NFL Week 7 Betting Preview: Chicago Bears at New England Patriots

Written By Eli Hershkovich on October 24, 2022 - Last Updated on October 25, 2022
Patriots Bears Odds

The Chicago Bears visit the New England Patriots at 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday, Oct. 24. This primetime game, which wraps up NFL Week 7 odds, showcases the Patriots as spread favorites and on the moneyline. The total is set at .

In this post, we’ll dig into everything you need to know before placing a bet on Thursday Night Football odds, including matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds. Click on any of the Patriots – Bears odds in this preview to bet now.

Bears at Patriots: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the odds table above, click the dropdown menu and select the type of bet you wish to make. 

Betting on the spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A “plus” sign in front of the spread is the underdog, and a “minus” sign is the favorite. The Patriots need to win by nine points or more if you bet on them against the spread, as they’re priced as an eight-point favorite at most shops.

Conversely, a spread bet on the Bears would need Chicago to lose by a touchdown or less. That wager would also cash if Matt Eberflus’ team wins outright.

The total is the number of combined points that the two teams will score. Bettors can choose to bet “over” or “under” on how many total points will be scored in the game.

Bears at Patriots: Player Props

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. 

Bears at Patriots: Betting News

As of Monday afternoon, New England has manufactured 73% of the spread handle and 63% of the spread bets, respectively. This data comes from BetMGM Sportsbook, which is trading the Patriots at . Additional updates can be found below.

Bears at Patriots: Weather Report

The weather forecast for Foxborough on Monday is dry (overcast clouds) and calm (2 mph winds), with a high temperature of 52 degrees.

Bears at Patriots: Injury Report

New England Injuries

Jalen MillsCBIllnessQuestionable
Shaun WadeCBIllnessQuestionable
Jonathan JonesCBAnkleQuestionable
Lawrence GuyDLShoulderQuestionable
Cody DavisSSKneeOut
Nelson AgholorWRHamstringQuestionable
Kendrick BourneWRToeQuestionable
Christian BarmoreDLKneeQuestionable
Josh UcheLBHamstringQuestionable
Mac JonesQBAnkleQuestionable
Anfernee JenningsLBCalfQuestionable
Isaiah WynnOLShoulderQuestionable
Michael OnwenuOLAnkleQuestionable

Chicago Injuries

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New England Offense vs. Chicago Defense

Patriots OffenseStats (Rank)Bears Defense
23.5 (11)Points/Gm19.7 (11)
0.4 (3)Points/Play0.3 (4)
354.7 (13)Yards/Gm341.7 (16)
223.3 (19)Pass Yards/Gm178.7 (3)
131.3 (10)Rush Yards/Gm163.0 (29)
5.9 (6)Yards/Play5.4 (13)
7.7 (3)Yards/Pass6.5 (11)
4.4 (13)Yards/Rush4.8 (24)
40.6% (14)3rd Down %46.2% (30)
45.0% (29)Red Zone %60.0% (22)
11 (29)Turnovers8 (12)
11 (9)Sacks11 (23)

Chicago Offense vs. New England Defense

Bears OffenseStats (Rank)Patriots Defense
15.5 (31)Points/Gm18.8 (7)
0.3 (16)Points/Play0.3 (4)
293.7 (28)Yards/Gm337.8 (13)
122.8 (32)Pass Yards/Gm218.8 (14)
170.8 (2)Rush Yards/Gm119.0 (17)
5.3 (18)Yards/Play5.4 (13)
6.4 (18)Yards/Pass6.3 (8)
5.2 (6)Yards/Rush4.7 (21)
35.6% (24)3rd Down %40.7% (20)
46.7% (28)Red Zone %55.6% (17)
10 (27)Turnovers12 (3)
23 (31)Sacks17 (7)

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Bears at Patriots: Betting Insights

Why Patriots Can Cover The Spread

Even if you don’t agree with Bill Belichick’s decision to turn back to Mac Jones (ankle) under center, the Patriots should have their way on the ground.

Not only are the Bears allowing the league’s sixth-highest Rushing Success Rate (SR), but they’re yielding the ninth-highest Rushing EPA as well. For context, a play is successful if teams produce:

  • 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
  • 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
  • 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down

Essentially, Matt Eberflus’ unit is struggling to limit opposing rushing attacks. Well, New England boasts one of the most efficient ground attacks via Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris. If the Patriots deliver a positive game script, good luck to Justin Fields & Co.

Fields has performed inconsistently throughout a small sample size, but his passer rating is 20.4 points lower against man-to-man coverage than versus zone looks. Despite the notion that New England would shift to a zone defense without a true shutdown corner, it’s continued to employ Fields’ kryptonite.

On top of that, Belichick’s bunch has surprised with its overall performance, surrendering the fourth-lowest Dropback EPA across the NFL.

Why Bears Can Cover The Spread

Luckily for Chicago, New England’s defense also struggles to slow down the run, as its Rushing EPA ranks just one spot higher. But the Bears haven’t showcased nearly as much success in that regard, especially when they’re trailing.

Related: Super Bowl 57 Odds

Reasons To Bet The Over

This total is priced correctly and hasn’t seen much movement after opening at 39.5. Unless you’re a contrarian bettor who doesn’t examine anything but the number itself, which I’d advise against, there isn’t anything that screams, “Bet the over!”

Reasons To Bet The Under

Considering the rationale above, this game is set up to go this direction. If you’re one who looks into handle percentage versus ticket count, roughly 64% of the money and 62% of the bets, respectively, are on the under. However, I’m going to attack this market with a live betting approach if there are points early on.

Final Thoughts

I already included the Patriots in a Week 7 wong teaser. If you haven’t done so, consider pairing New England with a teaser leg you like in Week 8.

Despite New England having an advantage on both sides of the ball, I typically don’t bet a spread over the key number of a touchdown.

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