Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Picks for Sept. 14: Mahomes is Back!
What a killer game for the first Monday night action of the NFL season, with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Denver Broncos in an AFC West clash. In this Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction, we break down the key game info, the latest odds, and share our betting picks.
Can the Broncos keep ascending? They unseated the Chiefs as the AFC West champions last season before losing to the New England Patriots in the AFC title game.
The Chiefs failed to make the playoffs last season for the first time since 2014, mainly because quarterback Patrick Mahomes went down with a season-ending knee injury. The three-time Super Bowl MVP and two-time MVP winner is back, as KC looks to get back to being a dominant force in the league.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Chiefs as the slight favorites at -2.5 with a total of 43.5.
Opening up the Offense
Over the last couple of seasons, the Broncos have run a conservative offense under head coach Sean Payton. However, he looks to open it up and liven up the passing game by giving offensive coordinator Davis Webb play-calling duties.
Bo Nix (3,931 yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs) was solid last season, and the team brought in a legit No. 1 wide receiver in Jaylen Waddle, who had over 900 receiving yards last season.
J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey combined for 1,312 rushing yards, and Nix and this duo have the fortune of playing with what is arguably the best offensive line in the NFL.
The Chiefs’ pass rush is not very good, with Chris Jones leading the team last season with only seven sacks. A lack of pass rush will put a lot of pressure on Kansas City's secondary, which ranked 10th last season in pass defense.
The Broncos beat the Chiefs twice in 2025, but the game at Arrowhead Stadium was without Mahomes under center.
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While Patrick Mahomes is back, he faces a stiff test against a Broncos pass rush that led the league last season in sacks. That's even more worrisome for a Chiefs team that already has a banged-up offensive line that was less than impressive in the preseason.
The receiving corps for the Chiefs is decent, and Rashee Rice will be counted on as he aims to rebound from last season when he was suspended and injured. The big addition for the team was Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III, who rushed for over 1,000 yards last season.
Denver's pass rush is great, and their overall defense is too; last season, they ranked seventh in the league against the pass and fourth against the run.
In the last two games that Mahomes faced the Broncos, he put up two TD passes and one INT. He's coming off a major knee injury, and his mobility will be tested often in this game.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Predictions
Best Bet: Broncos to cover (+2.5, FanDuel)
Many analysts think that with Mahomes back, the Chiefs will return to being a dominant team. I am not so sure. While they may be good, they are not elite like they once were. Many US sportsbooks have the Chiefs with a higher win total this season than the Broncos.
In this game, they will face a great Broncos defense and an elite pass rush, and that will cause them problems. The Denver offense may be a work in progress, but its defense remains the team's strength. The defense will contain Mahomes in this game, and the Broncos will not only cover the short spread, but look for them to get the win as well.
Best Bet: Under 43.5 points (-108, FanDuel)
When these teams met last season, the total went Under both times, and that is the pick I am leaning towards for this Monday night matchup.
Mahomes is back, but he will be pressured all game and won't have many chances to go downfield. The Chiefs will lean on the run game with Walker III, and that will eat up the clock. Denver's solid defense will get it done in this game, and while the offense will be ok, it won't light up the scoreboard. Look for a lower-scoring game at Arrowhead tonight, which means the Under is the solid pick.
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