NFL Week 9 Betting Preview: Indianapolis Colts At New England Patriots Odds

Written By Brett Gibbons on November 4, 2022
Patriots Colts odds

The Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1) visit the New England Patriots (4-4) on Sunday, Nov. 6 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Kickoff is at 1:00 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on CBS. The Patriots are home favorites while the Colts are on the moneyline. Colts at Patriots odds feature an over/under set at .

In this article we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.

Colts Patriots Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

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Colts At Patriots Player Props

Search for a player in our NFL Player Props Search tool below by typing their name into the search bar. To place a bet, click on the odds in the table.

Colts At Patriots Weather

As of Nov. 1, weather in Foxborough is look perfect for football. The forecast calls for highs in the mid-70s, plenty of sunshine, and no rain. However, some moderate winds above 10 mph are possible. As with all weather in November in the northeast, be sure to stay up to date with changing conditions.

Colts At Patriots Betting News & Angles

Patriots Vs. Colts Injury Report

New England Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
David AndrewsCConcussionQuestionable60.4
Kyle DuggerDBAnkleQuestionable46.8
DeVante ParkerWRKneeQuestionable45.6
Josh UcheLBHamstringQuestionable23.5
Damien HarrisRBIllnessQuestionable21.0
Pierre Strong Jr.RBHamstringQuestionable7.5

Indianapolis Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Matt RyanQBShoulderQuestionable71.6
Ryan KellyCKneeQuestionable63.3
Stephon GilmoreCBRibProbable63.1
Jonathan TaylorRBAnkleQuestionable49.0
Kwity PayeDEAnkleProbable45.8
E.J. SpeedLBAnkleQuestionable41.1
Tyquan LewisDEKneeOut39.1
Dennis KellyOTCalfQuestionable31.3
Grant StuardLBPectoralQuestionable18.0
Tony BrownCBHamstringQuestionable16.8

Patriots Offense Vs. Colts Defense

Patriots OffenseStats (Rank)Colts Defense
22.1 (17)Points/Gm19.6 (7)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.3 (2)
334.5 (20)Yards/Gm319.8 (9)
211.4 (23)Pass Yards/Gm199.8 (8)
123.1 (13)Rush Yards/Gm120.0 (17)
5.5 (13)Yards/Play5.2 (8)
7.2 (7)Yards/Pass6.8 (17)
4.3 (21)Yards/Rush4.0 (3)
39.8% (17)3rd Down %32.7% (4)
45.8% (29)Red Zone %59.1% (19)
16 (30)Turnovers8 (22)
18 (18)Sacks19 (13)

Colts Offense Vs. Patriots Defense

Colts OffenseStats (Rank)Patriots Defense
16.1 (30)Points/Gm20.4 (12)
0.2 (30)Points/Play0.3 (2)
339.4 (18)Yards/Gm350.5 (19)
251.6 (9)Pass Yards/Gm224.5 (19)
87.8 (29)Rush Yards/Gm126.0 (22)
5.1 (25)Yards/Play5.5 (13)
6.3 (19)Yards/Pass6.6 (12)
3.7 (28)Yards/Rush4.8 (23)
40.4% (15)3rd Down %43.4% (27)
47.8% (26)Red Zone %56.0% (16)
16 (30)Turnovers16 (1)
26 (29)Sacks23 (5)

Colts At Patriots Betting Insights

Why The Patriots Can Cover The Spread

A bet on New England isn’t a bet for the Patriots, it’s a bet against the Colts. After Frank Reich said Indianapolis was benching Matt Ryan for the season in favor of Sam Ehlinger, it signaled that the Colts were waiving the white flag. Not only did the move come at a bizarre time where the Colts stood 3-3-1, but it also cut Ryan short of his necessary snap count to get a contract bonus.

The winds of change are aloft in Indy; Reich, along with Frank Ballard, are likely on their way out. Instead of coaching for their jobs, the Colts’ effort in Week 8 appeared to be a team that’s already focused on the offseason.

