NFL Week 9 Betting Preview: Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders

Written By FairwayJay on November 4, 2022
vikings commanders odds

The Minnesota Vikings visit the Washington Commodores at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 6. Primary markets for the NFC match-up show the Vikings spread favorites and on the moneyline with the takeback on the Commanders . Vikings Commanders odds feature a total set at . FOX carries the TV coverage.

In this article, we’ll dig into everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, weather and the best available NFL Week 9 odds. Click on the odds anywhere in this post to bet now.

Vikings Commanders Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the Vikings Commanders odds table, click the dropdown menu and select the type of bet you wish to make –  spreads, totals, and moneylines.

Betting the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A plus sign in front of the spread denotes the underdog, and a minus sign denotes the favorite. 

In this case, the Vikings would have to win by at least 4 points if you bet them to cover the point spread (-3). A Vikings win by 3-points would be a push and bets refunded. Conversely, a spread bet on the Commanders would need Washington to either win outright, or lose by 1-2 points (depending on the spread you bet), or tie in overtime.

Betting the moneyline is simply betting on which particular team will win a game.

Wagering on the game total, or over/under, is simply a bet on how many total points the two teams will combine to score in a game.

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Vikings vs Commanders Player Props

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets from the Vikings Commanders odds catalog offered by leading online sportsbooks.

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. Unlike bigger markets like moneylines and spreads that often reach a consensus number, shopping for prop bet lines can often reveal sizable differences in the numbers.

Vikings vs Commanders Betting News & Angles

Use this rolling, updating list of news bites about each team to help your handicapping for Vikings Commanders odds.

The Vikings (6-1) have the biggest division lead in the NFL at 3.5 games over the Packers (3-5) and Bears (3-5). Minnesota has won 5-straight games and scored at least 24 points in each of those wins. The Vikings odds to win the NFC North are now -1,000 at BetMGM. The Packers opened the season at -300 odds to win the division.

The Commanders (4-4) have won three straight games, but are still in last place in the NFC East. The Eagles (8-0) are still undefeated after their 29-17 Thursday Night Football win to kickoff Week 9.

Vikings vs Commanders Weather Report

As of Friday morning, the weather at FedEx Field in D.C. during the Vikings-Commanders games is expected to be overcast and mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 70s and winds less than 10 MPG.  

Vikings Vs. Washington Injury Report

Minnesota Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Cameron DantzlerCBNeckQuestionable63.6
Za’Darius SmithOLBKneeQuestionable48.1
Irvin Smith Jr.TEAnkleOut36.3
Jalen NailorWRIllnessQuestionable10.8

Washington Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Cole HolcombLBFootQuestionable63.7
Jahan DotsonWRHamstringQuestionable63.0
Logan ThomasTECalfQuestionable48.2
Cole TurnerTEConcussionProbable39.3
David MayoLBHamstringQuestionable28.1
J.D. McKissicRBNeckQuestionable27.9
Shaka ToneyDECalfQuestionable25.8
Chase YoungDEAclQuestionable

Vikings Offense Vs. Washington Defense

Vikings OffenseStats (Rank)Commanders Defense
24.7 (9)Points/Gm21.5 (15)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.4 (17)
345.7 (15)Yards/Gm334.5 (13)
237.1 (11)Pass Yards/Gm214.0 (16)
108.6 (21)Rush Yards/Gm120.5 (18)
5.4 (15)Yards/Play5.6 (16)
6.2 (24)Yards/Pass6.9 (19)
4.6 (15)Yards/Rush4.6 (19)
39.8% (17)3rd Down %31.0% (3)
66.7% (5)Red Zone %50.0% (8)
7 (3)Turnovers6 (30)
14 (8)Sacks21 (9)

Washington Offense Vs. Vikings Defense

Commanders OffenseStats (Rank)Vikings Defense
17.8 (27)Points/Gm20.6 (14)
0.3 (18)Points/Play0.3 (2)
331.0 (22)Yards/Gm383.1 (28)
226.6 (16)Pass Yards/Gm275.6 (29)
104.4 (24)Rush Yards/Gm107.6 (8)
5.0 (26)Yards/Play5.9 (26)
6.1 (26)Yards/Pass7.7 (30)
4.0 (25)Yards/Rush4.2 (7)
34.6% (25)3rd Down %34.9% (9)
52.4% (20)Red Zone %77.8% (32)
10 (15)Turnovers13 (6)
26 (29)Sacks21 (9)

Vikings at Commanders Betting Insights

Why The Vikings Can Cover The Spread

The Vikings have won five games in a row and beat Miami two games again when laying a similar price (-3) to a stronger Dolphins team and offense on the road with Teddy Bridgewater leading Miami’s offense. Minnesota is also improving and has more upside than Washington, who is last in the NFC in takeaways and was taking back a bigger number against the poor Packers two weeks ago. Washington backup QB Taylor Heinicke is 2-0 starting the last two games and makes fewer mistakes than Carson Wentz. But the Commanders still only average 5.0 yards per play on offense and are not likely to match Minnesota’s production and passing game threats with Washington’s defense ranking No. 28 in pass DVOA and No. 30 overall. 

Why The Commanders Can Cover The Spread

The Commanders have won three games in a row while playing four straight close contests decided by 4-points or less. None of those opponents scored more than 21 points against Washington despite the Commanders defensive deficiencies. All five of Minnesota’s recent wins have been by single digits, and only one was against a winning team. The Commanders have a shot if they can control the ball, clock and chains and create turnovers. Washington ranks No. 5 in the NFL in time of possession, and the Commanders will try to slow this game down and move the chains to keep it close again.   

Reasons To Bet The Over

The Vikings are the most talented and capable offense the Commanders have faced this season outside of the Eagles. Philadelphia had 400 yards offense at Washington including 328 passing, and the Eagles pulled the pedal off the gas after taking a 24-0 halftime lead. The Vikings project to 400 yards offense and more than 27 points with the passing game focused on attacking the Commanders No. 28 DVOA pass defense. If Washington plays from behind, their game script changes to more passing and an aggressive approach.

Reasons To Bet The Under

The Commanders have averaged 31 seconds per play over their last three contests to rank No. 5 in the league. The game plan and play calling has changed some with Heineke at quarterback and Washington will rely on their running game and Heinecke to extend plays and keep drives alive. If they can control the ball and pace, this game can go under the total again. In the Commanders last six games starting the Eagles, Washington has scored 8, 10, 17, 12, 23 and 17 points with last week’s miracle win and long late pass to the 1-yard line to set up the game-winning touchdown. That came against a soft coverage Colts defense and an 89 yard drive. Tthe Commanders were held to under 280 yards offense prior to the horseshoe winning score against the Colts. The VIkings are scoring just 20 points per game on the road, and the Commanders 19 PPG at home. 

Vikings at Commanders Props: Matchups to Watch for

Justin Jefferson vs Commanders secondary

Jefferson is averaging 107 receiving yards per game this season and has gone over the 87.5 receiving yards prop for this contest in his last four games. Surprisingly, the Vikings star receiver has not scored a touchdown since Week 1. Washington does not have a defensive back ranked in PFF’s top 50 coverage grades. 

  • Receiving yards: Over/Under / (
  • Longest receptions: O/U / ()

T.J. Hockenson vs Commanders linebackers and secondary

The Vikings acquired top TE T.J. Hockenson from the Lions at the Nov. 1 trade deadline. Hockenson steps into the starting role with Irv Smith’s injury. It’s uncertain how much usage he’ll get this week, but despite the Commanders poor pass defense DVOA ranking, Washington’s defense does rank No. 2 in the NFL holding TE’s to just 23 receptions for 226 yards, 1 TD and less than 3 receptions per game. 

  • Receiving yards: Over/Under / ()
  • Longest reception: O/U / ()

Terry McLaurin vs Vikings secondary

McLaurin has been QB Heinicke’s top target the last two games as starter. He’s targeted the Commanders top receiver 8 times each game and he’s had 113 and 73 receiving yards in those two games with 6 and 5 receptions plus a touchdown. McLaurin also caught 6 passes for 102 yards against the Eagles No. 2 DVOA pass defense when playing from behind and forced to pass more. The Vikings rank in the bottom third in pass defense DVOA and below both the Colts and Packers – the last two opponents of Washington. 

  • Receiving yards: Over/Under / ()

Final thoughts

The Vikings have more talent and playmakers on offense to keep attacking as needed, and the Commanders are the worst team and defense Minnesota has faced away from home this season. The Vikings are averaging three more first downs per game than last season and getting more comfortable with new coach Kevin O’Connell’s system and plays. An opportunistic defense has helped Minnesota have the second-best turnover margin in the league while Washington has the fewest takeaways in the NFC. 

Washington has faced just one quality quarterback in their last five games, yet the Commanders’ still rank No. 30 in pass defense DVOA and lack quality personnel on defense to contain the Vikings receivers and playmakers. Eagles receivers DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown had 169 and 85 receiving yards when the Eagles carved them up early in Week 3. Best of luck betting Vikings Commanders odds.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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