NFL Week 9 Betting Preview: Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears

Written By Derek Wagner on November 4, 2022
dolphins bears odds

The Miami Dolphins (5-3) visit the Chicago Bears (3-5) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 6. The Dolphins are spread favorites and on the moneyline. Dolphins Bears odds also feature a total set at .

In this article we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, weather, and the best available odds. Click on odds anywhere in this post to bet now.

DOLPHINS BEARS Odds: SPREAD, MONEYLINE, OVER/UNDER

When using the Dolphins Bears odds table above, click the dropdown menu and select the type of bet you wish to make. 

Betting on the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A “plus” sign in front of the spread is the underdog, and a “minus” sign is the favorite. The Dolphins need to win by six points or more if you bet on them against the spread, as they’re priced as a five point road favorite at most shops. Conversely, a spread bet on the Bears would need Chicago to win outright or lose by less than five.

The total is the number of combined points that the two teams will score. Bettors can bet “over” or “under” on how many total points will be scored in the game.

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DOLPHINS VS BEARS PLAYER PROPS

In the props tool search bar below, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. This tool is also valuable because it saves bettors time from toggling between different sportsbooks when shopping for best numbers and lines.

DOLPHINS VS. BEARS BETTING NEWS

As of Wednesday, the Dolphins Bears odds at DraftKings Sportsbook had Miami -5. 78% of the money is on Miami to cover the spread. Additional updates can be found below.

DOLPHINS VS BEARS WEATHER REPORT

As of Wednesday, the forecast in Chicago calls for 64 degrees and 13 mph winds at kickoff.

Dolphins Vs. Bears Injury Report

Miami Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Brandon ShellOTGroinQuestionable67.0
Jerome BakerLBHipQuestionable63.5
Christian WilkinsDTHandProbable62.3
Zach SielerDTHandProbable55.1
Terron ArmsteadOTToeQuestionable53.4
Jaylen WaddleWRShoulderProbable49.9
Emmanuel OgbahDEBackProbable47.1
Durham SmytheTEHamstringQuestionable43.0
Raekwon DavisDTKneeQuestionable42.1
Andrew Van GinkelLBChestQuestionable33.8
Tanner ConnerTEKneeQuestionable17.3
John JenkinsDTPersonalQuestionable17.1
River CracraftWRIllnessQuestionable12.7

Chicago Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Kyler GordonDBHipQuestionable67.1
Eddie JacksonDBHipQuestionable66.3

Dolphins Offense Vs. Bears Defense

Dolphins OffenseStats (Rank)Bears Defense
22.3 (16)Points/Gm22.6 (19)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.4 (17)
380.6 (7)Yards/Gm344.0 (16)
292.5 (3)Pass Yards/Gm188.0 (5)
88.1 (28)Rush Yards/Gm156.0 (31)
6.2 (3)Yards/Play5.7 (19)
8.0 (1)Yards/Pass6.8 (17)
3.9 (27)Yards/Rush5.0 (27)
40.4% (15)3rd Down %50.5% (31)
69.6% (4)Red Zone %68.0% (26)
10 (15)Turnovers13 (6)
17 (12)Sacks13 (28)

Bears Offense Vs. Dolphins Defense

Bears OffenseStats (Rank)Dolphins Defense
19.4 (23)Points/Gm24.0 (22)
0.3 (18)Points/Play0.4 (17)
315.4 (27)Yards/Gm362.8 (23)
126.9 (32)Pass Yards/Gm262.1 (26)
188.5 (1)Rush Yards/Gm100.6 (6)
5.3 (19)Yards/Play5.9 (26)
6.3 (19)Yards/Pass7.3 (28)
5.3 (2)Yards/Rush4.2 (7)
40.6% (13)3rd Down %41.8% (24)
52.0% (23)Red Zone %69.2% (28)
12 (22)Turnovers7 (27)
31 (32)Sacks15 (21)

DOLPHINS AT BEARS BETTING INSIGHTS

Why the Dolphins Can Cover The Spread

Although the Dolphins have generated a bottom five pressure rate through five games, help is on the way after the trade deadline. The Dolphins traded for star pass rush Bradley Chubb before the deadline on Tuesday. His top seven pressure rate in the NFL is a welcome addition to a defense struggling to get to the quarterback.

