NFL Win Totals: Will NY Giants Make A Leap Under Brian Daboll?
Although the season is still two-plus months away, 2022 NFL win totals are in full swing. Let's dig into the New York Giants odds, gauging if new head coach Brian Daboll's team will break through with fourth-year quarterback Daniel Jones. Click on the odds below if you'd like to bet on Giants NFL win total.
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2022 NFL Win Totals: New York Giants
Over at Caesars Sportsbook, the Giants NFL win totals sit O/U 7 wins — with the over set at +105. It's accrued 73% of the total handle while also accounting for 53% of the ticket count. If you're in a believer in Big Blue, the juiciest odds are at FanDuel Sportsbook, but you're forfeiting push equity on 7 wins (o7.5, +135).
Related: Jets Odds Attracting Large NFL Betting Handle For Win Totals
Making The Case For the Over
For starters, New York should begin the season healthier than the 2021 campaign. The Giants dealt with a variety of injuries to tailback Saquon Barkley, along with wideouts Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney. On top of that, they added Wan’Dale Robinson, a quick-footed, second-round rookie who could start in the slot from the get-go.
Granted, Barkley and Golladay have been hampered by their fair share of wounds, but their respective skillsets are a very intriguing fit under Daboll. He previously served as the Bills offensive coordinator, revolving his scheme around empty backfield sets. Barkley will likely expand his role as a receiver, and the offense should collectively pick up the pace in the process.
Under Joe Judge (and the offensively offensive Jason Garrett), New York ranked in the bottom half of the league (No. 21 overall) in total tempo. That certainly didn't aid its efficiency, generating the NFL's lowest expected points added (EPA) per play over the last two seasons.
EPA is calculated by the expected points scored based on the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play — juxtaposed with the end result.
Improved QB Play On The Horizon?
Sure, the two categories don't always correlate while translating to offensive success. But if Daboll musters a positive connection with the aforementioned Jones, whose turnover concerns (49 of them) are partially attributed to poor play calling, the Giants' offense could make an unexpected leap.
Moreover, Jones will play behind an improved offensive line after first-year general manager Joe Shoen bolstered the interior with Jon Feliciano, Mark Glowinski and Max Garcia. Keep in mind, Andrew Thomas even graded out as the 12th-best tackle in pass protection a season ago (via Pro Football Focus), and New York tacked on first-round pick Evan Neal on the right side.
Defensive Improvements
Under then-defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, New York owned the third-lowest pressure rate and eighth-lowest hurry percentage (via Pro Football Reference), respectively. Not only did it essentially upgrade its liege in the form of ex-Ravens DC Don "Wink" Martindale, but it also selected edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux with its other 2022 first-round selection. Led by a sound front-seven, I'm bullish on this bunch as well.
Schedule
Now, generally speaking, I'm not in favor of overanalyzing schedules — with the possibility of opponents surpassing their own forecast. That's especially the case for New York because every NFC East team possesses a bottom-four strength of schedule.
But it's worth noting that at least one NFL team has gone "worst-to-first," winning its division the season after finishing last or tied for last place in 17 of the last 19 seasons. Could the Giants accomplish that feat this time around?
Giants NFL Win Totals Conclusion
Despite the accolades, I rarely tie up my money in NFL win totals for five-plus months unless the number is unjustifiable. With that being said, plus-money on a high-upside team, like the Giants, is tough to pass up.
I'd even consider taking a swing at New York to make the playoffs (+250) and win the NFC East (+800). My money will likely end up on the Giants against the Titans after looking ahead to Week 1 odds, too.
Giants 2022 Futures
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