NFL Week 9 Betting Preview: Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons

Written By Derek Wagner on November 4, 2022
chargers falcons odds

The Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) visit the Atlanta Falcons (4-4) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 6. The Chargers are road favorites and on the moneyline. Chargers Falcons odds also feature a total is set at .

In this article we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, weather, and the best available odds. Click on Chargers – Falcons odds anywhere in this post to bet now.

CHARGERS AT FALCONS: SPREAD, MONEYLINE, OVER/UNDER

To place a bet, click on the Chargers Falcons odds in the table below. Toggle between spread, moneyline, or point total in the dropdown menu on the left-hand side.

CHARGERS AT FALCONS: PLAYER PROPS

Search for a player in our NFL Player Props Search tool below by typing their name into the search bar. You’ll see various proposition bets offered by numerous sportsbooks. This table is useful because it allows users to quickly search for the best numbers and odds on player props.

CHARGERS AT FALCONS: BETTING NEWS

As of Wednesday, the spread for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook is Chargers -3.583% Of the money is on Los Angeles to cover the spread. Additional updates can be found below.

Chargers Vs. Falcons Injury Report

Los Angeles Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Josh PalmerWRConcussionProbable58.0
Donald ParhamTEConcussionProbable30.5
Taylor BertoletKUndisclosedOut10.0
Stone SmarttTEUndisclosedQuestionable

Atlanta Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Elijah WilkinsonOTKneeQuestionable65.9
A.J. TerrellCBHamstringQuestionable53.0
Cordarrelle PattersonRBKneeQuestionable38.5

Chargers Offense Vs. Falcons Defense

Chargers OffenseStats (Rank)Falcons Defense
23.4 (11)Points/Gm25.6 (29)
0.3 (18)Points/Play0.4 (17)
368.3 (8)Yards/Gm415.8 (31)
279.4 (4)Pass Yards/Gm306.9 (32)
88.9 (27)Rush Yards/Gm108.9 (11)
5.3 (19)Yards/Play6.3 (31)
6.4 (15)Yards/Pass7.7 (30)
3.7 (28)Yards/Rush4.4 (14)
40.6% (13)3rd Down %47.1% (30)
53.6% (18)Red Zone %59.4% (22)
7 (3)Turnovers11 (10)
10 (1)Sacks12 (29)

Falcons Offense Vs. Chargers Defense

Falcons OffenseStats (Rank)Chargers Defense
25.0 (6)Points/Gm27.0 (31)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.4 (17)
320.8 (25)Yards/Gm357.6 (20)
162.6 (29)Pass Yards/Gm219.9 (18)
158.1 (5)Rush Yards/Gm137.7 (27)
5.5 (13)Yards/Play5.9 (26)
7.3 (6)Yards/Pass6.5 (11)
4.7 (12)Yards/Rush5.7 (32)
44.9% (6)3rd Down %41.0% (17)
64.0% (9)Red Zone %54.2% (14)
10 (15)Turnovers9 (18)
19 (20)Sacks17 (18)

CHARGERS AT FALCONS BETTING INSIGHTS

Why the Chargers Can Cover The Spread

The Falcons defense has struggled to get to the quarterback this year. In fact, Atlanta has the second fewest pressures in the NFL with only 39. This sets up nicely for the Chargers offensive line that has struggled to protect their franchise quarterback. Through seven games, the Chargers have allowed the seventh-most pressures to their quarterback with 64 in total.

To make matters worse for the Falcons front, Grady Jarret was dealing with a shoulder injury late in the Panthers game. If Jarrett is limited due to this injury, Herbert might have all day to throw. It may not matter who is healthy at receiver for the Chargers if the Falcons can’t get pressure on the young quarterback.

Lastly, the Falcons defense even when healthy has not provided much resistance to opponents. Atlanta ranks second worst in defensive DVOA (per Football Outsiders) Additionally, the Falcons have yielded the second most yards per play in the NFL with 6.3 through eight games. They could be in for a long day Sunday against Justin Herbert.

