The New York Giants (9-7-1) visit the Minnesota Vikings (13-4) in the NFC Wild Card round. The game kicks Sunday afternoon at 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX from US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn. Giants at Vikings odds pin the Vikings as a home favorites and the Giants are on the moneyline. The over/under currently sits at points.
In this article we break down everything you need to know before betting the Giants at Vikings odds, props, and injuries. We’ll also look at team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.
Giants At Vikings Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under
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Giants At Vikings Player Props
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Giants At Vikings Betting News & Angles
Vikings Vs. Giants Weather
Weather will not be a factor, given U.S. Bank Stadium has a roof; however, if you’re going to the game, we hear walking to the stadium is cold this time of year in Minnesota.
Vikings Vs. Giants Injury Report
|Player||Pos.||Injury||Status||Avg. Snap Count|
New York Injuries
No players were listed on the injury report this week.
Vikings Offense Vs. Giants Defense
|Vikings Offense||Stats (Rank)||Giants Defense|
|24.9 (8)||Points/Gm||21.8 (17)|
|0.4 (2)||Points/Play||0.3 (1)|
|361.5 (7)||Yards/Gm||358.2 (25)|
|263.8 (6)||Pass Yards/Gm||214.0 (14)|
|97.7 (27)||Rush Yards/Gm||144.2 (27)|
|5.5 (11)||Yards/Play||5.6 (24)|
|6.7 (10)||Yards/Pass||6.4 (11)|
|4.1 (26)||Yards/Rush||5.2 (30)|
|41.2% (12)||3rd Down %||35.1% (5)|
|62.5% (8)||Red Zone %||49.2% (5)|
|23 (17)||Turnovers||19 (25)|
|47 (25)||Sacks||41 (13)|
Giants Offense Vs. Vikings Defense
|Giants Offense||Stats (Rank)||Vikings Defense|
|21.5 (15)||Points/Gm||25.1 (28)|
|0.3 (17)||Points/Play||0.4 (19)|
|333.9 (18)||Yards/Gm||388.7 (31)|
|185.7 (26)||Pass Yards/Gm||265.6 (31)|
|148.2 (4)||Rush Yards/Gm||123.1 (20)|
|5.2 (22)||Yards/Play||5.9 (29)|
|6.1 (24)||Yards/Pass||7.3 (30)|
|4.9 (4)||Yards/Rush||4.5 (19)|
|36.8% (22)||3rd Down %||38.1% (11)|
|63.3% (7)||Red Zone %||57.1% (21)|
|16 (2)||Turnovers||25 (8)|
|49 (27)||Sacks||38 (21)|
Giants At Vikings Betting Insights
Why The Vikings Can Cover The Spread
It’s not often you see a 13-win home team favored by so few points over a nine-win team in the playoffs. Removed for the standard 2.5-point home field advantage, oddsmakers see just a half-point difference between these two teams. Further, the numbers even lean Giants -2.5, with even money being offered on Vikings -3 in some spots.
When the Vikings’ offense clicks, it’s a tough unit to stop. Justin Jefferson came just short of the all-time receiving record, having hauled in 12 passes for 133 yards in the Vikings’ Week 16 matchup with the Giants. In that game, TJ Hockenson added 13-109-2 himself.
In the same game, Minnesota rushed for a paltry 83 yards. The Vikings are 25th in adjusted line yards this season– something we’ll talk more about later.
Just on the premise of a good offense at home in the playoffs, taking a flier on Vikings -3 (+100) might be a decent play. However, I can’t recommend laying the points with Minnesota.
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Why The Giants Can Cover The Spread
Let’s revisit some numbers on the Vikings offensive line. It’s one of the worst units in the league, allowing the ninth-highest pressure rate on top of that 25th ranking in adjusted line yards and rushing success rate. Football Outsiders designates the Vikings’ run game as the fifth-worst in the league (DVOA). Even against the Giants’ defense– which ranks no higher than 28th in defensive EPA, DVOA, yards per rush, or PFF’s defense grades– the Vikings ground game was painfully inefficient.
