Teaser bets remain a popular option with many NFL bettors. But, you must use caution when selecting which teams you’ll tease, as you can’t win long-term without a sound strategy. At TheLines, we’ll go over each week’s NFL slate to see which teams fit best in teasers. Today, we look at options for NFL Week 6 teasers.
The Best NFL Week 6 Teasers
The last several weeks, teaser options galore have dotted the board. Not so this week, which takes us all the way back to Week 2, the last time few if any plays could be highlighted here. Only one clear-cut play can be circled on the current board, so we’ll look at that one and then a few others that could come into play depending on line moves.
Vikings At Panthers (+1.5)
A big issue for Minnesota appears to be style of play. Their passing offense has been quite solid, ranking 11th in DVOA, but they seem reluctant to lean into it. Instead they continue to pound the rock as Coach Mike Zimmer prefers. While they’ve actually passed it pretty often in 2021, that appears to be more a function of game flow than anything else. When they’ve built leads, they have a clear preference for running more.
Last year, for instance, only five teams ran more often than Minnesota.
The result is it’s tough for the Vikings to build big leads and cover numbers like -7.5. Look no further than last week’s game against the Lions. The team refused to aggressively attack a wounded Lions secondary. Instead, they plunged Alexander Mattison into the line 25 times, producing 113 yards with 48 of that coming on one long play.
The Lions hung around and easily covered the +9.5/+10 closing numbers, nearly winning the game.
To be sure, Carolina’s offense has sputtered of late. Sam Darnold played very poorly against the Eagles.
But the defense figures to keep them within a score in a game with a total.
Other Potential NFL Week 6 Teasers
Of course, the issue with having one nice teaser bet is that doesn’t do you much good if you don’t have something else with which to pair it. A few speculative spots exist this week, but they won’t fall into the teaser zone unless line movement takes them there.
Chiefs (-7.5) At Football Team
The matchup seems pretty favorable to KC on paper. Washington has been one of the heavier blitzing teams, and that hasn’t been a route to success against Patrick Mahomes.
While the Chiefs defense has struggled to a staggering degree, ranking dead last in both EPA/play and DVOA, Taylor Heinicke may offer some reprieve. He has looked pretty overmatched at times, committing several awful turnovers among his five INTs for the season. He can’t really afford any mistakes as the Chiefs offense should put some points on the board per usual.
And yet, many bettors may find themselves reluctant to trust the Chiefs, a team that has met market expectations just once all season. Far better to simply need them to win, they may think.
Just keep in mind that with a high-performance offense like this and a massive total like , many of the worlds in which the Chiefs win also result in a cover.
The Chiefs have played a vicious schedule and likely aren’t nearly as bad as they’ve looked in the early weeks. There’s some juice on some of the -7s out in the markets tracked by TheLines, and if this goes to -7.5 the Chiefs are in play.
Cardinals (+2.5) At Browns
Bettors could find the Cardinals +2.5 early in the week, but the market has settled at +3 across the board at sportsbook tracked by TheLines. A closer look at the vig on these numbers reveals some -115 prices and the like, though, so this may bounce to +2.5 and back throughout the week.
The total here — — is on the border of what we want to see when looking for spots to tease teams through key numbers.
It may seem like a layup to get the 5-0 at more than a TD against the Browns, but keep in mind the Cardinals have been a pretty high-variance team so far. They’ve had multiple results — wins over the Rams and Titans — that wound up 20 points off the market. That makes intuitive sense given QB Kyler Murray’s penchant for the spectacular but also some head-scratching turnovers.
As for how these teams match up, the Cards have been rather poor against the run (sixth-worst in EPA/play allowed) and must contend with a Cleveland offense that has run the ball better than anyone so far in 2021.
Rising rookie LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah also makes for an intriguing foil for Murray. Can he and fellow speed demon Myles Garrett keep Murray’s mad scrambles in check?
Chargers (+2.5) At Ravens
They rank dead last in yards per attempt allowed at 5.6 and they advanced stats don’t like them much better with both EPA/play and DVOA ranking them worse than everyone besides the Chiefs.
It’s clear from their defensive strategy LA is inviting teams to run on them. It nearly backfired on Sunday as the Browns rolled up 230 yards, a number rarely seen these days in the NFL.
Like the previous game as well, this one’s at +3 across the board, and the juice is even higher with as big as -118 out there. So, don’t be surprised to see +2.5 soon. But the total is even higher here at , so you have to really love the Chargers and really have an appetite for variance to include this one in your NFL Week 6 teasers.