Additionally, Miami’s offense is fourth in dropback EPA over the last two weeks with Tua back. Not only is Matt Eberflus’ defense bottom 10 in pressures this year, but they also own the lowest blitz rate in the NFL at 14.2% of opponent dropbacks.

Why the Bears Can Cover The Spread

On the flip side, the 3-5 Bears have underwhelmed thus far in the passing game, averaging a league low 20 pass attempts per game through eight weeks.

With that being said, the Bears are a little undervalued in the betting market – especially given this matchup offensively. Three-time pro bowler Xavien Howard has been downright putrid in coverage this season. Through seven games, the veteran corner has allowed a 148.1 passer rating when targeted.

In fact, he has yielded the second most touchdowns of all cornerbacks this season, with five. Newcomer Chase Claypool could be the beneficiary of Howard’s poor coverage depending on how many snaps he gets come Sunday.

Despite getting bulldozed by Dallas for 6.9 yards per carry, the Bears defense could be due for positive regression in defending the run. Miami’s front grades out as a bottom 10 unit in run blocking (via PFF). If the Bears can stuff the run, they can force the Dolphins into third and long situations that are more difficult for the Miami to convert.

Luckily for Chicago, Miami has little interest in committing to running the football, as their rushing EPA ranks bottom 10 in the league.

Reasons To Bet The Over

The combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should provide plenty of explosive plays if the weather cooperates. The Bears were gashed for 8.6 yards per pass attempt by the Cowboys.

The loss of linebacker Roquan Smith can’t be overstated enough. Without the leading tackler in the NFL anchoring their defense, Miami’s offense, which is bottom 10 in yards per carry, could be due for some positive regression come Sunday.

Dating back to his time with the Colts, Matt Eberflus has emphasized alignment and assignment with his defense. With that being side, defensive assignments could get confusing for Chicago’s defense their first week without Roquan Smith.

Reasons To Bet The Under

Considering the total opened at 44.5, the betting market has already accounted for variables that would drive one to bet the over. But weather could play a part if the Windy City lives up to its name Sunday with high wind gusts currently in the forecast.

DOLPHINS VS BEARS PROPS: MATCHUPS TO WATCH

Dolphins receivers vs. Bears secondary

Waddle and Tyreek should feast against this Bears secondary. Although the Bears defense had a great game in Week 7 against the Patriots, the team regressed in Week 8 against a loaded Cowboys squad. The Cowboys offense had 8.6 yards per pass attempt against Chicago. The dynamic duo of Waddle and Hill are hoping to repeat or surpass that number.

Tyreek Hill should be able to feast against this Bears defense. Hill has lined up in the slot 136 times through eight games this year. Primary slot responsibility on the Bears defense falls to rookie cornerback Kyler Gordon and Gordon has had a particularly rough start to his NFL career. Through seven games, the rookie out of Washington has allowed the most receiving yards of any cornerback in the NFL with 496 yards. Barring high winds that prevent Tua from deep completions, he should be the subject of many targets on Sunday.

Although Gordon has done well in recent weeks by not allowing many explosive plays, I would expect some negative regression coming his way in this one.

Bradley Chubb vs. Bears offensive line

While Miami’s pass rush has been ineffective through eight weeks, they have a chance to change course this weekend against Chicago. Justin Fields has been sacked 31 times, the most in the NFL.

To make matters worse, Larry Borom is dealing with a concussion that caused him to miss last week’s game. Keep an eye on the injury report to see if Borom is cleared to play, as he has been Chicago highest graded pass blocker through eight games.

Final thoughts

Given the changes these teams have gone through during the massive trade deadline Tuesday, I’m staying away from this game. Good luck with betting Dolphins Bears odds if you choose to do so.

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