The Green Bay Packers (3-3) visit the Washington Commanders (2-4) on Sunday, Oct. 23. Kickoff is at 1:00 p.m. EST from FedEx Field and will be broadcast on FOX. The Packers are road favorites and the Commanders are on the moneyline. Packers Commanders odds feature a conservative over/under set at .
In this article we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.
Packers Commanders Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under
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Packers At Commanders Player Props
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Packers At Commanders Betting News & Angles
Packers At Commanders Weather Report
As of Oct. 18, the weather forecast for the Washington D.C. area calls for highs near 70 and clear skies. There shouldn’t be an issue with precipitation or wind– favorable conditions for football.
Packers Vs. Washington Injury Report
Green Bay Injuries
|William Jackson III||CB||Back||Questionable|
Packers Offense Vs. Commanders Defense
|Packers O||Stats (Rank)||Commanders D|
|17.8 (24th)||Points/Gm||22.5 (18th)|
|0.275 (27th)||Points/Play||0.356 (18th)|
|348.2 (15th)||Yards/Gm||353.3 (19th)|
|225.8 (17th)||Pass Yards/Gm||221.5 (15th)|
|122.3 (13th)||Rush Yards/Gm||131.8 (25th)|
|5.4 (17th)||Yards/Play||5.6 (17th)|
|6.2 (23rd)||Yards/Pass||7.0 (24th)|
|4.7 (12th)||Yards/Rush||4.7 (21st)|
|38.4% (19th)||3rd Down %||31.7% (3rd)|
|57.9% (16th)||Red Zone TD %||50.5% (9th)|
|1.3 (14th)||Turnovers||0.5 (32nd)|
|2.5 (21st)||Sacks||3.2 (4th)|
Commanders Offense Vs. Packers Defense
|Commanders O||Stats (Rank)||Packers D|
|17.0 (29th)||Points/Gm||20.5 (15th)|
|0.256 (30th)||Points/Play||0.372 (22nd)|
|320.3 (24th)||Yards/Gm||299.2 (5th)|
|224.8 (18th)||Pass Yards/Gm||164.0 (1st)|
|95.5 (24th)||Rush Yards/Gm||135.2 (27th)|
|4.8 (30th)||Yards/Play||5.4 (14th)|
|5.8 (28th)||Yards/Pass||6.5 (14th)|
|4.0 (24th)||Yards/Rush||4.9 (25th)|
|35.4% (26th)||3rd Down %||26.6% (1st)|
|57.1% (17th)||Red Zone TD %||50.0% (9th)|
|1.3 (14th)||Turnovers||0.7 (29th)|
|3.8 (31st)||Sacks||2.3 (14th)|
Packers At Commanders Betting Insights
Why The Packers Can Cover The Spread
The Commanders will be without QB Carson Wentz, who broke his finger last week against the Bears. Last season, Washington was 7-8 under Taylor Heinicke, who threw 20 TDs and 15 interceptions. While he has a good cast of receivers to throw to, Heinicke should have plenty of production, but a higher rate of turnovers than the offense under Wentz.
The Packers get this offense in the transition to Heinicke, which can work in their favor. Green Bay hasn’t forced many turnovers this season, but that number could be bolstered. Last year against the Green Bay defense (which has turned over some), Heinicke only threw one TD and Washington lost 24-10.
Green Bay can cover this spread if the Washington offense struggles to transition to Heinicke and if the Packers defense forces turnovers.
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Why The Commanders Can Cover The Spread
This Green Bay Packers team isn’t very good, bottom line. Aaron Rodgers is struggling severely without a go-to receiver, though Allen Lazard is playing well since returning from injury. Offensively, they’re posting some of their worst numbers in years while the defense isn’t forcing turnovers or putting clamps down on opposing run games.
They’re also on a real slide, losing back-to-back games to the Giants and Jets. The Packers have a worse average scoring margin (-2.7) than the Texans and Falcons on the season.
As a home underdog greater than a field goal, Washington makes for an enticing bet. In terms of offensive EPA and success rate, there’s not been a major difference between last year under Heinicke and this year under Wentz.
Reasons To Bet The Over
This isn’t the most exciting over to bet to consider. The hope is that it gets bet down low enough, but that’s a tough ask considering it’s already below 42 points. This is one of the lowest scoring NFL seasons in recent memory and the 24th- and 29th-scoring offenses don’t instill a ton of confidence in the over hitting.
The hope might be that Heinicke slings the ball downfield and Rodgers has to counter with downfield passes.
Reasons To Bet The Under
As mentioned, neither of these offenses have found the end zone all that often this year. Should Heinicke and Rodgers get into a downfield passing match, the Commanders may not see the success they hope. Green Bay is fifth in the NFL in passing yards allowed, although that sample size includes the Bears, an injured Buccaneers team, the Patriots, and Jets.
Both defenses fall somewhere around average in the NFL. Bad offenses and good enough defenses point to a likely under.
Packers At Commanders Props: Matchups To Watch For
Washington WRs Vs. Packers Corners: Terry McLaurin has been the go-to receiver for Washington since coming to town, but he’s been complemented– and at times overshadowed– by rookie Jahan Dotson. McLaurin is a bigger, throw-it-up receiver while Dotson is a speedy possession receiver who makes a living running great routes.
They have their hands full this week between the Packers’ group of talented corners: Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, and Rasul Douglas. The trio is the biggest reason why teams have been unable to throw the ball effectively against Green Bay. Stokes’ speed is a good complement for Dotson (or new downfield threat Dyami Brown) while Douglas and Alexander are more experienced handling McLaurin.
In two career games against Green Bay, McLaurin has two TDs on 19 targets.
Commanders Pass Rush Vs. Packers OL: Rodgers is the seventh-most pressured QB on the season so far. Though he’s without Davante Adams, Rodgers has notoriously one of the quickest processors and releases in the NFL. That’s a concerning mark for a player who spent the fourth-lowest time in the pocket a season ago (2.4 seconds). The Commanders have recorded the fourth-most sacks per game on the year behind a nasty defensive line. Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne have combined for seven sacks through six games while Montez Sweat has three of his own.
This is likely going to be a tough offensive watch for Packers and Commanders fans. Green Bay has been able to put the lid on opposing passing offenses and their trio of corners match up really well with Washington’s receivers. On the flip side, the Commanders are going to get pressure on Rodgers all afternoon long; when Rodgers is pressured often, the offense falls apart.
Therefore, I’m going to be leaning betting under points as long as the number stays above 40. This is a low mark, but likely not low enough for the pair of offenses running out there on Sunday.
Best of luck betting Packers Commanders odds.