The Recency Report: NFL Week 6 Market Moves And Week 7 Lookahead Lines

Written By FairwayJay on October 16, 2020
lookahead lines NFL Week 7

The Lines is here to provide you additional sports betting resources and information you can bet on. That includes advance lookahead lines for the following week’s NFL games along with some of the weekly market moves, storylines and betting situations to assist you in your pursuit of profit.

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NFL Week 6 market movement

Increased scoring is one of the stories of the season so far, as NFL games have averaged a combined 51.4 points per game through the first five weeks – the most scoring in the Super Bowl era (post-1966). The past two seasons saw scoring averages of 45.6 and 46.6 points per game. Since Week 1, when the league averaged 47.4 points per game, scoring has surged to an average of 53.3, 52.2, 52.4 and 51.8 points per game over the past four weeks.

Week 6 posted totals at FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks average 49.9 points, and there are eight games with an Over/Under of 50 points or more. The early total moves upward include the Eagles vs. Ravens from 46.5 to 48, Niners vs. Rams from 50.5 to 52, and the Buccaneers vs. Packers from 53 to 55.5. There are also some downward moves, too, including the Vikings vs. Falcons from 56.5 to 54.5.

“We notice the betting trends and make adjustments, from 1-2 points or whatever the market will bear,” DraftKings Sportsbook Director of Operations Johnny Avello told TheLines.

Chiefs vs. Bills has the highest posted total of the week at 57.5 as bookmakers adjust to the increased scoring in the NFL. The Chiefs and Bills are two of the top teams in this week’s power rankings.

Some other notable Week 6 market moves and storylines include:

  • Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The key game on the Sunday slate is an AFC North division duel. The Steelers (4-0) lead the division but are just a half game in front of the Browns (4-1) and Ravens (4-1). The line is holding steady at Steelers -3.5. One of the intriguing match-ups is Browns RB Kareem Hunt vs. the Steelers AFC-best rush defense, which is allowing just 64 yards per game and 3.3 yards per rush. The Browns run defense is also stout, allowing 87 rushing yards per game to rank No. 4 in the NFL.
  • Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco: The total on this NFC West contest is up from 49.5 to 52 and the line has dropped from Rams -3.5 to -3. The lookahead line was 49ers -3 so this is the largest line move of the week from last week’s advance lines. The Rams (4-1) are playing consistently well on both sides of the ball and rank first in rush offense DVOA and fourth in team offense DVOA. Quarterback Jared Goff leads the league in yards per pass attempt (9.0) while ranking last in air yards per attempt with heavy play-action (49%) on drop-back attempts. The 49ers’ struggles hit another low last week beyond the injuries in a 43-17 home loss as 8.5-point favorites. San Francisco (2-3) is in last place in the NFC West with their quarterback situation in flux after Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle sprain) returned last week but was pulled after he threw just 13% of his passes accurately – the worst single-game mark since 2016 according to Pro Football Focus’ ball-charting process.
  • Arizona at Dallas: Andy Dalton gets the ball as the new starting quarterback for Dallas following Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury. There should be opportunities for both teams to balance the offense with the run. The Cardinals allowed 123 rushing yards to the Jets last week and 168 rushing yards to the Panthers the week prior. Dallas’ defense might be worse, as it has given up 404 yards per game – including 155 rushing yards per game. The lookahead line for this Monday night affair was Dallas -3.5 last week, then the Cardinals were 2.5-point favorites on Monday at DraftKings Sportsbook. Now, the line is Arizona -1. This could be a Pick ‘Em or Dallas could even be favored by kickoff on Monday as the Cowboys are the definition of a public team and are at home.

Week 7 lookahead lines and matchups

Half of the Week 7 contests are division games with the Saints (3-2) and Panthers (3-2) meeting in a potential first-place showdown.

The Titans (4-0) and Steelers (4-0) remain undefeated heading into Week 6 and will face one another in a key AFC match-up in Week 7, with Tennessee as an early 1.5-point favorite.

The 49ers (2-3) were a preseason Super Bowl contender and now find themselves an outsider at +4800 odds to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel Sportsbook. San Francisco travels to Foxboro to tackle New England (-5), which is 2-2. Cam Newton returns at quarterback (COVID-19) while the 49ers figure out their quarterback situation. The aforementioned Garoppolo was traded from New England to San Francisco three years ago this month. Garoppolo’s ankle injury and early season struggles show him averaging 1.6 yards per pass play less than he did a season ago when he led San Francisco’s turnaround and surprising run to the Super Bowl.

Teams with a bye in Week 7 include the Ravens, Colts, Dolphins and Vikings.

NFL Week 7 odds

MatchupLookahead lineCurrent line (Oct. 27)
New York Giants at PhiladelphiaEagles -7Eagles -5
Buffalo at New York JetsBills -10.5Bills -9.5
Carolina at New OrleansSaints -7Saints -7
Cleveland at CincinnatiBrowns -5Browns -4.5
Dallas at WashingtonCowboys -4.5Cowboys -1
Detroit at AtlantaFalcons -1Falcons -1
Green Bay at HoustonPackers -3.5Packers -2.5
Pittsburgh at TennesseeTitans -1Titans -1
Tampa Bay vs. Las VegasBuccaneers -2.5Buccaneers -3.5
Jacksonville at LA ChargersChargers -7Chargers -8
Kansas City at DenverChiefs -10Chiefs -7
San Francisco at New England Patriots -5.5Patriots -3
Seattle at ArizonaSeahawks -3.5Seahawks -3.5
Chicago at LA RamsRams -6.5Rams -6.5
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FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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