Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction, Odds & Picks for Nov. 1: Broncos Tighten Up AFC West Race
The Kansas City Chiefs make the trip to the Mile-High City to face the Denver Broncos in an AFC West showdown Sunday afternoon. We share our Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction, break down the odds, and offer our picks for the game.
Kansas City suffered their first loss of the season as they fell 20-3 on the road to the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday in their previous game. The Chiefs failed to cover the line as a 2.5-point underdog in that contest. Denver comes in off a 30-16 road win over the Arizona Cardinals in their previous game last Sunday. The Broncos covered the line as a 5.5-point favorite in that contest. Denver has won three of the last four meetings between the teams. However, it was Kansas City earning a 31-10 home win in the first matchup this season on September 14, 2026.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Odds
Kansas City was rolling with five straight victories but that came to a screeching halt in the Emerald City. The Chiefs failed to reach the red zone in the contest against the Seahawks. Kenneth Walker III was held in check with 14 carries for 36 yards in the game. Despite the defeat, Kansas City is 5-1 on the year and own the edge in the AFC West.
Denver comes into this game with three straight wins as they took down Arizona on the road last week. The Broncos are still looking for some explosive plays as they’ve been lacking this season. Denver lost the first meeting between the teams this season and a loss here likely puts the AFC West race away for the Chiefs.
Let’s take a look at the latest odds for this contest, courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook.
- Spread: Chiefs -1 (-110) / Broncos +1(-110)
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-115) / Broncos (-105)
- Total (Over/Under): Over 40.5 (-110) / Under 40.5 (-110)
Kansas City is a narrow road favorite for this contest. That’s a bit of a surprise given how poorly the Chiefs performed offensively last week against Seattle. On the flip side, Denver has three straight wins but despite their 5-2 mark, have outscored the opposition by just a field goal. Last week’s win was the Broncos’ first by more than one score. Meanwhile, Kansas City owns a narrow 53.49% implied probability to win this contest.
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- Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.
- Under is 7-0 in Chiefs last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Kansas City started the year with five straight wins, though they had some good fortune. The Chiefs escaped the Colts in overtime back in week 2 and then slipped past the Raiders in week 4. When it came to facing Seattle, the Chiefs were shut down. Patrick Mahomes was neutralized as he played without his top two receivers. Running back Kenneth Walker III, who arguably has been their best player, was stifled by his former teammates.
The Chiefs face a bit of a crisis in their secondary this week. It was announced Saturday that Mansoor Delane, their first-round pick, was downgraded to out with a shoulder injury. In addition, starting nickel L’Jarius Sneed was placed on IR Saturday. That means Kansas City’s secondary has holes in it that may prove problematic.
Kansas City enters this game 11th in the league in passing with an average of 239 yards per game. The Chiefs are an impressive fifth in terms of rushing offense with 141.5 yards per game. How Kristian Fulton and Jadon Canady step in at the corner spots in place of Delane and Sneed goes a long way to determining what happens here.
Broncos Betting Trends
- Under is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 vs. AFC opponents.
- Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 vs. AFC West foes.
Denver earned their third straight win as they took care of Arizona on the road. After struggling to pick up explosive plays, the Broncos scored on a 62-yard run by quarterback Bo Nix. In addition, they struck on a 52-yard catch and run to running back RJ Harvey. Those kind of plays might be harder to come by against a Chiefs team that has played solid defense so far this year. After all, Denver finished with just 176 yards of offense in the first meeting. The Broncos went two of 12 on third down in that contest and turned the ball over twice.
For the year, the Broncos stand just 27th in the league in passing offense with 175.1 yards per contest. Denver is a dismal 24th in the league in rushing offense with 94.9 yards a game. The hope for the Broncos is that rookie fourth-round pick Jonah Coleman can provide a spark in the run game. That is more important now that Harvey was placed on injured reserve Saturday. Denver has to find a way to move the sticks consistently.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction: Under 40.5 (-110)
Offensive firepower has not been the name of the game when these two teams meet. Seven straight meetings fell short of the total. That includes the first meeting this season on the opening Monday night of the season. Denver hit the 30-point threshold twice. In the Cardinals game, five of their six scoring drives started at or beyond their own 34-yard line. All three of their offensive scoring drives started outside their own 35. In addition, they had a pick-six. Basically, the Broncos struggle going long fields.
Kansas City found a run game that they’ve lacked in recent years. That allows them to chew clock and play more methodical football. It’s proven important as Walker III has been a battering ram. Meanwhile, the receivers are one of the worst groups that Patrick Mahomes has had in his career. There’s no one that strikes fear in the hearts of defenses. As a result, neither offense does a ton here and that keeps the game under the number.
More Chiefs vs. Broncos Picks, Props and Best Bets
- Kenneth Walker III Over 85.5 Rushing Yards: (-113, FanDuel) – Don’t let last week’s dud against the Seahawks fool you. Walker III has ripped up the league in his first season in Kansas City. He finished with 23 carries for 173 yards and two scores in the first meeting this season. For the year, he stands second in the league with 701 rushing yards. He cracked the century mark four times already. Kansas City will try to batter Denver into submission with the run game.
- Jonah Coleman Over 41.5 Rushing Yards: (-115, BetMGM) – Coleman just came off injured reserve last week after missing time with an ankle injury. He has just 19 NFL carries to his credit. However, despite that, he outsnapped both J.K. Dobbins and Harvey last week. Coleman had nine carries for 54 yards last week against the Cardinals. If Denver wants to keep Walker III off the field, they’re going to need to move the ball. That starts with Coleman picking up yards on the ground.
- Rashee Rice Over 4.5 Receptions: (+100, FanDuel) – Rice missed the last couple of weeks with a hamstring injury but didn’t carry an injury designation into this game. That’s a boost for Patrick Mahomes, who had issues without his top two receivers. Rice caught at least five balls in six of the eight games he played in 2025. While he caught just two passes in the opener against Denver, that was more because Walker III ran wild. Expect a more committed Denver focus on the run game, which leads to more throws here.
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- Date: Sunday, November 1, 2026
- Start Time: 4:25 pm ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver Colorado
- TV and Streaming Options: CBS or NFL Sunday Ticket
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