Defenses led by Bill Belichick succeed in haunting young QBs and this is Ehlinger’s second career start, first on the road. The Patriots are second in passing success rate allowed on the year and eighth in explosive passing play rate allowed (7%). Although New England’s metrics aren’t as strong against the run, Jonathan Taylor has had an underwhelming year and is playing injured behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.

There’s not many ways the Colts can move the football and that may be a death knell for Indy in this game on the road.

Why The Colts Can Cover The Spread

The Patriots are allowing the second-highest rushing success rate in the NFL and are below league-average in explosive runs allowed. Taylor briefly left last week’s loss to the Commanders, but returned to the game. On 107 attempts so far this season, Taylor only has one rushing touchdown– both an indicator of the Colts’ inept offense and rundown offensive line, but also a potential indicator of positive regression.

While the Colts are dealing with a QB situation, the Patriots aren’t in a much better spot. Mac Jones appears to be the starter for the time being, but the Patriots offense has moved the ball more efficiently under Bailey Zappe. The ground game is truly the backbone for this offense behind Rhamondre Stevenson, but it’s not an offense built to play from behind or separate themselves in games.

Spotting Indy with nearly a touchdown on the road could provide an opportunity on the always-competitive NFL.

Reasons To Bet The Over

At just points, Colts Patriots odds feature a reachable Over. Four times this season has a game involving the Patriots have gone over 39.5 points, last week reached 39 points, and three games have gone under. Should these teams trade explosive rushing touchdowns, points are going to be scored.

Reasons To Bet The Under

While the point total is very low, banking on a pair of run-heavy teams to hit over a point total isn’t the most exciting proposition. Belichick is famous for taking away a team’s top option, which in the Colts case is Taylor. Forcing Ehlinger to move the ball through the air against a terrific pass defense will force turnovers and hold the points to few points.

Colts At Patriots Props: Matchups To Watch For

Michael Pittman Vs. Patriots Corners: After trading away Stefon Gilmore and losing JC Jackson to free agency, the Patriots corners may no longer be household names, but they’re playing darn good football. Rookie corner Jack Jones leads PFF coverage grades this season and Jonathan Jones grades out inside the top-10. Terrific though they are, there’s one issue: the Pats don’t roster a corner over 6′ 0″ tall while Pittman stands 6′ 4″.

It’s easy to waive off Pittman as an option this week because of Ehlinger and the metrics on New England’s passing defense. However, don’t overlook an inexperienced QB’s willingness to throw 50/50 balls to his go-to receiver with a massive height advantage. Last week, Pittman saw nine targets.

Matthew Judon Vs. Matt Pryor: Pryor grades out as one of the worst pass blocking players in the NFL, per PFF, ranking 136th out of 140 eligible offensive linemen and tight ends. Judon is having another terrific season, already racking up 8.5 sacks, seven tackles for loss, and 15 QB hits– all career numbers at this point of the season. His sack number is tops in the NFL and his TFLs rank 12th.

Although mobile, Ehlinger’s 2.6 average seconds in the pocket last week would be fifth among starting QBs on the season. If he intends to spend that much time inside the pocket this week, Judon is going to have a field day against the Colts’ subpar tackles.

Final Thoughts

I can’t envision a world in which the Sam Ehlinger-led Colts walk into Foxborough and do much of anything against a Belichick defense. For decades he’s made a reputation of making young opposing QBs “see ghosts” and with the Colts’ absent offensive line, he’s going to be seeing ghosts and pass rushers often.

This week, I’ll be happy to fade a team that’s given all of the indicators that they’ve surrendered the season. Ehlinger is not a high-draft capital QB and he’s being thrust into a difficult situation on the road against a strong defense. I’ll be looking to bet under the Colts team total points, under nearly every Ehlinger prop I can find, and for the Patriots to cover .

Play up or play down as the Colts may to opponents, I anticipate Indy being one of the five worst teams in the NFL moving forward.

Best of luck betting Colts Patriots odds.

Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons