NFL Wild Card Betting Preview: Miami Dolphins At Buffalo Bills Odds

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on January 13, 2023 - Last Updated on January 15, 2023
bills vs. dolphins odds

The Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jan. 15. Primary markets for the game show the Bills as spread favorites and on the moneyline. Bills vs. Dolphins odds feature a total set at .

With Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa out (concussion), Buffalo is the biggest spread favorite in Wild Card history. In this article, we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, weather and the best available NFL Wild Card odds. Click on the odds anywhere in this post to bet now.

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the Bills vs. Dolphins odds table, click the dropdown menu and select the type of bet you wish to make. 

Betting the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A plus sign in front of the spread denotes the underdog, and a minus sign denotes the favorite.

In this case, the Bills would have to win by at least 14 points if you bet them to cover the point spread (-13) — a 13-point win would return your money. A spread bet on the Dolphins would win if they win the game or lose by fewer than 13 — again, a 13-point loss returns your money.

Betting the moneyline is simply betting on which particular team will win a game.

The betting total is the number of combined points the two teams will score. Bettors can choose to bet the over or under on how many total points will be scored in the game. 

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Dolphins At Bills Player Props

In the props tool search bar, type in a player. This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. You can also head over to our NFL playoff props post for Dolphins at Bills to find more specific angles from our staff for this game.

Dolphins At Bills Betting News & Angles

Use this rolling, updating list of news bites about each team to help your handicapping for Bills vs. Dolphins odds.

Bills Vs. Dolphins Weather

This game will be played outdoors at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The forecast as of Wednesday calls for 34-degree temperatures, sunny skies, and lights winds of 5 to 10 mph.

Bills Vs. Dolphins Injury Report

Buffalo Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Isaiah McKenzieWRHamstringQuestionable38.9
Jordan PhillipsDTShoulderQuestionable29.1
Jamison CrowderWRAnkleQuestionable27.8

Miami Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Brandon ShellOTKneeQuestionable61.8
Jaelan PhillipsLBWristQuestionable53.8
Terron ArmsteadOTToeQuestionable52.9
Bradley ChubbOLBAnkleQuestionable51.2
Jaylen WaddleWRAnkleQuestionable46.4
Raheem MostertRBThumbQuestionable39.2
Jeff Wilson Jr.RBIllnessProbable33.7
Alec IngoldFBThumbQuestionable32.5
Kendall LammOTAnkleQuestionable32.0
Teddy BridgewaterQBKneeQuestionable28.2
Cedrick WilsonWRHipProbable18.5
Adam ShaheenTEKneeOut

Dolphins Offense Vs. Bills Defense

Dolphins OffenseStats (Rank)Bills Defense
23.4 (11)Points/Gm17.2 (2)
0.393 (8)Points/Play0.287 (2)
364.5 (6)Yards/Gm319.1 (6)
265.4 (4)Pass Yards/Gm214.6 (15)
99.2 (25)Rush Yards/Gm104.6 (5)
6.1 (2)Yards/Play5.1 (9)
7.7 (2)Yards/Pass6 (5)
4.3 (19)Yards/Rush4.3 (14)
36.22% (24)3rd Down %37.5% (7)
60% (10)Red Zone %44.9% (2)
1.2 (8)Turnovers/Game1.7 (4)
5.65% (10)Sack Rate6.56% (18)

Bills Offense Vs. Dolphins Defense

Bills OffenseStats (Rank)Dolphins Defense
28.4 (2)Points/Gm23.5 (24)
0.439 (2)Points/Play0.367 (23)
397.6 (2)Yards/Gm337.8 (18)
258.1 (7)Pass Yards/Gm234.8 (27)
139.5 (7)Rush Yards/Gm103 (4)
6.1 (3)Yards/Play5.3 (14)
7.2 (7)Yards/Pass6.4 (12)
5.2 (2)Yards/Rush4.1 (6)
50.26% (1)3rd Down %41.63% (24)
60.34% (9)Red Zone %59.32% (23)
1.7 (31)Turnovers/Game0.8 (30)
5.44% (8)Sack Rate6.02% (22)

