The Recency Report: NFL Week 7 Market Moves And Week 8 Look-Ahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on October 17, 2019
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Every week, TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. These advance lines are posted every Thursday, a full week before the ensuing games on the schedule.

In this article we also take a look at the current lines compared to the opening lines at FanDuel Sportsbook from the previous week. Here’s a look at some of the storylines and betting situations that have impacted (or could impact) the Week 7 NFL card:

  • A quarterback change in Tennessee will have Ryan Tannehill starting in Week 7 when the Titans (-2) host the Chargers. Tannehill was the No. 8 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft and takes over for Marcus Mariota, who continued to struggle as the former No. 2 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft. Mariota was benched last week after completing just 7-of-18 passes for 63 yards and 2 interceptions. Tannehill relieved him and went 13-of-16 for 114 and 1 interception in a 16-0 loss at Denver. They were sacked a total of 7 times. The Chargers pass defense is allowing 201 passing yards per game to rank No. 5 in the league, but 7.8 yards per pass is No. 26. The Titans are averaging just 187 passing yards per game and 29 attempts per game to rank bottom four in both categories. Tennessee’s 17.8 pass completions per game is last in the league.
  • San Francisco (5-0) continues to shine and remains the only undefeated team in the NFC following a 20-7 beatdown of division rival Rams in Los Angeles. The 49ers held the Rams to 157 total yards at 3.1 yards per play and 0-for-9 on third down. FanDuel Sportsbook has San Francisco a 9.5-point road favorite at Washington in Week 7, and bettors don’t believe there will be a letdown as San Francisco is taking more than 80% of the spread bets as the most supported team in Week 7.
  • The Rams made some moves and acquired disgruntled CB Jalen Ramsey from the Jaguars for two future first-round draft picks.  The Rams traded their other CB Marcus Peters this week and put CB Aquib Talib on injured reserve (IR). On offense, left guard Joe Noteboom missed last weeks game and is now out for the remainder of 2019 with a torn ACL and MCL Rams RB Todd Gurley’s (quad) status hasn’t yet been updated this week, but RB Malcolm Brown (ankle) is a little banged up leaving Darrell Henderson as the only fully healthy running back. The Rams (-3) are favored at Atlanta in Week 7 and more than 70% of spread bets are on the Rams.
  • The Bears (-3) return from their bye to host the Saints (5-1), who have won four straight games with QB Teddy Bridgewater. Saints RB Alvin Kamara will be less than 100% when he plays as he’s dealing with a “high-ankle type issue.” Bettors are lining up on the Saints, with two out every three spread bets on New Orleans including at FanDuel Sportsbook, which had the Saints at +3.5 (-120) as of Thursday afternoon.
  • There’s a big game in Dallas, where the NFC East Cowboys (3-3) and Eagles (3-3) play for first place in a Sunday Night Football showdown. The Cowboys have lost three straight games following last week’s 24-22 loss at New York as a 7-point favorite against the Jets. Most of the betting tickets are coming in on the Eagles, despite Philadelphia getting beaten badly at Minnesota last week 38-20. The Eagles secondary has been in bad shape with injuries, but cornerbacks Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby are practicing this week and expected to return to the field along with wide receiver Desean Jackson (abdomen), who has missed the past four games.

The Week 7 betting guide highlights the games with plenty of betting analysis for you to consume. Below we take a look at the market movement on this week’s games along with the reasons why the lines have shifted to help you with your handicapping.

How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to previous weeks scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

Week 7 market movement

Injuries and changes in personnel continue to affect NFL teams and the betting market, as last week the Vikings took money and the line moved from -3 to -3.5 over the weekend as the Eagles injury issues continued. This week we noted that backup QB Ryan Tannehill will now start for Tennessee, making him the 12th backup quarterback to now start this season. The advance look ahead line had the Titans -1, and now Tennessee is -2 but more bets are on the Chargers this week (more than 60% of spread bets).

