TheLines Staff: 5 Bets We’ve Made On 2022 NFL Win Totals

Written By Eli Hershkovich on August 31, 2022
win totals

The long-awaited anticipation is almost over, as regular season NFL odds get underway between the Rams and Bills on Sept. 8. But some bettors are still placing their futures wagers, including NFL win totals. So TheLines Staff is here to help with its favorite selections among 2022 win totals odds.

Click on any of the odds below to place a wager.

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Season-Long NFL Win Totals: Staff Bets

Arizona Cardinals Under 8.5 () Wins

(Eli Hershkovich)

Although the betting market has already adjusted the Cardinals’ win total down from a juiced 9.5 to 8.5, it’s warranted. They’re set to face the second-most difficult schedule — with a trio of prolific offenses (Chiefs, Raiders, and Rams) kicking off their 2022 season.

Arizona’s defense also took a sizable hit by parting ways with edge rusher Chandler Jones and linebacker Jordan Hicks, who helped the unit finish tied for the league’s ninth-highest pressure rate in 2021. Should Vance Joseph’s front-seven scuffle with generating heat in the opponent’s backfield this season, his below average secondary is in for a rude awakening against an assortment of elite arms.

Moreover, the Cardinals’ offense will be without Deandre Hopkins (PEDs) for the first six games of the campaign. Former Ravens wideout Marquise Brown and his unreliable hands can only do so much for the unstudious Kyler Murray.

Considering Arizona represents the third-best team in the NFC West (in line with TheLinesNFL power rankings), I’m willing to back the under on its NFL win totals.

New England Patriots Over 8.5 () Wins

(Brett Gibbons)

So, we’re back here.

Like last year, the Patriots are given a win total teetering on .500, but this time they have continuity at the quarterback position. Mac Jones turned in a full-on good rookie season, finishing eighth in success rate (50.5%) and 14th in dropback EPA — both tops among the 2021 rookie class.

These numbers came in spite of having one of the league’s least inspiring receiving corps, which was bolstered this offseason by DeVante Parker.

A few pieces departed — namely top corner J.C. Jackson and two starting-level offensive linemen. However, the majority of the 2021 Patriots (who finished 10-7 and in the AFC Playoff picture) are back. New England also still resides in a division with the New York Jets and an uncertain Dolphins bunch. They also draw the Steelers early. Pittsburgh is undergoing a shift at QB. The Pats also get the Browns without Deshaun Watson, the Lions and the Bears before their bye week.

Also preferable on their schedule is a road tilt with the Cardinals late in the season. From what Arizona’s shown us in the recent past, it’s better to have them late than early.

To assume this team finishes under .500 with a favorable schedule and mostly the same corps as last year feels unwarranted. Bill Belichick has already proven he can lead a successful team in the win totals market without Tom Brady — even if it isn’t contending for Super Bowls.

Related: 5 Things You Need To Know Before Betting On The NFL This Season

Seattle Seahawks Under 5.5 () Wins

(Stephen Andress)

If somebody can find six wins on the Seahawks’ schedule and cashes an Over ticket, I may hire them to pick some stocks for me as well. My goodness, where are the wins? For starters, these 12 games on the schedule:

There’s only five games left after that against the Falcons, Lions, Giants, Panthers and Jets. Are you confident Seattle goes 5-0 in those games? I’m not. Outside of their wide receivers, this is a roster with a bottom-10 unit everywhere else, including coaching. Pete Carroll operates an offense with a high first-down run rate — despite those runs being successful less than one third of the time.

In 12 personnel, those first down run rates were successful less than 25 percent of the time.

The front office is ignorant, too, and has left this team with all the wrong talent investments. Seattle is top five in running back spending and bottom-11 in spending on some positions that are kind of a big deal — QB, OL, DL and CB.

Don’t be shocked if the Seahawks picking first or second in the 2023 draft.

Washington Commanders Under 7.5 () Wins

(Stephen Andress)

For starters, beat reporters are quietly saying the Commanders delivered one of their worst training camp in years.

Secondly, you have to lay juice on the squad — formerly known as the Football Team — to have a better record than last year? Why? Because they added Carson Wentz? That’s hilarious.

A major issue with Washington’s offense the last two years is that it ranked dead last in average depth of target. One problem: Wentz likely won’t fix that. According to Sharp Football, Wentz ranked dead last in accuracy on passes thrown within five yards of the line of scrimmage over the last two seasons. He also ranked dead last in accuracy on passes thrown more than five yards downfield amid the same span.

But wait, there’s more! On third or fourth downs, Wentz ranked No. 29 in accuracy. He also finished No. 24 in dropback EPA in the red zone.

Within the same vicinity, 10.8% of Wentz’s dropbacks ended with a sack or an interception — good for a bottom-10 finish.

Now that sounds like a team I want to lay juice on to be better than last year’s record! Just kidding. Give me plus money on the under for its NFL win totals.

Denver Broncos Under 8.5 (+180) Wins

(Mo Nuwwarah)

First, I want to say I’m in major agreement with Stephen on Washington — more so looking for alternate prices on the scenarios where Wentz hits his floor. I could see a five-win season there — particularly with Chase Young’s availability a major question mark.

So, I’ll pivot to another alternate under I like — this one for a team playing in the toughest division in football. Market prices have the Broncos winning nine or 10 games but I’m skeptical this team is as strong as the market thinks (especially for Super Bowl 57 odds).

The wide receiver corps looks very shaky. Courtland Sutton looked like a diminished player post-ACL tear. Jerry Jeudy was a massive disappointment. KJ Hamler is basically an unknown coming off his own ACL tear. The depth is atrocious. I actually think losing Tim Patrick was pretty big here, as well as not hanging onto tight end Noah Fant.

The defense should be solid based on the personnel — with the secondary certainly looking excellent. However, I think people may be underrating the loss of Vic Fangio here. He’s a defensive genius and I don’t expect the group to perform to the same level they would have if he remained.

Finally, the elephant in the room that nobody seems to be talking about: what if Russell Wilson’s days as top-10 QB are over? His stretch of elite play looks more and more like a flash in the pan. It lasted about a season-plus. He was just solid before that and has been pretty bad since. Granted, he dealt with a finger injury in 2021.

In a tough division with a rookie head coach, I see a pretty strong potential left tail to the Broncos’ outcomes and like whatever alternate under you’re comfortable betting.

Staff NFL Futures Discussions From TheLines

Continue the discussion in our Discord betting chat, where bettors discuss their favorite NFL bets, strategies and research. Follow TheLines on Twitter, too.

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich