Evan and John look to stay hot this week, after nailing the Jets and Giants in Week 6. Below are five Week 8 NFL bets (against the spread) to help guide you through your handicapping process. The grid below shows all of our ATS bets for this week as well
TheLines Staff NFL Week 8 Bets Grid
Some of the numbers below were bet early in the week and are no longer available. That’s why you should join our Discord betting channel to be alerted when our staff places bets throughout the week in the #roles channel. It is free to join.
Favorite Week 8 Bets
Stephen Andress: Giants +3 at Seahawks
The DK Metcalf injury here would be significant. According to PlayerProfiler, he’s No. 3 in the NFL in target rate vs. man coverage. The Giants play the most man coverage in the league at slightly over 50%, a rate that has gone over 60% each of the past two weeks, per Pro Football Focus. If Metcalf is out/hobbled, Seattle will have a tougher time scoring without its man coverage beater.
For the Giants offense, this appears to be an ideal matchup for Daniel Jones. He’s top five in completion percentage and passer rating against zone coverage. After toying with more than 40% man coverage in Week 4 and 5 and getting gashed by the Saints and Lions offenses, the Seahawks have reverted back to mostly zone defense. Playing less than 20% man coverage, Seattle held Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert to less than 5 yards per play.
But Daniel Jones loves zone. And we’re getting a full field goal. Oh, and Brian Daboll is a god.
Eli Hershkovich: Cardinals (+3.5) at Vikings
You can find my explanation for this wager in my Week 8 NFL bets column.
Brett Gibbons: Broncos ML (+118) vs. Jaguars
Deep breath here.
London games are always weird and I typically avoid betting them. But one thing that holds true in football is that defense travels and if the Broncos have one thing this season, it’s a lockdown defense. They’re third on the season in scoring (16.4 points per game) and first in success rate allowed (39.3%). The Broncos are also the NFL’s top-graded coverage team, per PFF, and match up well against a Jaguars receiving corps that lacks any great separators.
Baron Browning and Caden Sterns logged DNPs as of Thursday, but Denver boasts impressive safety and linebacking depth. There’s also rumblings that Bradley Chubb could be traded, but as far as I know, he’s on the plane and playing Sunday morning.
Jokes aside, Russell Wilson is an upgrade over whoever the Broncos limp to the barn with otherwise (sorry, Brett Rypien). The Broncos offense is a painful weekly watch, especially without Javonte Williams, but they likely won’t need an avalanche of points to handle the Jaguars.
For what it’s worth, this line is below the lookahead (Broncos +3) and has been bet down from Broncos +4 at DraftKings Sportsbook. We’ve even seen a DEN +2 flash on Thursday.
I currently rank the Broncos one spot ahead of the Jaguars in my power rankings– a sentiment not reflected in our staff NFL power rankings– so I’m putting my money where my mouth is. It’s not going to be enjoyable, but I believe it to be the right play.
Evan Scrimshaw: 49ers (-1.5) at Rams
Trusting the Niners has been a bit of an up and down experience so far this season, but this has to be a spot to get back on them. The Rams’ OL is bottom 10 in both Adjusted Sack Rate and Pressure Allowed. It faces the second-best defense in Pressure Rate. The Niners are second in the league in sacks, and they do that with a below average blitz rate – meaning they get home while sending only four. Matt Stafford, whatever his talents, is not the kind of mobile QB who can bail out this line.
On the other side of the ball, the Niners offense has been fine, even with their two-week skid. With a full week of Christian McCaffrey in the building, he’ll be in line for more snaps than last week and an increase in usage, especially in the passing game. Knowing Shanahan, he’ll use the threat of CMC to open up short passes for Jimmy G, and the Niners bevy of playmakers will make enough plays to beat the limp Rams.
John Haslbauer: Falcons (-4.5) vs. Panthers
The Falcons have been one of the surprise teams of the 2022 season, and although their 3-4 record may not necessary reflect that, a 6-1 ATS record against a No. 7 ranked Strength of Schedule suggests we should not take the record at face value.
They did just get humbled against a frustrated Bengals offense last week, but prior to that, their 3 losses came by a combined 9 points. A difficult SOS to start means this will be their first game of the season as favorites, but the Falcons’ 3-0 record when less than 4-point underdogs is an encouraging sign that they can take of business against lesser opponents.
This line gets a significant discount after the Panthers’ surprise win over the Buccaneers as 13-point underdogs last week. It was an inspiring effort by the players who were assumed to be left for dead the remainder of the season after trading away Christian McCaffery. Regardless of what it means to beat a Bucs team in this current state, it’s clear the Panthers roster is in “Let’s see what we’ve got” mode, and not “Contend to win the NFC South mode”, after selling so early into the season.
I expect (XFL legend) PJ Walker to regress back into his role of below average NFL quarterback this week, and see a 10+ point victory on the horizon for this rising Falcons squad.