The Recency Report: NFL Week 8 Market Moves And Week 9 Look-Ahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on October 25, 2019

Every week, TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. These advance lines are posted every Thursday, a full week before the ensuing week’s games on the schedule.

In this article, we also take a look at the current lines compared to the opening lines at FanDuel from the previous week. Here’s a look at some of the storylines and betting situations that have impacted (or could impact) the Week 8 NFL card:

  • The injury to Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes caused the biggest shakeup in the Week 8 lines with Green Bay (6-1) a 4.5-point road favorite at Kansas City (5-2). The Chiefs were -4 on the look-ahead line last week prior to Mahomes’ knee injury last Thursday night at Denver. The Chiefs – Packers game is generating the largest handle of the week and bettors are piling on the Packers with more than 88% of the spread bets on Green Bay at DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • After each team won 12 games last season, the Chargers (2-5) and Bears (3-3) are struggling and both enter off a loss as they meet at Soldier Field in Chicago this week. The Bears are a 3.5-point home favorite and the look-ahead line was Chicago -5. The Bears rushed for 17 yards and a franchise seven attempts last week in an ugly 36-25 home loss to the Saints last week while the Chargers were stuffed at the goal line and fumbled away a win at Tennessee 23-20 but did go pass-heavy on offense to gain 365 yards against the Titans. Bettors are jumping off the Bears with Chicago generating near 42% of the spread bets this week at DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • How much longer will Falcons head coach Dan Quinn or Bengals first-year head coach Zac Taylor keep their jobs? The Falcons are allowing 32 points per game, only better than the Dolphins this season, and Atlanta lost its fifth straight game last week in a 37-10 blowout loss at home to the Rams. The adjustment in price has been made with bettors steaming up Seattle to a 7-point road favorite at Atlanta with the added news that Falcons QB Matt Ryan (ankle) is not practicing and remains questionable for Sunday’s game.

The Week 8 betting guide highlights the games with plenty of betting analysis for you to consume. Below we take a look at the market movement on this week’s games along with the reasons why the lines have shifted to help you with your handicapping.

How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to the previous week’s scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

Week 8 market movement

See the opening introduction for some of the major market moves this week. But note the quarterback injury situation continues to be a storyline this season. With Patrick Mahomes going down last week and out at least a few weeks with a kneecap injury, Matt Moore becomes the 13th backup quarterback to start this season. In fact, if Falcons QB Matt Ryan (ankle) is unable to make post this Sunday, then Matt Schaub will be backup quarterback No. 14 to start this season.

Those two quarterback changes in Kansas City and potentially Atlanta have resulted in the biggest market moves in Week 8 with the Chiefs going from a 4-point favorite on the look ahead line to a 4.5-point home underdog to Green Bay. Seattle was a 3-point favorite last week and FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the Seahawks up to a 7-point road favorite while some other sportsbooks have taken the line down and not yet re-posted as of Thursday waiting for the status of Ryan to be more clear.

The Saints are up to a 10.5-point favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook as they shoot for their sixth straight win and cover with QB Teddy Bridgwater under center against the Cardinals (3-3), who have won three straight games against the Bengals (0-7), Falcons (1-6) and Giants (2-5) while scoring at least 26 points in all three games. Defensive problems still persist for the Cardinals, who have allowed at least 21 points in every game and 27 points per game and 393 yards per game this season; both bottom five in the league. The look ahead line was New Orleans -7.5.

The Bills (5-1) have the second-best record in the AFC but are still looking up in the standings at the powerful Patriots (7-0), who Buffalo lost to in Week 4. Still, the Bills have allowed just 91 points, also second-best in the AFC behind the Patriots, but are priced below a field goal at home this week to visiting Philadelphia (3-4). The Eagles play their third straight road game after losing physical games by at least two touchdowns to both Minnesota and Dallas. Philadelphia’s defense and injuries along the offensive line, secondary, and continued absence of WR DeSean Jackson is causing concern with the Eagles, allowing 186 points or 26.6 points per game this season. The Bills are a 2.5-point favorite as of Friday morning after opening -1.5, and the look-ahead line was Buffalo -1.

GameOpenCurrent
Washington at MinnesotaMIN -14MIN -16.5
NY Giants at DetroitDET -7.5DET -7
Tampa Bay at TennesseeTEN -1.5TEN -2.5
LA Chargers at ChicagoCHI -5CHI -3.5
Seattle at AtlantaSEA -3SEA -5.5
NY Jets at JacksonvilleNLJAX -6
Philadelphia at BuffaloBUF -1BUF -2.5
Cincinnati at LA Rams (London)LAR -9LAR -13
Arizona at New OrleansNO -7.5NO -10.5
Oakland at HoustonHOU -7HOU -6.5
Carolina at San FranciscoSF -4.5SF -5.5
Denver at IndianapolisIND -6IND -5.5
Cleveland at New EnglandNE -10NE-13
Green Bay at Kansas CityKC -4GB -3.5
Miami at PittsburghPIT -15.5PIT -14.5

NFL Week 9 look-ahead lines

Week 9 includes more division games with road favorites San Francisco at Arizona, and NY Jets at Miami along with a rematch Dallas at NY Giants. All three of the road teams are projected to lay at least a touchdown. The Jaguars and Texans have a division duel in London to complete the overseas schedule. The most anticipated matchups include two more road favorites with Minnesota at Kansas City and New England at Baltimore. A total of eight games are projected to have road favorites in Week 9.

GameFanDuel Spread
49ers at CardinalsSF -6.5
Texans vs Jaguars (London)HOU -3
Redskins at BillsBUF -10
Titans at PanthersCAR -4.5
Bears at EaglesPHI -3.5
Vikings at ChiefsMIN -3.5
Jets at DolphinsNYJ -6.5
Colts at SteelersIND -1.5
Lions at RaidersDET -1
Buccaneers at SeahawksSEA -5.5
Browns at BroncosDEN -1
Packers at ChargersGB -3.5
Patriots at RavensNE -4.5
Cowboys at GiantsDAL -7.5

In May, Las Vegas sportsbook CG Technology released NFL lines on every 2019 regular-season game. The biggest projected line in Week 9: Tampa Bay at Seattle (-7.5). There were three games projected at Pick ’em: Houston vs. Jacksonville, Minnesota at Kansas City, and the NY Jets at Miami.

We now see the Vikings a 3.5-point road favorite on the look-ahead line at FanDuel Sportsbook with Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes sidelined. The Texans are projected as a 3-point favorite in London while the one-win Jets are a 6.5-point road favorite on the look-ahead line at winless Miami.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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