Back-to-back losses by the Chiefs (4-2) combined with improved play and back-to-back wins by the Broncos (2-4) has seen the Thursday night spread drop from KC -4.5 to KC -3 despite the Chiefs taking more than 3 out of every 4 spread bets. Kansas City is missing more starters again this week including along the offensive line. The Chiefs have been run over at the point of attack the last two weeks, getting out-rushed by the Texans 192-53 and by the Colts 180-36. The Broncos rushed for 103 and 191 yards the past two weeks. The Chiefs only had the ball for 20 minutes on offense last week and 23 minutes the previous week, and the Texans ran 87 offensive plays against the Chiefs defense last week in Houston’s 31-24 win at Kansas City.

More bets are coming in on the NY Giants with the expected return of RB Saquon Barkley (knee) and TE Evan Engram (MCL). Watch announcements on these and other Giants injured players as the line has gone up to -3 favoring New York over Arizona at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, adjacent to the Meadowlands and FanDuel Sportsbook.

GameOpenCurrent
Kansas City at Denver (Thurs)KC -4.5KC -3
Arizona at NY GiantsNYG -3NYG -3
Houston at IndianapollisIND -3IND -1
Miami at BuffalcoBUF -15.5BUF -16.5
Minnesota at DetroitDET -1MIN -1
Oakland at Green BayGB -7GB -5.5
Jacksonville at CincinnatiJAX -3JAX -4
LA Rams at AtlantaLAR -4LAR -3
San Francisco at WashingtonSF -9.5SF -10
LA Chargers at TennesseeTEN -1TEN -2
Baltimore at SeattleSEA -4SEA -3.5
New Orleans at ChicagoCHI -3CHI -3.5
Philadelphia at Dallas DAL -2.5DAL -3
New England at NY JetsNE -10NE -10

Analysis: The key game in the AFC is the Colts (3-2) hosting the Texans (4-2) in a first place battle in the AFC South. The spread bets are close, slightly favoring the Houston Texans, who are looking to get rid of the sour taste of last year’s 21-7 home playoff loss to the Colts in the wild card round. The Texans are 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog with QB Deshaun Watson under center in his career, including 3-0 ATS this season. While Watson and Colts QB Jacoby Brissett look to make plays in the passing game to their star receivers Hopkins and Hilton, it’s the point of attack play that may decide this key contest. The Texans are top-5 in rushing at 140 rushing YPG and 5.0 yards per rush while the Colts run defense allows 5.1 yards per rush to rank bottom five in the league.

NFL Week 8 look-ahead lines

Week 8 includes a most anticipated matchup of Green Bay at Kansas City with both teams looking to hold onto first place in their divisions pending Week 7 results. The Redskins and Vikings (-14) open Week 8 on Thursday with the second-largest point spread behind Monday night’s Dolphins at Steelers (-15.5) match-up. The NFL is wishing they could change that MNF match-up with the Dolphins disaster and forgettable season. In a strange scheduling week; there are no division games.

GameFanDuel Spread
Redskins at VikingsMIN -14
Cardinals at SaintsNO -7.5
Bengals vs Rams (London)LAR -9
Chargers at BearsCHI -5
Giants at LionsDET -7.5
Raiders at TexansHOU -7
Eagles at BillsBUF -1
Seahawks at FalconsSEA -3
Buccaneers at TitansTEN -1.5
Panthers at 49ersSF -4.5
Browns at PatriotsNE -10
Broncos at ColtsIND -6
Packers at ChiefsKC -4
Dolphins at SteelersPIT -15.5

In May, Las Vegas sportsbook CG Technology released NFL lines on every 2019 regular-season game. The biggest projected lines in Week 8: New Orleans -14.5 over Arizona followed by the LA Rams -13 over Cincinnati in London. Also, Pittsburgh -1o over Miami and New England -8.5 over Cleveland were part of a week of larger point spreads along with Minnesota -7.5 over Washington and Kansas City -7 over Green Bay. Two other spreads of a touchdown or greater included Indianapolis -7 over Denver and Houston -7 over Oakland. FanDuel Sportsbook Week 8 look-ahead lines show the Saints -7.5, Rams -9, Chiefs -4 and Steelers -15.5 as noted differences.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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