Some of the biggest games of the regular season remain in the final two weeks with teams pushing for the playoffs, division titles and top seeds for an opening-round playoff bye. While much of the focus is on the Week 16 betting lines and the major matchups that will decide playoff positioning, there are also some big bets to be decided in the NFL season win totals market.
NFL season win totals already decided
So far, 22 team win totals have already been determined through Week 15. Here’s a look at the tickets already decided based on the closing number at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Note that the Saints (11-3) have eclipsed their season win total of 10.5, and New Orleans is still in the chase for the top playoff seed in the NFC. Four teams are 11-3 including the Packers, Seahawks and 49ers. Seattle hosts San Francisco in Week 17 to decide the NFC West champion and determine who gets a first round bye in the upcoming playoffs.
The Falcons and Chargers were the first teams to have their win totals go up in flames this season. Both teams have played better in the second half of the year, but the damage had been done early on.
Still to be determined
New England Patriots (11-3): Need one win over the Bills or Dolphins in the final two weeks to go over their season win total of 11.
Kansas City Chiefs (10-4): Need one win over the Bears in Chicago or at home against the Chargers in Week 17 to go over their season win total of 10.
Dallas Cowboys (7-7): Need two wins to push their season win total of 9. Dallas travels to Philadelphia in Week 16 and plays the Redskins at home in Week 17.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6): The over/under win total is 9, and Pittsburgh is on the road the final two weeks at New York against the Jets and against Baltimore in Week 17.
Tennessee Titans (8-6): Need one win over the Saints or at Houston in Week 17 to go over their season win total of 8.
Indianapolis Colts (6-8): Need one win to exceed their win total of 6.5. Indianapolis hosts Carolina and then goes on the road to Jacksonville in Week 17.
Denver Broncos (5-9): Finish the season with two home games against the Lions and Raiders and must win both to exceed their over/under win total of 6.5.
Oakland Raiders (6-8): Have lost four straight games to fade from the playoff picture. Oakland needs one win in its two remaining road games to exceed the season win total of 9. Oakland plays at LA against the Chargers and at Denver. Next season, the Raiders move to Las Vegas and the new Allegiant Stadium.
Arizona Cardinals (4-9-1): Need to win both games at Seattle and at Los Angeles against the Rams to eclipse their season win total.
Miami Dolphins (3-11): Had the lowest season win total of all NFL teams with an over/under of five wins. Miami needs to win both games to push their season win total. The Dolphins are a favorite for the first time this season in Week 16 against the Bengals and then a double-digit underdog for a record ninth time this season in Week 17 at New England.
Other Week 16 storylines
There are three big games attracting the most interest and action in Week 16 at DraftKings Sportsbook:
Buffalo at New England (-6.5)
The Bills (10-4) and Patriots (11-3) have both clinched playoff spots but Saturday’s game could also decide the AFC East winner. A Patriots win secures New England’s 11th straight division title. The Patriots will be making their record 11th straight playoff appearance.
A Bills win over the Patriots would move Buffalo into a tie for first place. However, if both teams win their Week 17 games against division opponents, each would finish 12-4 overall, split the head-to-head season match-up and each would be 5-1 in the division. The third tie-breaker after head-to-head and division record is best won-lost percentage in common games, and the Patriots (11-2) would edge the Bills (9-3) for the division title if they remain tied after Week 17. New England hosts Miami in Week 17 and Buffalo hosts the New York Jets.
The Bills have already exceeded their over/under season win total of 6.5, and the Patriots need one more win to exceed their season total of 11 wins.
Dallas (-3) at Philadelphia
The Cowboys (7-7) and Eagles (7-7) play their season rematch in Week 16 with Dallas having already beaten the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7. The Cowboys moved up another half-point on Tuesday and are now a three-point road favorite over the Eagles at DraftKings.
Last week’s look-ahead line at FanDuel Sportsbook was Dallas -1. The Cowboys win the division with a victory over the Eagles this week and would be the No. 4 seed in the playoffs likely hosting either the Seahawks or 49ers in the opening round. An Eagles victory moves Philadelphia in front needing a win over the Giants on the road in Week 17 to win the division. An Eagles win over the Cowboys combined with a loss to the Giants and a Cowboys win over the Redskins in Week 17 gives the Cowboys the division; with both teams 8-8, Dallas would win the second tie-breaker with a 5-1 division record versus 4-2 for the Eagles. Both teams have under-achieved to their season win totals with the Eagles unable to reach 10 wins while the Cowboys over/under of 9 wins can only be reached for a push with two wins to finish the regular season.
Green Bay at Minnesota (-4.5)
The Monday night match-up between the Packers (11-3) and Vikings (10-4) will generate big betting action with the Vikings a 4.5-point favorite and the slightly higher-rated team in the current NFL power rankings. Both teams have exceeded their season over/under win total of 9, and a Packers win would secure the NFC North division and keep them in position for a No. 1 or 2 seed in the playoffs heading into Week 17. A Vikings win over the Packers would mean a split of the season series, but the Packers would win the division tiebreaker if they beat the Lions in Week 17. Minnesota needs to beat both the Packers and Bears (Week 17) and have Green Bay lose in Week 17 at Detroit for the Vikings to win the division.