Chargers vs. Bills Prediction, Odds & Picks for Sept. 27: Allen Takes Care of Bolts
The Los Angeles Chargers make the long, cross-country trip to western New York to face the Buffalo Bills in a week 3 matchup Sunday afternoon. We share our Chargers vs. Bills prediction, break down the odds, and offer our picks for the game.
Los Angeles was downed 26-14 at home by the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday in their previous game. The Chargers lost outright as a 6.5-point favorite in that contest. Buffalo comes in off a 41-31 home win over the Detroit Lions in their previous game last Thursday. The Bills covered the line as a 4.5-point favorite in that contest. Buffalo has won the last two meetings between the teams, including a 24-22 road win in the most recent matchup on December 23, 2023.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
Los Angeles dropped to 0-2 on the season as they were beaten at home by the Arizona Cardinals and the Raiders in the opening two weeks. The Chargers lost both those games by double digits and sit in the basement of the AFC West.
Meanwhile, on the flip side, Buffalo is 2-0 on the season. The Bills beat the Houston Texans on the road before taking down the Lions at home last week. Buffalo is 2-0 on the year and they stand atop the AFC East after two weeks in the season. The Bills have piled up 77 points in the first two games of the year and Josh Allen is clicking on all cylinders.
Let’s take a look at the latest odds for this contest, courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook.
- Spread: Bills -7 (-115) / Chargers +7 (-105)
- Moneyline: Bills (-350) / Chargers (+275)
- Total (Over/Under): Over 50 (-110) / Under 50 (-110)
Buffalo is a hefty favorite at home for this contest. After beating the Texans on the road and the Lions at home, momentum is on their side. That’s more true after seeing the Chargers lose to two of the teams expected to be among the worst in the league this season in the Arizona Cardinals and the Raiders. Meanwhile, Buffalo has a hefty 77.78% implied probability to win this contest.
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- Chargers have stayed under the number in 17 of their last 21 games in September.
- Chargers are just 4-12 straight up in their last 16 games as more than a 3-point underdog
- Chargers have stayed under the number in each of their last five games.
- Chargers have stayed under the number in each of their last four vs. teams with a winning record.
Los Angeles, even when things were going well for them the last few seasons, struggled to put up numbers in the opening month of the year. The Chargers have stayed under the number in five straight games overall.
In addition, they’ve turned in four straight unders in games against teams with winning records. The Chargers also recorded four straight unders after losing a game straight up. After seeing them score just 14 points in each of their first two games, it’s tough to get excited about them offensively.
In Justin Herbertl’s career as a starting quarterback, he’s been an underdog by more than a field goal 16 times. In those games, the Chargers recorded just four victories. This is a Chargers squad that is playing their third-string left guard in this one with Trey Pipkins and Kayode Awosika out.
In addition, they have a rookie starting at center and a guy in Cole Strange at right guard who was a first round pick in 2022 yet is on his third team in as many years. You have to think that Deone Walker and a Buffalo defensive line that has been effective the first two weeks of the year is licking their chops.
Bills Betting Trends
- Bills are 21-4 in their last 25 games in the opening three games of a season under Josh Allen
- Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their last game
- The Bills covered the spread in each of their last four games when playing with a rest advantage
- The Bills have won each of their last 17 home games against opponents on a losing streak
Buffalo showed that they can do damage on offense regardless of who is on the other side of the field. Houston was the top scoring defense in the league last season and the Bills hung 36 on them on the road. Meanwhile, Buffalo buried Detroit early, leading 27-7 in the second quarter, and ended up putting 41 points on the board in that win. The Bills have an extra three days of rest and they were at home. This is a 10 am PT start for the Chargers, so their body clocks may be a bit of whack here as well.
Josh Allen set the world on fire in the first two weeks of the year. He has nine touchdowns and no turnovers in those two games. That makes him just the third quarterback to total nine scores without a turnover in the first two games of the season. The other two were Peyton Manning and Patrick Mahomes. Both men won the MVP in their season accomplishing that feat.
Chargers vs. Bills Prediction: Buffalo -7 (-115)
While Buffalo’s defense has surrendered 31 points in both games this season, a closer look is needed. The Bills have seven sacks on the ledger and the Lions scored 21 second half points last week yet never got closer than 10. Buffalo has 77 points on the board in the first two weeks, making them the highest-scoring team in the league.
Meanwhile, we saw the Chargers muster just 14 points against both the Cardinals and the Raiders. Los Angeles turned the ball over five times in their first two games this season. The interior of the Chargers’ offensive line is going to have their hands full trying to contain Deone Walker, with or without Ed Oliver lined up next to him. Injuries are too much for the Bolts to handle and Allen’s torrid start to the year continues as he racks up big numbers again here.
As of 1 am ET Sunday morning, 97% of moneyline bets were on the Bills. In addition, 75% of the spread bets were on Buffalo -7 while 72% of bets were on the under for this contest.
More Chargers vs. Bills Picks, Props and Best Bets
- Josh Allen anytime TD: (-135, BetMGM) – Allen has four rushing scores already this season. He was active in the run game last week against the Lions, finishing with 14 rushing attempts (including kneeldowns) for 69 yards. Allen has 92 yards on 20 carries. When you’re scoring on 20% of your rushing attempts and stand in the top 20 in NFL history in terms of rushing scores, it’s a good prop to tail.
- Justin Herbert Over 230 passing yards: (-111, DraftKings) – Herbert hasn’t looked good the first two weeks of the year. He threw for 209 yards against Arizona before being held to 192 yards against the Raiders last week. With that said, you have to figure that the Chargers are playing from behind a lot on Sunday. That means Herbert is going to be chucking the ball all over the place. It may be garbage time but if he gets over the number, it’s all cash for you.
- Dalton Kincaid Over 56.5 receiving yards: (-113, FanDuel) – Kincaid is sixth in the league entering Sunday in receiving yards and three of the guys ahead of him (Drake London, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden) all played their third game Thursday. Kincaid has seen 41.7% (five of 12) receptions go for at least 20 yards in the first two weeks. This seems like a gift number.
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- Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
- Start Time: 1 pm ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
- TV and Streaming Options: FOX or NFL Sunday Ticket
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