Dolphins At Bills Advanced Stats

Miami DolphinsStats (Rank)Buffalo Bills
+12% (7)Offense DVOA+19% (2)
+0.8% (15)Defense DVOA-11% (4)
-3.1% (28)Special Teams DVOA+5% (3)
-0.050 (13)Rush Offense EPA/Play-0.064 (16)
-0.108 (7)Rush Defense EPA/Play-0.121 (5)
+0.111 (8)Pass Offense EPA/Play+0.203 (2)
+0.088 (26)Pass Defense EPA/Play-0.005 (11)
DVOA via Football Outsiders, EPA/play via RBSDM database

Dolphins At Bills Betting Insights

Why The Dolphins Can Cover The Spread

If Teddy Bridgewater starts and is getting 13 points, this looks like a spot where the market yet again gets slanted too far against him. His legendary against-the-spread record speaks for itself, and the Dolphins have played the Bills tough twice this year, coming out with a narrow victory once and a close loss on a last-second field goal. Miami still has elite weapons, and the Bills’ weak point on defense is their cornerback play.

Why The Bills Can Cover The Spread

But, if Skylar Thompson starts, the Bills might be able to name the score here. This team simply has too much firepower to fail to score 20+ points, and there’s no indication that Thompson can do anything of the sort. Even if Bridgewater starts, we’ve seen a markedly worse level of play from him this season. For whatever reason, he has struggled in a small sample with INT% (5.1) and completion rate (62) both coming in far worse than his career marks.

Reasons To Bet The Over

As these two teams showed back in December, a number in the low to mid 40s simply doesn’t capture what these two explosive offenses can accomplish. Even with some snow falling, that game saw more than 60 points scored. The 40-point September meeting was marked by long Bills drives that failed to produce points as they had a fumble, a fourth-down failure and a missed kick.

Reasons To Bet The Under

What if Thompson starts and Miami’s offense never gets out of first gear? Among 47 quarterbacks with at least 120 plays, Thompson ranks dead last in both EPA/play and Success Rate. Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy, Joe Flacco and Zach Wilson are among the luminaries outperforming him. He just isn’t ready to play at this level, and even if the Bills score 30 points here, there remains a distinct possibility this game goes under.

Dolphins At Bills Matchups To Watch For

Dolphins Pass Rush Vs. Bills OL

If the Bills have a weak point on offense, it’s up front. The pass protection garnered poor reviews from PFF, although they rate highly in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate. It’s probably fair to call them middling. The Dolphins have struggled against opposing passing games, but they do have a couple of strong EDGEs in Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Regardless of what happens on offense, winning this matchup handily is probably their only chance of limiting the Bills.

Josh Allen Vs. Red Zone Miscues

The preseason MVP favorite, a large part of what ultimately sank Josh Allen’s candidacy was probably his poor performance in the red zone. Simply put, he produced far too many negative plays. His 5 INTs there outpaced the rest of the NFL by at least two, and he added a lost fumble and four sacks (tied for ninth-worst). Those sorts of miscues are exactly what can drag down a superior team and lead to an upset.

Bills CBs Vs. Dolphins WRs

Again, the weak point of this Bills defense is their CB play. Even former star performer Tre’Davious White has been victimized plenty as he understandably struggles to regain his old form following a season-ending injury last year. Miami has just the ticket to exploit that in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but will they receive enough QB help for it to matter? The team probably needs Waddle in particular to have a big game as Hill may be slowed by a bum ankle he hurt against the Jets.

Final Thoughts

It can feel reductive to say a game simply comes down to QB play when handicapping NFL playoff odds, but that may be what we’re looking at here when examining this Wild Card matchup. One struggles to see a way the Dolphins can stay competitive in this game with Skylar Thompson at QB. Being 47th of 47 qualified QBs in Success Rate and EPA/play says a lot, and the tape backs that up. And if Bridgewater is able to go, he must show a higher level of play than he’s put forth so far this season. Bridgewater has years of solid play in his career, so there’s no obvious reason he can’t put points on the board in this elite ecosystem.

The Bills are just too strong on offense to be held down here, short of a complete blow-up game by Josh Allen in terms of turnovers. They will almost certainly get theirs, and look for them to win in blowout fashion if Bridgewater can’t suit up.

Best of luck betting on Bills vs. Dolphins odds.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

View all posts by Mo Nuwwarah