Bills vs. Browns Prediction, Odds and Picks for Aug. 22: Buffalo a Live Dog
The second full week of the NFL preseason rolls on and it brings a matchup of AFC squads when the Buffalo Bills face a Rust Belt rival in the Cleveland Browns Saturday afternoon. Buffalo comes in off a 29-14 home win over Carolina last Saturday in their preseason opener. The Bills covered the line as a 2.5-point favorite in that contest. Cleveland kicked off preseason play with a 34-10 shellacking at the hands of the Bears on the road last Saturday. The Browns failed to cover the line as a 2.5-point underdog in that contest.
With all that on the table, let’s take a look at some of the other relevant information for this one ahead of kickoff.
You can follow the latest NFL Odds as kickoff approaches. Preseason numbers can shift quickly once teams reveal their plans for starters and key backups. Here's more Steelers-Jets game information, with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Matchup: Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 22
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland
- Spread: Browns -3 (-108), Bills +3 (-112)
- Moneyline: Browns -162, Bills +136
- Total: 37.5
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Buffalo has a new coaching staff after the team parted ways with Sean McDermott. Early results were promising as the Bills’ starters were effective in their time on the field in the preseason opener against the Panthers. The starting offense drove for scores on both possessions they were on the field. Meanwhile, the defense forced three-and-outs on Carolina’s first three possessions. The Bills rolled up a 396-201 advantage in total offense and racked up 27 first downs to the Panthers’ 18. In addition, Buffalo forced the lone turnover, setting up a fourth quarter score that put the game away.
The expectation is that, if the Bills saw enough from their starters in the joint practices, that their normal guys would sit here. That makes sense as Josh Allen, James Cook, DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir and company don’t need to get banged up in a meaningless preseason tilt. Therefore, Kyle Allen (14 of 16, 108 yards) and Shane Buechele (six of nine, 50 yards) expect to see the majority of the snaps under center in this one. It also gives a chance for Ian Wheeler (seven carries, 41 yards, TD) and Frank Gore Jr. (five carries, 38 yards, TD) to make an impact. On defense, rookies Kaleb Elarms-Orr and TJ Parker look to continue making a name for themselves.
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Cleveland is starting over with Todd Monken as coach but the preseason opener looked like same chapter, different verse for the Browns. Their starters saw action early and gave the Browns a 10-0 advantage in the opening seconds of the second quarter. However, the wheels fell off after that as Cleveland surrendered the game’s final 34 points to lose going away. When all was said and done, the Browns lost the total offense battle by a 430-314 margin and gave up 22 first downs while picking up 13. Meanwhile, Cleveland turned the ball over three times, which led to 10 Chicago points, while recording just one takeaway.
Like the Bills, the Browns plan on resting their starters should they see enough in the joint practice stage. That means Deshaun Watson likely doesn’t take the field here. Instead, Shedeur Sanders (six of 11, 79 yards, INT) and Dillon Gabriel (five of eight, 23 yards, INT) will see plenty of action. Watson is the leader in the clubhouse for the starting job though that’s nothing to write home about. Cleveland’s run game looked uninspiring against the Bears outside of rookie Davion Booth (four carries, 53 yards) in the contest. In addition, Quinshon Judkins is getting back up to speed after ending last season injured.
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Bills +3
Even with both teams more than likely sitting their starters in this contest, one has to look deeper. Cleveland’s ones aren’t at the same level as Buffalo’s, so it only makes sense that the twos and threes aren’t at the same level either. Joe Brady has familiarity with a good chunk of his roster, having been the offensive coordinator the last few seasons before getting promoted. Meanwhile, Monken still has a lot of pieces to try and figure out in the puzzle. Sanders and Gabriel didn’t overwhelm anyone playing in the first preseason game. While the Browns are at home, I see Buffalo threatening to win this one outright. Playing it safe, you can take the field goal on the road.
Over 37.5
Both teams went over the number in their preseason openers. The Bills put up 29 points, putting them right near their actual regular season average the last few seasons. Granted, it took a meaningless Carolina score with 20 seconds remaining to get there but all that matters is it did. Cleveland saw their twos and threes torched by the Bears’ backups, leading to a combined 44 points in their opener. That put the game over the 39.5-point number set for that game. However, this one comes in at even a lower number than each team’s preseason week one matchup. After seeing what the Browns’ backups did last week, Buffalo’s group should take advantage. Take the over in this contest as a result.
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