdog in both games this season, which isn't surprising since they started their third-string QB, Cooper Rush, in both games. Also, not surprising they are underdogs against the Packers, who won last week, are at home, and made the playoffs last season.
Again, it is not surprising that both games went Under, with Rush playing less than stellar and Atlanta scoring 17 points in Week 1 and only 3 points in the Week 2 loss.
While it is early in the season, the top US sportsbooks offer futures, such as Super Bowl odds and NFL division winner odds.
Green Bay Packers Betting Trends
- The Packers are also 0-2 ATS in their first two games this season.
- Dating back to last season, they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
- They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games
- They have an Over record of 5-3 in their last 10 games and 1-1 this season.
Green Bay lost their final five games of last season and the first one this campaign before their win over the Jets. They have not been a good bet, covering the spread only once in their last six games. Their total went Over in the first game, where they gave up 39 points in a loss to the Minnesota Vikings. It went Under last week against the Jets in a game where they gave up only 285 yards, but they had only 199 yards and were 1-for-9 on third down.
Check out our many sports betting guides for now to learn more about different markets, such as the spread and totals.
Falcons vs. Packers Prediction: Green Bay -4.5 (-110)
Neither team has covered the spread in both games this season, but the Packers are a better bet at home.
Green Bay QB Jordan Love had only 145 passing yards last week but was facing a Jets pass defense that leads the NFL after two games. He threw for 387 yards in the season opener and will have another big game against a Falcons team that gave up 272 passing yards last week and ranks 23rd in pass defense. Love will be doing most of the work, as the Packers rank dead last in rushing yards per game.
Penix Jr. returns after being out since last November with a knee injury. Atlanta will be careful with him and will lean on star RB Bijan Robinson, who leads the team in rushing yards and receiving yards. He may put up some good numbers, but not huge ones on the ground, facing a Packers team that gave up only 67 rushing yards to the Jets last week.
Despite being shorthanded and missing a couple of stars in RB Josh Jacobs and DE Micah Parsons, Love will have a big game, and the defense will get it done against an Atlanta team that has totaled 16 points in two games.
The Packers will win and cover, moving to 2-1 on the season, sending the Falcons to their third straight loss.
While the public has heavily backed the Packers in the moneyline (93%), betting $250 to win $100 is pretty risky. That is why I am sticking with the spread, which has better payout odds, and the public has backed it 53% to 47%.
You can always check out our NFL betting odds for the latest odds for this game and for the rest of the Week 3 action.
More Falcons vs. Packers Picks, Props and Best Bets
- Jordan Love 2+ TDs: (-112, DraftKings) – Love has passed for two TDs in each of the first two games. He will air it out in this game with the struggling ground game and facing an Atlanta pass defense that ranks 23rd in the league.
- Bijan Robinson 130+ rushing and receiving yards: (+110, FanDuel) – Robinson did not have over 130 rushing and receiving yards last week but did in Week 1 and will be the focal point of the Atlanta offense with Michael Penix Jr. returning from injury.
- Christian Watson 75+ receiving yards: (+110, BetMGM) – Watson only had 41 receiving yards last week, but he was facing the Jets and their top-ranked pass defense and a suspect Atlanta pass defense; he will have a bigger game like in Week 1, where he had 147 receiving yards.
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170,000 GC + 7 SC Falcons vs. Packers Broadcast Info
- Date: Thursday, Sept. 24
- Start Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis.
- TV and Streaming Options: Prime Video
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