It was that inefficiency that nearly cost the Vikings the game the first time around. It took a 61-yard field goal as time expired to beat the Giants on Christmas Eve.
The Giants had a 57.5% win expectancy late in the fourth quarter, per ESPN, until the Giants had a punt blocked on their own 29. It’s not an outcome I’d bet on to happen again if I’m looking at the Vikings.
New York out-gained Minnesota 6.7-5.0 in yards per play in Week 16. It’s a crude but decent indicator of postgame win expectancy. Not only can the Giants cover +3, but I firmly believe they can win this game outright.
Reasons To Bet The Over
We’re dealing with a pair of bad defenses Sunday. The Vikings are 27th in defense DVOA while the Giants are 29th, although the Giants’ ability to apply the brakes in the red zone prevents their defense from being a total disaster. This season, they’ve allowed touchdowns on fewer than 50% of opposing red zone possessions, fifth-best in the NFL.
But outside of red zone conversion rate for the Giants, these defenses give up yards and points. The Vikings pass the third-most in the NFL (64% of snaps) and run the sixth-fastest offense (seconds per play, per Football Outsiders). Last time against the Giants, this offense fell apart on the ground, but still succeeded through the air.
Anything under 50 points is an enticing bet, especially since despite a stagnant performance last time from both offenses resulted in 51 combined points.
Reasons To Bet The Under
Perhaps last time wasn’t uncharacteristic and these offenses just can’t match up and move the ball against these bad defenses. For every 33-point outing against the Bills, the Vikings have a three- and seven-point performance against the Cowboys and Eagles, respectively. The NFC East as a whole perplexed Minnesota’s offense, with the Vikings putting up just 20 on Washington, too.
The Giants run a methodical offense, not really speeding things up when trailing. A reasonable expectation in this game is to see the Vikings go up by a score, where the Giants still run the league-average pace.
Giants At Vikings Props: Matchups To Watch For
Giants’ Next Man Up Vs. Minnesota Secondary: Few teams lack the receiving prowess the Giants do, but Daniel Jones has done a good job spreading the ball around to everyone. In the last four games the Giants played their starters (Weeks 14-17), Richie James led in receptions. However, Saquon Barkley leads the team in targets (76) while Darius Slayton comes in second (71).
The Vikings give up the most yards to opposing receivers this season despite a below league-average strength of schedule defensively. James and Slayton, along with Isaiah Hodgins, all logged 75 yards last outing against the Vikings. Tread carefully guessing which receiver leads the team, but looking at multiple overs for receiving yards may yield multiple winners.
TJ Hockenson Vs. Priors: Beware looking at Week 16, seeing 109 yards and a pair of touchdowns and auto-clicking over on Hockenson’s 47.5 yards. However, do note his utilization last time around– Minnesota went to him early, often, and in a myriad of ways. His first touchdown was thanks to the play design, which isolated Hockenson on an inside linebacker. They also lined him out wide and used him in the screen game.
A learning moment for the Giants? Perhaps, but the Vikings will almost certainly repeat their usage of him this week. The increased focus on Hockenson and the Giants’ need to bring safeties onto him late opened up the door for Justin Jefferson to explode for 133 yards.
The Vikings’ 2022 season and their potential to be fraudulent is well-documented. We all know they have the lowest scoring margin of a 12+ win team in NFL history and an exponentially-lower scoring margin than the other 12+ win teams this season.
It’s tough to hand-waive a 13-win season as “luck,” but not many teams had fairer bounces in the league than Minnesota. They were either matched or out-gained on a per-play basis in seven of their wins this year. We also know they won 11 of their games by single digits and required a 33-point halftime comeback and a fumble on a QB sneak to win a pair of those games.
Luck runs out. I’m betting on it to run out in the high-leverage playoffs, where all of the eyes are on Kirk Cousins. I’m betting the Giants to win outright ().
Best of luck betting the Giants at Vikings odds in this game.