Why the Falcons Can Cover The Spread

Falcons and head coach Arthur Smith have made a commitment to the run this year, much to the chagrin of Atlanta fans who want Kyle Pitts and Drake London to get the ball more. Atlanta averages the fifth most rushing yards per game with 158.1. If Atlanta is going to cover this one, they will look to attack the weakness of this Chargers team which is their run defense. Los Angeles’ run defense has been one of the worst in the NFL through eight weeks, allowing 5.7 yards per carry.

In fact, they Chargers rank bottom five in the NFL rushing EPA. This sets up nicely for a Falcons team that runs the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL, with 33.5 rushes per game.

On top of that, the Chargers defense overall has been dismantled by virtually all their opponents. The Chargers defense is allowing the fourth most yards per play thus far, with 5.9. Even with the additions of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson, the Chargers have been unable to stop anyone outside of Denver.

Reasons To Bet The Over

Considering all of the factors above, I would consider playing the over. These two teams rank in the bottom five in defensive EPA. Neither team has provided much resistance to their opponents through eight weeks. I would expect that to continue this week.

Reasons To Bet The Under

Unless you’re buying into the notion these teams will put up strong defensive performances, there isn’t much of a case for the under here.

CHARGERS AT FALCONS PROPS: MATCHUPS TO WATCH FOR

Justin Herbert Vs. Falcons Secondary

The Chargers have been dealing with a slew of injuries at the wide receiver position. Keenan Allen played in the first half of their Week 7 game against the Seahawks but did not play in the second half because he could not accelerate off his injured leg. Joshua Palmer has been dealing with a concussion but was practicing during the media portion of practice on Monday. Injuries should not hinder Justin Herbert’s ability to move the ball since P.J. Walker was able to dice up this Falcons secondary. Last week, Walker and the Panthers offense had 8.4 yards per attempt against the hapless Falcons secondary.

Keep an eye on the injury report this week for the Falcons. Jaylinn Hawkins was out with a concussion against the Falcons. His replacement, Dean Marlowe, was targeted five times and only allowed one reception. The one reception he allowed? A 62-yard touchdown reception to DJ Moore to tie the game with 12 seconds left. To Marlowe’s credit, the Panthers were defending the boundaries and were not ready for a hail marry attempt.

In addition to the Hawkins injury, A.J. Terrell has been dealing with a hamstring injury. His replacement, Cornell Armstrong, has actually been a slight upgrade in two games in coverage. He’s allowed a 55% completion percentage as opposed to Terrell’s 66.7%. It is also worth noting that Terrell has allowed the most touchdowns of any cornerback in the NFL with seven.

Additionally, WR Joshua Palmer and TE Donald Parham Jr. cleared concussion protocol on Wednesday. Unfortunately, Keenan Allen did not practice Wednesday, as his hamstring injury has reportedly gotten worse during the bye week. It is possible he misses Sunday’s game.

Chargers Defense Vs. Falcons Run Game

The Chargers and Brandon Staley run a modern 3-4 defense that has placed emphasis on stopping the pass. Staley’s unit invites teams to run the ball as they would prefer to allocate more resources to defending the pass. This has proved to be problematic in all three of the Chargers losses. In their losses to the Chiefs and Seahawks in particular, the Chargers allowed over 5.0 yards per carry to each team. If teams are willing to commit to the run against Los Angeles, they should find themselves in good shape at the end of the game.

Rookie running back Caleb Huntley has seen increased workload for the Falcons, look for him to have a big game on the ground. However, Cordarrelle Patterson could be back from IR. Additionally, Marcus Mariota could have a big game as well. Mariota has had 43 or more rushing yards in three of the team’s last four games. Add in that Staley’s team runs man coverage on 38% of their snaps, I would expect Mariota to use his legs once again with the defense having their back turned to him.

Final thoughts

I already have a bet on the Chargers at -3. I would not recommend betting this at over the key number of 3 because you could get beat by the hook. Situationally, this game is a mess for Atlanta though – they are dealing with injuries on defense – they have a rest disadvantage – and their defense was on the field for 73 plays last week. In conclusion, I would not recommend placing a bet on the Falcons here unless it was at a good live number.

Best of luck handicapping Chargers Falcons Odds!

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