Eli’s NFL Week 7 Best Bets: Will 49ers Get Revenge In Super Bowl Rematch Vs. Chiefs?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Week 7 Best Bets

As the odds for NFL Week 7 near kick-off, I’ll handicap point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals while searching for the best NFL promos across the sports betting industry. The Chiefs vs. 49ers matchup, a rematch of Super Bowl 58, is at the top of the list compared to my projections. Below are my best bets for NFL Week 7. I’ll add more picks to this column if I bet any others.

Click any of the odds below to place a bet. These sportsbook prices are the best available in your state.

NFL week 7 best bets: Bengals at browns under 41.5 (41 or fewer points)

Good or bad, I’m always transparent with my picks, which you can view in our free sports betting Discord. This year has been my toughest, going 11-19-3 (-6.63 units). I’ve had a profitable run over the last two seasons at TheLines.com, finishing 101-65-2 (+33.06 units). I will continue underlining the importance of bankroll management amid bumpy stretches while avoiding the urge to chase your losses.

At the least, I hope you’ve found this article helpful when determining your wagers. Without further adieu, let’s get started.

Burrow’s Kryptonite Reemerges

Over the last three years, Joe Burrow’s arch nemesis has not been Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Josh Allen.

It is Cleveland’s defense. Burrow owns a -0.36 EPA per dropback against the Browns since the 2021 campaign. For reference, 0.03 is the league-average quarterback production compared to expectations during this span.

Although Myles Garrett and Co. haven’t shown much consistency, this group is as healthy as it’s been since the opener. Their starting safeties, Grant Delpit (concussion) and Juan Thornhill (calf), are set to return. The same applies to linebacker Jordan Hicks (elbow/triceps), whose sturdy presence limits opposing rushing attacks from reaching the second level.

Jim Schwartz’s unit has also employed the league’s highest Cover 1 rate. That should remain the case versus Burrow, tallying just a 54.3% completion percentage against man coverage this season.

Conversely, Deshaun Watson grades as the NFL’s worst quarterback in almost every category. Watson’s skill-position talent is more concerning after the Browns dealt the underwhelming Amari Cooper, who ranks below league average in separation win rate versus man and zone coverage.

Unless Nick Chubb magically regains his explosiveness in his first game back from knee surgery, I anticipate that Cleveland’s offensive woes will continue.

Injury Report

Player Pos Position Injury Status Snaps/g Snaps Per Game Comment
Cincinnati Bengals
There Aren’t Any Injured Players for This Team Currently
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson QB Ankle Out 59.3 Watson has suffered a torn Achilles and could miss the entire 2025-26 season.

Final Thoughts: NFL Week 7 Best Bets

NFL week 7 best bets: 49ers moneyline (to win straight up)

Will Mahomes’ Success Continue?

Some bettors will blindly circle the underdog in this spot. On the surface, it’s hard to argue with them.

Patrick Mahomes touts a 25-8-1 against-the-spread (76%) mark in games as an underdog or favorite of a field goal or less. In fact, two of those wins came in the Super Bowl against San Francisco.

To boot, the Chiefs are 5-0 straight up and 3-1-1 ATS in 2024. However, all but one of their wins came by a single possession.

Kansas City is still elite, yet its passing attack isn’t nearly as productive as Mahomes’ NFL MVP odds would indicate. The loss of Rashee Rice (knee surgery) accentuates that. Against a 49ers secondary boasting the third-best pass defense DVOA, these concerns should finally surface on the scoreboard.

Meanwhile, Brock Purdy has excelled under pressure this season. As was the case in February, Steve Spagnolo’s defense will apply plenty of it. But without cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, the Chiefs’ man coverage is more vulnerable in these situations than last season. In recent matchups, Kansas City’s pass rush has benefited from facing banged-up offensive lines, yet their injury luck will finally end at Levi’s Stadium.

There’s no doubting how well Andy Reid’s teams have performed after the bye week, going 21-4 SU. Then again, the 49ers had a mini-bye themselves, making it a moot point. In a huge revenge spot, I’ll side with the home favorite, rated second in my NFL power rankings and ahead of the Chiefs.

Final Thoughts: NFL Week 7 Best Bets

Photo by Associated Press/Lindsey Wasson

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