NFL Week 8 Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on October 30, 2022
packers bills odds

The 3-4 Green Bay Packers head into upstate New York on Sunday Night Football to play the 5-1 Buffalo Bills. Primary markets show the Bills as spread favorites, with the Packers hefty underdogs on the moneyline. Packers Bills odds feature an over/under of .

The Packers are looking to get back into the winning column after a rough run of form, while the Bills are on a high after beating the Chiefs in a possible AFC Championship preview. Green Bay is the biggest underdog it’s been in Aaron Rodgers’ career. It’s also the biggest spread on the NFL Week 8 odds board.

Packers Bills Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

The Packers Bills odds table effectively shows all the legal sportsbook odds for each of the three main markets – spreads, totals, and moneylines – so that bettors can know what they’re getting is the best price. Just use the dropdown menu to toggle between the type of bet you want, and then make sure you’re getting the best price when you bet.

If you’re looking at spreads, getting an extra half point on either side can make or break the difference, and getting the best side of a total points market can be crucial as well. When it comes to Moneyline betting, you always want to get the best number possible – all three things that the easy comparison points of the Odds Table allow.

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Packers vs. Bills Player Props

The props tool enables bettors to effectively track Packers Bills odds across sportsbooks for every player prop, to make sure that bettors aren’t missing out on a better total, or a better value, on a player prop.

Whether it’s getting a total you want to bet an Over on 5 yards lower, or a line where you have to pay less juice, the Props tool enables bettors to make sure they’re not missing out on the best available Sunday Night Football odds.

Packers vs. Bills Betting News & Angles

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Bills Vs. Packers Injury Report

Buffalo Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Spencer BrownOTFootOut53.8
Taiwan JonesRBKneeQuestionable15.3

Green Bay Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Allen LazardWRShoulderOut57.3
David BakhtiariOTKneeQuestionable49.8
Rashan GaryLBConcussionQuestionable47.9
Christian WatsonWRHamstringQuestionable27.3
Shemar Jean-CharlesCBAnkleOut12.5

Bills Offense Vs. Packers Defense

Bills OffenseStats (Rank)Packers Defense
29.3 (2)Points/Gm20.9 (14)
0.4 (3)Points/Play0.4 (19)
440.8 (1)Yards/Gm308.4 (7)
323.0 (1)Pass Yards/Gm168.9 (1)
117.8 (16)Rush Yards/Gm139.6 (27)
6.6 (1)Yards/Play5.4 (12)
7.9 (1)Yards/Pass6.4 (9)
4.8 (10)Yards/Rush4.8 (24)
52.8% (1)3rd Down %30.0% (3)
54.5% (15)Red Zone %44.4% (6)
10 (21)Turnovers5 (29)
9 (1)Sacks15 (16)

Packers Offense Vs. Bills Defense

Packers OffenseStats (Rank)Bills Defense
18.3 (23)Points/Gm13.5 (1)
0.3 (15)Points/Play0.2 (1)
331.6 (21)Yards/Gm281.5 (1)
221.3 (17)Pass Yards/Gm205.3 (11)
110.3 (18)Rush Yards/Gm76.2 (1)
5.3 (17)Yards/Play4.8 (4)
6.1 (23)Yards/Pass6.0 (6)
4.6 (14)Yards/Rush3.5 (1)
35.4% (25)3rd Down %38.9% (13)
60.0% (9)Red Zone %50.0% (9)
9 (16)Turnovers13 (3)
15 (15)Sacks19 (7)

Packers vs. Bills Betting Insights

Reasons The Packers Can Cover The Spread

The last time Aaron Rodgers was a more than a touchdown underdog was in 2018, when the Packers went to Los Angeles to play the then-unbeaten Rams, and Rodgers delivered. Getting one of the best QBs of all time at this price is quite rare. The Packers Pass Defense isn’t that bad – 11th by DVOA, 6th by PFF grading – and while their Run Defense is horrific, Buffalo doesn’t run. If they can get pressure – 3rd in the league in Pressure Rate – then they might have a chance to slow down the prolific Bills offense enough that Rodgers can put up enough points to be competitive.

Why The Bills can cover the spread

The problem for the Packers with the comparison to that Rams game is that Aaron Rodgers was clearly still the better Quarterback than Jared Goff, which is not true now. Josh Allen is 2nd in the league in EPA/Play, while Rodgers is a lowly 23rd.

The Bills’ Defense is also not getting the attention it deserves – 1st in DVOA, 5th by PFF, the Bills should be able to lock down a Packers Offense that is inconsistent and prone to mistakes. If the Bills can score, which the 2nd best DVOA offense should be able to – then the Packers will have struggles coming back from it, especially if they get into negative script and the Packers end up in obvious passing situations. Throw in the likely absence of Allan Lazard, and the Packers are in deep trouble.

Reasons to bet the over

The Packers have no discernible offensive path forward, but the thing about Rodgers is that he usually is able to will bad offenses to at least 20 points, even without many, or any, weapons on the outside. If the packers can hit that number, then the Bills only need to score in the mid 20s, which is quite likely.

Unless the Bills stall out at unfortunate times and/or have untimely turnovers, they should score around 30, making it highly likely this game goes over.

Reasons to bet the under

The Packers getting an early lead and being able to run the ball all game, killing clock, would be the only way this game goes under. If they can rush out to that early lead, it’s in play, but if they’re having to pass in a negative script, it’s highly unlikely to be an under.

Packers vs. Bills Props: Matchups To Watch For

Josh Allen Rushing Yards: O/U / ()

With the Packers’ blitz heavy defensive schemes, the Packers are going to leave themselves short men in coverage. That means Green Bay will also be short of defenders around to stop Josh Allen if he hits the outside. If Allen manages to evade the blitz, he can be a mobile runner, and whether or not he can turn imminent sacks into positive yards will be key in this game.

Final Thoughts

The Packers are not a good team, and the old offensive strategy of giving it to Rodgers and hoping he can figure it out doesn’t work anymore. The fact the Packers couldn’t beat the Commanders should be terrifying enough, but the fact that Rodgers and Matt LaFleur have been sniping in the press should ring even more alarm bells.

The Bills, on the other hand, are built to cover spreads like this. They’re pass heavy even when leading, and they won’t run suboptimal offense when ahead. Unless the Packers can actually get Allen down, the Bills should be fine. The fact that the Packers only get pressure when blitzing – they blitz 3rd most in the league – means that when they don’t get home, Allen will have a pass he can make.

Nothing about this Packers team inspires any confidence they can actually do anything, and they finally aren’t getting the benefit of the Rodgers doubt. They’re not good, and the Bills are elite.

Sometimes, that’s all there is to it.

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