NFL Week 9 Implied Team Totals: Bills And Rams Projected Top-Scoring Teams

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on November 7, 2021
NFL Week 9 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 9 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 9 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Nov. 1, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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NFL Week 9 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under

Highest NFL Week 9 implied team totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price

Buffalo Bills

Is there anything to worry about with regard to the Buffalo offense? They rank just 11th in offense DVOA after a pretty lackluster effort against Miami in which they managed only 5.3 YPP.

The market doesn’t see any reason to worry, as everything looks good at first blush. After all, since the Week 1 disaster against Pittsburgh, they’ve averaged 35.5 points per game. However, they’ve feasted on short fields. Josh Allen’s performance has taken a noticeable dip, reflected in his QBR dropping from 81.7 to 62.

Still, they’re projected for another big day here against the atrocious Jacksonville pass defense. Unlike some other coaches, you can be sure the Buffalo staff won’t try to force the run game, and they’ll be happy to exploit the Jags’ weakness.

Kansas City Chiefs

Speaking of high-powered offenses that have hit a rut, the Chiefs’ woes have become an ongoing top story in the NFL.

A week after nearly getting blanked by Tennessee, the team struggled its way to 20 points at home against the Giants. Basically every Patrick Mahomes metric has taken a nosedive. The well-chronicled interception woes continued as well with another costly pick against New York.

The team now ranks outside the top five in both DVOA and EPA/play.

A Green Bay defense that mostly put the clamps on Kyler Murray and the Cardinals will not provide a soft spot to bounce back.

The Chiefs have a lot to shore up in a hurry. Every level of the offense has underperformed, and the coaching no longer appears a step ahead. But the market remains confident this is a good offense.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are a surprise inclusion here at first glance, but a few things have conspired to put them in rare air (for them) this week.

First and foremost, they face the Jets, and indoors. The Jets defense has been ravaged by injuries and is rough on their best day. They’re particularly poor against the pass, where they rank 26th in EPA/play allowed.

Plus, the Colts offense has been downright good of late. They rank eighth in EPA/play from Week 4 on as Carson Wentz and the offensive line have healed up from nagging injuries. Despite a 3-2 record in that time, they haven’t scored less than 25 points.

Of course, Wentz giveth and Wentz taketh away with disastrous turnovers.

But, given the numbers and the situation, it’s little surprise the market expects another good day from this offense.

Lowest NFL Week 9 implied team totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price

Atlanta Falcons

After starting the season in very ugly fashion, Atlanta found some new life a few weeks ago. The key adjustment: targeting Kyle Pitts repeatedly and down the field. Turns out featuring your freak TE in the offense pays dividends. Pitts went for nearly 300 yards combined against the Jets and Dolphins and the offense looks all the better for it.

However, Carolina put a stop to that by assigning top corner Stephon Gilmore to shadow Pitts at times. He tallied a pitiful 13 yards on 6 targets.

The Saints would certainly seem to have the pieces to copy that strategy. Marshon Lattimore excels against physically punishing receivers.

And with Calvin Ridley now out of the picture due to personal matters, defenses can freely focus their coverages around Pitts and force someone else to beat them. When “someone else” means Tajae Sharp and Olamide Zaccheaus, you know the Falcons are in trouble. We’ll see if Arthur Smith can cook something up to get this lackluster unit going.

New York Jets

Injury fill-in Mike White turned in a shockingly effective performance against the Bengals on Sunday as the Jets pulled the upset of the year to date. Can he sustain this sort of success in a moribund offense lacking any major weapons outside of the hobbled Corey Davis?

The market appears skeptical. Given White’s pedigree as a former fifth-rounder who threw his first NFL passes just two weeks ago, that seems warranted.

Still, the Colts have been notably poor getting to the QB, ranking at the stone bottom in pressure rate. White should have time to work and could surpass this total against a pass defense ranked 20th in DVOA.

Chicago Bears

Justin Fields turned in one of the highlights of the year against the 49ers.

But, outside of that moment of pure brilliance, it was another ugly game for the Bears offense. You can’t put up 4.8 yards per pass and expect to win in this league in 2021. The Bears rank dead last in that metric this season.

Things do not get any easier with the Steelers on tap on the road. It’s hard to imagine how Chicago can move the ball in this spot. Chicago has tried establishing the run recently but the Steelers have been very tough to run on, ranking sixth in rush defense DVOA.

Fields will likely have to keep taking his lumps as the market projects this as the worst-performing offense of Week 9.

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

New Orleans Saints

There was a time where an implied team total of 24 for the Saints against the Falcons meant a probable loss. No longer as New Orleans is actually a solid favorite despite this unexciting team total.

The big question, of course, is how much of a downgrade is Trevor Siemian from Jameis Winston? Siemian did manage to lead a few scoring drives against the Bucs.

A Falcons defense that ranks ahead of only Jacksonville in adjusted sack rate should give him a chance to succeed this week.

Houston Texans

One might notice the Houston Texans conspicuously absent from the bottom of this list. In fact, they didn’t even make the bottom tier this week.

Considering Davis Mills again led the team to getting shut out until the final minutes, this looks like a clear sign the market expects Tyrod Taylor to return from injury. Taylor was ruled out fairly late last week, on Friday, but the staff has repeatedly said he will retake the starting job when physically able to do so.

The Dolphins showed some life on defense against the Bills. If they can bring that sort of energy again, and Taylor again misses the game, this number could wind up looking awfully high.

Tennessee Titans

We may find out this week just how much a running back can matter in 2021. Given the indestructible nature of Derrick Henry in his career, we’ve never gotten an extended look at what his absence does to this Titans offense.

He’ll be sorely missed this week especially as the Rams enjoy inviting opposing teams to run the ball. That strategy may have blown up in their faces with Henry barreling into their soft schemes. It might work like a charm now.

The Titans passing game just hasn’t looked dynamic at all in its first year in awhile without Arthur Smith. The team really needs a healthy Julio Jones but that seems as rare as an injured Derrick Henry these days. Keep tabs on this one to figure out what this offense looks like going forward without its workhorse.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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