Eli’s NFL Week 8 Best Bets: Spread Picks For Texans At Panthers, Chiefs At Broncos
With NFL Week 8 odds nearing kickoff, this article guides bettors with price discovery and handicapping point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals across NFL betting sites. In particular, two lines stood out — juxtaposed to my numbers. They involve the Panthers vs. Texans and the Broncos vs. Chiefs. With that in mind, let’s examine my NFL Week 8 best bets for these two games.
Click any odds to place a bet at the best sports betting sites. The following numbers represent the best odds available in your state.
bet: panthers (+3) to lose by fewer than three points (or win outright)
Some bettors may be unfamiliar with the aforementioned term, price discovery. As bets come in on the opening point spread, the process initiates. Bettors’ early action is used to adjust the number. Sportsbooks could also follow the same script of operators deemed “market makers,” tinkering with their prices because a polarizing competitor shifted theirs. Needless to say, their liability tolerance (or lack thereof) could be enough to alter the odds themselves, too.
As for Panthers odds, they rightfully readjusted from the preseason look-ahead line of -3 before reopening +3. The best odds available are currently . Some modification was warranted, but to what degree?
Rookies On Opposite Paths
Carolina is winless and has failed to cover the number once in the 2023 campaign. The lone push came via the backdoor in the home loss to the Saints in Week 2. Nevertheless, four of the six games have come on the road — against nearly as arduous of a schedule as Houston has faced. For context, I have the difference in their average opponents at under a half-point.
However, Bryce Young has yet to showcase his projected talent — unlike his counterpart C.J. Stroud, the odds-on favorite to take home the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year at . After opening the year with the second-shortest price tag, Young’s odds have stretched out to . Despite the Panthers’ below-average pass protection, he’s tied with Daniel Jones for the second-worst adjusted EPA per play among qualified quarterbacks.
Believe it or not, there’s a silver lining. Following their bye week, offensive coordinator Thomas Brown has seized control of the play-calling duties from Frank Reich. They’re also expecting the return of right guard Austin Corbett, who suffered a torn ACL in January. Corbett turned into one of the better pass-blockers at his position in 2022. With Carolina at its floor market value, it’s time to (begrudgingly) buy-in.
On the flip side, Stroud’s kryptonite remains his decision-making when opposing defenses generate heat in the backfield. He ranks No. 27 in both pressured completion percentage and catchable pass rate while under fire. Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero utilizes blitz packages at the league’s 12th-highest rate. Look for edge rushers Brian Burns and Justin Houston to make their mark.
Although the Texans showcase a healthier offensive line than earlier in the season, it’s a jumbled-up bunch with Scott Quessenberry and Kendrick Green out for the year.
- Editor’s Note: Burnes (elbow) was absent from Friday’s practice, making his Week 8 status uncertain.
I’d bet the Panthers down to +3 (-115) for the first of my NFL Week 8 best bets. Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord to get an alert when I first place a bet. Head to the #roles server to enroll in the push notifications.
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bet: broncos (+8) to lose by fewer than eight points (or win outright)
Milking The Clock
Finally, I cashed with Broncos odds against the spread for the first time in five wagers. Even though Denver hasn’t taken down Kansas City since the Peyton Manning era, we’re returning to the well, for better or worse.
The AFC West foes battled in Week 6. In the first half’s waning seconds, Sean Payton took a timeout on fourth down. Instead of heading to the locker room, Patrick Mahomes & Co. drove down for a field goal. It wound up constituting the difference in the 10.5-point spread. That said, the Broncos continuously exploited the Chiefs on the ground, accumulating a 52% rushing success rate. The league average is 39.4%.
This level of production isn’t a fluke. Kansas City is surrendering an above-average rushing efficiency while also yielding the third-most EPA per carry. To make matters worse, Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton, one of their premier run-stoppers, will miss roughly the next two months after dislocating his wrist against the Chargers. The Broncos’ offensive line, which owns the league’s second-ranked run-block win rate, will take advantage yet again.
A healthier Javonte Williams, who tallied 5.5 yards per tote despite representing the only running back in Week 7 to face a stacked box on 40% or more of his carries, plays in their favor as well.
Remember that Denver is dead last in situation-neutral tempo. When the run game operates smoothly, it takes pressure off Russell Wilson, who has orchestrated one of the worst second-half offenses, while simultaneously keeping the more menacing group on the sideline.
Granted, Kansas City is 4-1 ATS when laying over a field goal in 2023. Even with tight end Travis Kelce playing through a bum ankle, he and Mahomes have decimated the opposition. But one of the Chiefs’ weaknesses is their offensive line. Recently, I’ve upgraded the Broncos’ defense, partly because of Baron Browning’s reinsertion. The third-year LB should make his presence felt off the edge for a second straight week. Browning contributed four pressures and a 25% pass-rush win rate in his season debut versus the Packers.
As you’ll find below, I bet the Broncos +8 (-110) earlier in the week. If you would have been more inclined to wager at that price, that’s the benefit of subscribing to the aforementioned Discord. I’d play them down to +7.5 (-120) — in a possible look-ahead spot for the Chiefs with the Dolphins on deck. The best spread available for Denver is currently . Good luck with your NFL Week 8 best bets.
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