The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) host the Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) in the AFC Wild Card round. The game kicks Saturday night at 8:15 p.m. on ESPN from TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. Chargers at Jaguars odds pin the Chargers as a road favorites and the Jaguars are on the moneyline. The over/under currently sits at points.
In this article we break down everything you need to know before betting the Chargers at Jaguars odds, props, and injuries. We’ll also look at team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.
Chargers At Jaguars Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under
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Chargers At Jaguars Player Props
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Chargers At Jaguars Betting News & Angles
Chargers Vs. Jaguars Weather
The weather forecast for Jacksonville on Saturday is dry (clear sky) and calm (7 mph winds), with a high temperature of 46 degrees Fahrenheit (as of 10:19 PM on January 12).
Chargers Vs. Jaguars Injury Report
Los Angeles Injuries
|Player||Pos.||Injury||Status||Avg. Snap Count|
|Player||Pos.||Injury||Status||Avg. Snap Count|
Chargers Offense Vs. Jaguars Defense
|Chargers Offense||Stats (Rank)||Jaguars Defense|
|23.0 (13)||Points/Gm||20.6 (12)|
|0.3 (17)||Points/Play||0.3 (1)|
|359.3 (9)||Yards/Gm||353.3 (24)|
|269.6 (3)||Pass Yards/Gm||238.5 (28)|
|89.6 (30)||Rush Yards/Gm||114.8 (12)|
|5.3 (17)||Yards/Play||5.4 (15)|
|6.4 (18)||Yards/Pass||6.7 (19)|
|3.8 (29)||Yards/Rush||4.2 (6)|
|43.6% (8)||3rd Down %||43.2% (29)|
|54.1% (17)||Red Zone %||59.6% (24)|
|19 (5)||Turnovers||27 (4)|
|39 (17)||Sacks||35 (25)|
Jaguars Offense Vs. Chargers Defense
|Jaguars Offense||Stats (Rank)||Chargers Defense|
|23.8 (10)||Points/Gm||22.6 (21)|
|0.4 (2)||Points/Play||0.4 (19)|
|357.4 (10)||Yards/Gm||346.1 (20)|
|232.9 (10)||Pass Yards/Gm||200.3 (7)|
|124.5 (14)||Rush Yards/Gm||145.8 (28)|
|5.7 (7)||Yards/Play||5.9 (29)|
|6.6 (13)||Yards/Pass||6.7 (19)|
|4.7 (8)||Yards/Rush||5.4 (32)|
|41.9% (9)||3rd Down %||39.2% (17)|
|53.4% (20)||Red Zone %||53.2% (12)|
|22 (14)||Turnovers||24 (11)|
|28 (5)||Sacks||40 (14)|
Chargers At Jaguars Betting Insights
Why The Jaguars Can Cover The Spread
If you’re looking for battle-tested teams with momentum heading into the playoffs, the Jaguars are it. They’ve been playing in playoff conditions since December began, winning their final five games. That stretch included two wins over the Titans, one for the AFC South title, and they won their final four home games dating back to the start of November.
Both teams have among the worst strengths of schedule in the NFL, particularly for the Jags defense and Bolts offense. A short home dog in a city as excited to host a playoff game as Jacksonville makes them a dangerous team in the opening round.
Their passing game exploded on the scene, especially late in the season, under Trevor Lawrence. The Jags are passing with the fourth-highest success rate and rank sixth in EPA per pass on the season. The four teams that sit ahead of Jacksonville in passing success rate: Kansas City, Buffalo, and Cincinnati.
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Why The Chargers Can Cover The Spread
A quick list of players the Chargers were without in Week 3 against Jacksonville: Keenan Allen, JC Jackson, Rashawn Slater, Corey Linsley, Joey Bosa. Slater was designated to return from the IR this week but won’t suit up Saturday. Bosa and linebacker Kenneth Murray were banged up in Week 18 (oops) but are believed to play. Mike Williams is trending in the wrong direction after back-to-back DNPs Wednesday and Thursday.
