The Recency Report: NFL Week 6 Market Moves And Week 7 Look-Ahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on October 13, 2019

Every week, TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. These advance lines are posted every Thursday, a full week before the ensuing games on the schedule.

In this article we also take a look at the current lines compared to the opening lines at FanDuel Sportsbook from the previous week. Here’s a look at some of the storylines and betting situations that have impacted (or could impact) the Week 6 NFL card:

  • Injuries are mounting for the New York Giants (2-3), who are banged up and bruised heading into their Thursday night game at New England (5-0) as a huge 17-point underdog. The Giants will play without RB Saquon Barkley (Ankle), WR Sterling Shepard (Concussion), TE Evan Engram (Knee), and WR Wayne Gallman (Concussion). The Giants are not only the biggest underdog ever on Thursday Night Football, but also the biggest underdog (+17) in the history of the franchise. New England has outscored opponents 155-34 while playing the softest schedule in the league with wins over the 1-win Steelers and winless Redskins, Jets and Dolphins – the three lowest-scoring teams in the league.
  • Will the San Francisco 49ers (4-0) remain the only undefeated team in the NFC? The 49ers are a 3.5-point underdog at Los Angeles in a key division contest against the Rams. San Francisco comes off a 31-3 bashing of the Browns on Monday night, and get short rest and recovery against the Rams, who enter off a 30-29 loss at Seattle last Thursday with extra rest and preparation for the 49ers league-best rushing attack averaging 200 yards per game and 38.5 rushing attempts per contest.
  • The least-watched and bet game of the week is likely Washington (0-5) at Miami (0-4), who both remain winless and are playing pathetic football. Try to stomach betting either side, but imagine the Redskins being a 3.5-point road favorite, and also dealing with a fired head coach after Jay Gruden was let go following last week’s loss to New England. The Redskins have been out-scored by 78 points in five games. But let this sink in. The Dolphins have been outscored by 137 points in four games. The loser will be in prime position for next year’s No. 1 draft pick.
  • The Panthers (3-2) and Saints (4-1) have each won three-straight games with backup quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Teddy Bridgewater. Carolina tackles Tampa Bay (2-3) in London as a 2-point favorite in a NFC South division duel. The Buccaneers held off the Panthers 20-14 as a 6.5-point underdog in Week 2. New Orleans travels to Jacksonville as a 1-point underdog looking to hold onto the NFC South division lead.
  • How many more games will Dan Quinn be the head coach of the Falcons? Atlanta (1-4) continues to underachieve, and the offense under new coordinator Dirk Koetter is one dimensional with one of the worst rushing attacks in the league. The Falcons have no excuses not to fly this week as a 2.5-point road favorite at Arizona. The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the league allowing 408 yards per game at 6.1 yards per play and at least 23 points allowed in all five games this season.
  • Footballs will be flying in Kansas City with the Chiefs (4-1) and Texans (3-2) likely piling up points with the highest total of the week (55). Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes leads the league averaging 366 passing yards per game with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Texans QB Deshaun Watson is passing for 272 yards per game with 11 touchdowns and just one interception.

The Week 6 betting guide highlights the games with plenty of betting analysis for you to consume. Below we take a look at the market movement on this week’s games along with the reasons why the lines have shifted to help you with your handicapping.

How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to previous weeks scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

Week 6 market movement

Injuries and changes in personnel continue to affect NFL teams and the betting market. Another quarterback went down last week, as Steelers backup Mason Rudolph was knocked unconscious and is a game time decision in Week 6 at Los Angeles. So third string undrafted rookie QB Devlin Hodges is preparing to play. The Chargers were upset at home last week 19-13 by the Broncos.

The betting lines can move quickly, and the oddsmakers and sportsbooks are scrambling with so many injuries and the money consistently supporting the Patriots and Chiefs. FanDuel Sportsbook took a majority of bets on the Patriots again this week with at least three out of every four spread bets on New England in their Thursday match-up versus the injured and unsettled Giants. Other teams taking a larger percentage of bets in Week 6 include the Seahawks, Saints, Falcons, Cowboys and Chargers.

The biggest line adjustment in Week 6 from the look-ahead line was on the Patriots, who are up to -16.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook and -17 at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Browns were a three-point favorite on the advance line last week, but following a poor performance Monday night along with Seattle’s extra rest and preparation off a win last Thursday, the Seahawks are now a two-point favorite.

See the rest of the line adjustments and comparisons in the chart below, and note the adjustments on the underdog Houston Texans at Kansas City and the Dolphins against the Washington Redskins at Miami in a battle of winless teams.

GameOpenCurrent
NY Giants at New England (Thurs)NE -14NE -16.5
Carolina vs Tampa Bay (London)CAR -1CAR -2
Cincinnati at BaltimoreBAL -9BAL -10.5
Seattle at ClevelandCLE -3SEA -1
Houston at Kansas CityKC -8KC -3.5
New Orleans at JacksonvilleJAX -1.5JAX -2
Philadelphia at MinnesotaMIN -2.5MIN -3.5
Washington at MiamiWASH -5.5WASH -3.5
San Francisco at LA RamsLAR -4.5LAR -3.5
Atlanta at ArizonaATL -3ATL -2.5
Dallas at NY JetsDAL -6.5DAL -7.5
Tennessee at DenverDEN -1.5DEN -1.5
Pittsburgh at LA ChargersLAC -6LAC -6
Detroit at Green Bay (Monday)GB -5.5GB -4

Analysis:

  • Seattle at Cleveland: This is one of two games in Week 6 that the NFL did a real disservice to the teams coming off a Monday night game. The Browns lost at San Francisco Monday night 31-3 while the Seahawks played last Thursday and held off for a 30-29 win on a last-second missed field goal by the Rams kicker. So that’s 10 days of rest and preparation for Seattle and just six days for Cleveland. Same for the 49ers, who get six days rest and prep for a key NFC West division game at LA with the Rams having 10 days between games.

Week 7 look-ahead lines

Week 7 includes the Chiefs and Broncos in Denver Thursday night with the Chiefs projected as 4.5-point favorites. Other key division games include Houston at Indianapolis (-1.5) with the Colts slight favorites. Miami is at Buffalo (-15.5) in another lopsided spread against the Dolphins who will be double-digit dogs most weeks this season.  Minnesota at Detroit is a pick’em in a key NFC North contest.

Dallas at Philadelphia will be one of the most-bet games in Week 7 with the key division contest for first place set for Sunday night. The Patriots will be a double-digit favorite against the Jets to complete the division schedule in Week 7 on Monday night. The crowd at Met Life Stadium will be wild, but the fans next door at the Meadowlands FanDuel Sportsbook will be betting plenty and looking to cash in looking to cash in. But will it be on the Jets?

GameFanDuel Spread
Chiefs at Broncos KC -4.5
Cardinals at NY GiantsNYG -3
Texans at ColtsIND -3
Dolphins at Bills BUF -15.5
Vikings at LionsDET -1
Raiders at PackersGB -7
Jaguars at BengalsJAX -3
LA Rams at FalconsLAR -4
49ers at RedskinsSF -9.5
Chargers at TitansTEN -1
Ravens at SeahawksSEA -4
Saints at BearsCHI -3
Eagles at CowboysDAL -2.5
Patriots at NY JetsNE -10

In May, Las Vegas sportsbook CG Technology released NFL lines on every 2019 regular-season game. The biggest projected lines in Week 7: Green Bay -8.5 over Oakland. No other spreads were more than 4.5, including New England at the NY Jets on Monday night. But that line opened at 10 at FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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