NFL Wild Card Weekend Odds, Spreads, Picks: Ravens Vs. Steelers Spread Soars
With the 2024 NFL regular season wrapped up, the bracket is set for the road to New Orleans and the Lombardi Trophy. The Chiefs and Lions, favored atop the Super Bowl odds board, received a first-round bye. The focus is on the 12 teams taking the field this weekend, including the Ravens vs. Steelers and the Eagles vs. Packers. The opening round concludes Monday night as the Rams host the Vikings. Let’s assess the odds for the NFL Wild Card Weekend, highlighting the initial point spreads and how they’ve shifted.
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NFL wild card odds: spread, moneyline, total
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 4 Houston Texans:
The Chargers opened as juiced 2.5-point road favorites before reaching the key number of -3. As of this publication, the line hasn’t seen any significant movement. These teams didn’t square off in the regular season, but it’s evident that the Texans are the weakest division champ.
They enter the postseason with a point differential of zero. For reference, every other AFC playoff team, including Los Angeles, has a positive point differential. Houston is thin at wide receiver with Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs suffering season-ending knee injuries, leaving C.J. Stroud with one reliable threat in Nico Collins.
No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 3 Baltimore Ravens:
Considering the Steelers are on a four-game losing skid, bettors shouldn’t be surprised that the Ravens were bet up from -8.5 to as high as -10. After falling to Pittsburgh in their first meeting, Baltimore earned revenge, 34-17, as a touchdown favorite in Week 17.
Entering the postseason, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 2-4 all-time in the playoffs. However, Jackson is coming off a historic regular season, becoming the first player in NFL history to toss 30-plus scores with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 10.0 or higher in a single campaign. In fact, Jackson owns the top-rated adjusted EPA/dropback during the last month. His counterpart, Russell Wilson, ranked 31st.
No. 7 Denver Broncos at No. 2 Buffalo Bills:
Denver clinched a postseason berth with a 38-0 victory over the backup-led Kansas City Chiefs, but the market isn’t confident in Bo Nix and Co. moving forward. The Bills were immediately driven up from -7.5 to -9 home favorites.
While MVP favorite Josh Allen is known for manufacturing explosive plays, both through the air and on the ground, his ability to avoid damaging mistakes will be critical against the Broncos’ havoc-driven defense. Among qualified QBs, Allen boasts the lowest sack rate (2.6%), fourth-lowest interception rate (1.1%), and fifth-lowest fumble rate (0.8%).
No. 7 Green Bay Packers at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles:
Although the Packers fell to the Bears as 10-point favorites in Week 18, they’re breathing a sigh of relief. Based on this line, which opened at Eagles -3.5, Jordan Love’s elbow injury isn’t concerning. Wideout Christian Watson is expected to miss this matchup among NFL Wild Card odds, but Green Bay’s offense has dealt with his absence on plenty of occasions.
Conversely, Philly opted to rest Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley in the regular-season finale. This game would mark the first time Hurts takes a snap since suffering a concussion against Washington in Week 16. Before the Eagles’ meaningless victory over the Giants, they ranked first in EPA per designed carry and EPA allowed per designed carry.
When these teams played in their season opener, Barkley and Philadelphia’s rushing attack lacerated the Packers’ defense — en route to a 34-29 win as a 1.5-point favorite in Brazil.
No. 6 Washington Commanders at No. 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Like the Packers and Eagles, these teams also met on opening weekend, with the spread in the -4 range. Todd Bowles worked his magic against Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, the odds-on favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, in a 37-20 win.
The Commanders’ offense has evolved ever since under offensive guru Kliff Kingsbury, accruing a top-10 passing and rushing DVOA. Much of that is due to Daniels’ dual-threat prowess.
Nevertheless, Daniels departed the regular-season finale against the Cowboys with leg discomfort. He’s taken his fair share of hits lately, sacked four times by Dallas, five times by Atlanta last week, and eight times by New Orleans in Week 15.
Baker Mayfield’s unit attracted some interest after opening as -3 (+100) favorites. As of Monday afternoon, the line is nearing -3.5, almost identical to what we saw in September.
No. 5 Minnesota Vikings at No. 4 Los Angeles Rams:
Following a blowout loss in Detroit on Sunday night, oddsmakers quickly adjusted Minnesota from -2.5 to -1.5 road favorites, signifying early money on Los Angeles. Remember that the Vikings were 2.5-point favorites at SoFi Stadium in Week 8, only to fall to a rejuvenated Rams team with star wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back on the field.
Kevin O’Connell’s bunch was on a short prep week, coming off another heartbreaking defeat versus the NFC North champs. It was Minnesota’s lone loss in a game decided by one score. The Vikings won all nine other matchups.
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