Either way, there’s a ton of pieces back for the Bolts. When at full strength and playing in high-stakes games like against the Chiefs and 49ers this season, the Chargers are a very capable and dangerous team. But they always seem to come up short, going 1-4 against teams in the playoff field and that one win came over the sliding Dolphins.
The bottom line here: based on my evaluation of the team, I can’t find much of an argument to recommend a Chargers ticket.
Reasons To Bet The Over
We’re dealing with a pair of extremely capable QBs with talented receiving corps and subpar defenses. The Chargers blitz the sixth-most in the NFL, but generate pressure on fewer than 20% of dropbacks, the 10th-lowest rate in the league. However, the Jaguars have done a great job keeping Lawrence upright, both through decent offensive line play and scheme (third-lowest adjusted sack rate).
Going the other way, the Jaguars have been beaten by the pass, most recently making Josh Dobbs look like Justin Herbert himself. Even without Slater in the lineup for much of the season, Herbert’s avoided taking too many sacks, thanks in part to his escapability and pocket presence.
This game could easily turn into a shootout, with both Lawrence and Herbert ripping the ball. Under 50 points is a favorable number given the Chargers pace of play (fifth-highest seconds per play, per Football Outsiders).
Reasons To Bet The Under
If you’re betting the under, take the Chargers going away, as well. The Bolts play way too fast on a neutral game script and are good enough converting third downs to want to sweat a close game under. The Bolts slow the ball way down with a lead (21st in seconds per play with 7+ point lead), but the Jaguars pick up the pace to well above league average down seven points or more.
Really that’s the only way I’d lean under the point total here.
Chargers At Jaguars Props: Matchups To Watch For
Travis Etienne Vs. Chargers Run Defense: It was a strong finish to the season for Etienne, who racked up at least 100 yards in two of his last four games and at least 80 yards in Weeks 15-17. His run might continue against the Chargers, who allow the most yards per rush (5.4) and rank 29th in rushing success rate allowed.
Jacksonville rushed right at league average (41.8% of plays), but that number increased by nearly 5% in their last three outings. Things clicked in the Jags offense for Etienne in Week 5– after they played the Chargers back in Week 3– when his carries per game increased from 8.5 to 15.3. The game is expected to be close (Jaguars ), so it’s reasonable to expect a strong workload for Etienne.
Austin Ekeler Vs. Jaguars Defense: No defense in the NFL allows more targets to the running back position than Jacksonville. They’re one of four teams to allow 100+ receptions and they don’t play in a division with target-heavy running backs. (Note: the other three teams– Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Arizona– all play in divisions with target-heavy running backs.)
Last time against the Jaguars, Ekeler hauled in eight passes, many of which came out of necessity. He’s been targeted 10 or more times in five games this year, but all of those came prior to Week 13; in each of his last four games, Ekeler was targeted fewer than five times.
Mike Williams’ status in the game, even if he plays, will be critical to Ekeler’s target volume.
It may come as a surprise to many that Trevor Lawrence has a higher average passer rating and the Jaguars have a higher EPA per pass than Justin Herbert and the Chargers do. It’s not a catch-all, but it has led Jacksonville to also out-score LA on the season, 23.8-23.0. Both Lawrence and Herbert are first-time playoff quarterbacks– which are 14-35-1 against the spread according to Yahoo– so variance in this game could be high.
The difference? Coaching experience. Doug Pederson made the playoffs in three straight seasons with Philadelphia, where he won four games and a Super Bowl. Brandon Staley was the Rams defensive coordinator in 2020, where they won a playoff game, but also surrendered 52 points in those two games.
Slater is confirmed to be out, Williams looks doubtful, while Bosa is on track to play but not confirmed. Both teams have solid momentum going into this game, but the Jaguars’ difficulty to get here is much higher than the Chargers, who beat up on the Cardinals, beat-up Titans, Colts, and Rams.
Best of luck betting the Chargers at Jaguars odds in this game.