Week 7 NFL Betting: Upset Predictions For Longshot Parlays & Pick ‘Em Pools
Underdogs are a focal point for many bettors on the NFL Week 7 odds board. Choosing the most valuable ones at NFL betting sites isn’t easy. Below are three plus-money teams to remember if you usually throw pizza money on moneyline parlays or same-game parlays. This potential three-team parlay isn’t a personal wager on my card, but you can also read up on those separate NFL best bets later this week.
Click on any of the following odds to place a bet at the best sports betting sites. These prices are the best available odds in your state.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams
Very rarely have bookmakers shown respect for Steelers odds in 2023. Rightfully so, as Pittsburgh’s offense doesn’t have much to write home about. After manufacturing gaudy preseason numbers, Kenny Pickett has generated the fourth-lowest adjusted EPA per play among qualified quarterbacks. He ranks ahead of Daniel Jones, Bryce Young, and Zach Wilson. Collectively, the Steelers’ unit delivers the same standing in that metric.
Nevertheless, the betting market could be attempting to overcorrect for Pittsburgh’s fraudulent 3-2 record. Not only is Mike Tomlin’s team coming off a bye week, giving All-Pro edge rusher T.J. Watt a chance to heal his nagging injuries, but it’s also facing a Rams team that is outperforming its .500 mark in its own right. Remember that the aging Matthew Stafford showcases a below-average dropback EPA and success rate since wideout Cooper Kupp returned to the lineup in Week 5.
The best price on the moneyline to bet on a Pittsburgh win: .
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City chiefs
If you’re unfamiliar with “Chargering,” it’s worth explaining. Including Monday’s loss to Dallas, 19 of their last 24 games have been decided by seven points or fewer. That dates back to Week 18 of the 2021 season — an overtime defeat at the Raiders, which kept them out of the playoffs. One way or another, those betting Chargers odds should brace themselves for close games. This point spread projects for another one.
Conversely, Chiefs odds are 17-27 ATS (38.6%) as field-goal favorites since 2020. Why have Patrick Mahomes & Co. struggled to cash in big numbers? Outside of last week’s victory over the Broncos, Mahomes is a pro at milking the clock. On top of that, Kansas City’s defense has generally been vulnerable in one area, gifting the opponent a chance at a backdoor cover. The run defense has let up the NFL’s fourth-most EPA per carry this time.
Putting your hard-earned money behind Los Angeles coach Brandon Staley and QB Justin Herbert isn’t for the faint of heart. However, the most valuable Chargers ML odds are if you’re willing to do so.
- Related: Super Bowl odds for the 2023 NFL season
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles
With these teams combining for just two losses, this game represents one of the best matchups of the regular season. Substantial injuries along the offensive line could mar each offense, though.
Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson has a lateral ankle sprain that led to an early exit in their last-minute loss at the Jets. QB Jalen Hurts was notably more distressed after Johnson’s departure, and his turnover-worthy plays increased. He has 10 of them on the season.
Meanwhile, Dolphins center Connor Williams missed his second game in three weeks with a groin injury. Unsurprisingly, the Dolphins’ ultra-explosive offense relies on Williams’ timing with Tua Tagovailoa. His absence would be a large blow against the Eagles’ physical front.
Therefore, monitoring the injury report is crucial — regardless of which side bettors are considering. If things break right for Miami in that regard, I have Mike McDaniel’s team positioned higher than the Eagles in my personal power ratings. The most valuable Dolphins odds are .
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