NFL Week 7 Implied Team Totals: Two Highest Projections Of The Season

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 24, 2021
NFL Week 7 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 7 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 7 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Oct. 19, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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NFL Week 7 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under
Rams33LionsHome-15.550.5
Cardinals33TexansHome-17.547.5
Chiefs31TitansAway-5.556.5
Buccaneers30BearsHome-12.547.5
Packers29Football TeamHome-9.548.5
Ravens27BengalsHome-647.5
Titans26ChiefsHome5.556.5
Raiders26EaglesHome-349
Patriots25JetsHome-742.5
Falcons25DolphinsAway-2.547.5
Saints25SeahawksAway-5.543.5
49ers24ColtsHome-3.544.5
Browns23BroncosHome-342.5
Dolphins23FalconsHome2.547.5
Eagles23RaidersAway349
Panthers23GiantsAway-343.5
Colts2149ersAway3.544.5
Bengals21RavensAway647.5
Football Team20PackersAway9.548.5
Broncos20BrownsAway342.5
Giants20PanthersHome343.5
Seahawks19SaintsHome5.543.5
Lions18RamsAway15.550.5
Bears18DolphinsLondon12.547.5
Jets18PatriotsAway742.5
Texans15CardinalsAway17.547.5

NFL Week 7 Projected Points Analysis

Highest Implied Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Rams3333-114-108
Cardinals3332.5-112-108
Chiefs3131-108-112
Buccaneers3030-110-110
Packers2929.5-116-106

The 34 points scored by the Bengals against the Lions might undersell how badly they routed Detroit. Joe Burrow went for more than 9 YPA and the team had backups in by the middle of the fourth.

Now, after being eviscerated by the 17th-ranked offense per EPA, the Lions’ injury-wrecked defense faces the fourth-ranked offense indoors on the road. It’s hard to see how the Rams don’t have a big day on offense, particularly with their elite receiving options against these awful corners. They consequently have one of the highest implied totals of the year.

Equally high market expectations surround the Cardinals. They get the beleaguered Texans defense. The Colts completely demolished this defense on Sunday, posting 8.1 YPP. A Cards offense that’s third in EPA/play and seventh in DVOA figures to have an easy day on the job.

Perhaps the team with the highest ceiling in terms of scoring this week is the one that usually tops this article: the Kansas City Chiefs. While the Cardinals and Rams could very well find themselves up big and taking the foot off the gas, the Chiefs are much more modest favorites against the Titans. At , this is the highest total on the board.

Furthermore, the Titans just lost a second corner, rookie first-rounder Caleb Farley, from their two-deep to IR. Backup Breon Borders got torched by the Bills and starter Janoris Jenkins didn’t fare much better. This looks like a beautiful spot for a pile of KC points.

Lowest Implied Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Seahawks1919.5-108-112
Lions1817-112-108
Bears1817-110-110
Jets1817-110-110
Texans1514-110-110

The Texans have hit a new low for the 2021 NFL season as far as FanDuel team totals prices go. In Week 4 and Week 5, they barely inched past two TDs in the market, but this time they’ve sunk to a stone 14.

The previous two times, they had one decent game scoring 22 in a loss to New England, but Buffalo shut them out 40-0 the other time. Overall, the team has averaged a putrid 8.5 points in Davis Mills’ starts, and the Cardinals’ pass rush won’t be forgiving.

Another offense that’s been at the bottom of the barrel all year has been the New York Jets. EPA has them as the worst offense by leaps and bounds and DVOA rates their passing offense similarly, with nobody in shouting distance. The Patriots have already held them to 6 points in a previous meeting, and Zach Wilson looked completely unable to push the ball downfield against the Falcons in London.

The Seahawks are an interesting case this week. The Steelers completely shut them down in the first half but the Hawks had a ton of success in the second by pounding the rock. That seems unlikely to work against the Saints’ second-ranked run defense per DVOA. But then again is putting the ball in Geno Smith’s hands any better?

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

Baltimore has had one of the tougher offenses to figure out so far. They scored 34 on the Chargers but a lot of that came due to short fields as they had just 4.8 YPP. Their vaunted rushing attack hasn’t been quite as powerful this season but Lamar Jackson has had some massive games tossing the rock.

The Bengals have been really strong up front, tied for first in adjusted line yards and fourth in stuff rate. Can and will the Ravens air it out to make it to their team total of 27?

Does the market respect the Raiders offense again? They fell into a two-game funk where Derek Carr stopped going deep but they got back their vertical game against Denver as Henry Ruggs III got loose for deep strikes multiple times.

According to Sharp Football Stats, Philly has been second-best in the league preventing big passing plays, so it’s strength on strength there.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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