NFL Futures: Colts Alternate Win Total Projecting Indianapolis Struggles

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
NFL futures

When discussing NFL futures in the AFC South, the Jaguars have pretty much dominated the conversation. They’re odds-on favorites to take the division after a fantastic 2022. And while I’ve paid some attention to Titans futures in this space, less due has been given to the teams starting the two rookie quarterbacks, the Colts and Texans.

But, when looking over Colts odds, I did find myself with an incredibly bearish outlook. Read on to find out why I locked in a bit on an alternate win total with this team for 2023.

Click any of the odds below to place a wager at the best NFL betting sites.

Analyzing Colts Roster For 2023

Obviously, everything in the NFL starts with a team’s passing offense. And few teams look like they’ll have a lighter punch through the air than Indianapolis.

Anthony Richardson rates as a major question mark at QB. The history of QBs with this sort of accuracy — Richardson completed just 55% of his passes at Florida — at the NFL level is bleak. Sure, success stories like Josh Allen exist, but it took several years for Allen to develop and find his footing.

Mediocre and inexperienced QBs can succeed in terms of wins and losses if they’re blessed with quality surroundings. However, the Colts feature one of the worst pass-catching groups in the NFL. Only Michael Pittman rates as a solid performer. Alec Pierce had a terrible rookie year, Isaiah McKenzie was basically a gadget player whom Buffalo didn’t care to keep around, and let’s not even discuss the team’s tight ends.

The most talented player on the entire roster might be Jonathan Taylor and it seems like he won’t play a snap for them this year.

An offensive line that was one of the league’s best just a few years ago has degraded closer to average.

On defense, the front seven looks decent if Shaq Leonard can recover from an injury-plagued 2022. However, I have major concerns about the secondary, which looks like one of the league’s worst.

The team shipped out Stephon Gilmore. The aging vet has slowed down but still rated as a solid performer in 2022. That has left the Colts with a group PFF rated 31st, and I can’t say I disagree. Currently, the team’s starting corners are listed as JuJu Brents and Dallis Flowers. That’s a second-round rookie and an undrafted second-year player who has fewer than 200 snaps of experience.

Why I Bet Indy’s Alternate Win Total Under For NFL Futures

On the bright side, Indianapolis has one big thing going for them. By our NFL schedule strength calculations, they have one of the easiest schedules in the league. That’ll happen when you both play in the AFC South and draw the NFC South in cross-conference scheduling.

However, the way this team has been built, I can’t help but see an incredibly low floor. Indianapolis seems likely to get bottom-five QB play this season, and without Taylor, they don’t have a two-headed rushing monster that could have at least somewhat mitigated that. A one-two punch of Anthony Richardson and Deon Jackson just doesn’t bring the same oomph.

And it really, really looks like opposing teams should score on this secondary. Richardson only looks like he’ll have any success in a world where defenses need to respect his legs. But if the other team constantly has 20 points in the third quarter and can sit on the Colts passing attack, this team could be in real trouble.

Overall, I’m seeing a highly combustible combination of bad quarterback, bad secondary, playing home games in a dome while building their team win rock fights, and everything directed by an unproven rookie head coach.

Using The Alternate Markets

Despite all that, betting under wins doesn’t really excite me. Again, the Colts might have some wins built into the schedule. Six or so is probably a fair and reasonable median expectation here.

However, because this offense has a really low floor, if the Colts are bad, they could be awful. I’d rather use the alternate market here to cash in big on those outcomes.

Therefore, I went with Under 4.5 wins (+350) on DraftKings Sportsbook.

One can also find a +1400 on Colts to have the worst record at BetMGM, which may be worth a look as well. Working against that, though, are a couple of factors. No. 1, the Cardinals will be incredibly difficult to catch as they have one of the worst rosters in NFL history. No. 2, the Colts have no major incentive to tank down the stretch after already spending a top pick on Richardson, who they hope will develop into a franchise QB even if he struggles in year one.

Best of luck with your NFL futures this season.

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