The Recency Report: NFL Week 5 Market Moves And Week 6 Look-Ahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on October 5, 2019 - Last Updated on October 6, 2019

Most bettors got buried in Week 4 following the most popular favorites. FanDuel Sportsbook reported that the most-bet favorites were the Chiefs, Patriots, Texans, Ravens, Cowboys, Packers, Colts, Giants and Seahawks. Only New York and Seattle covered, while the sportsbooks cleaned up with favorites going just 5-10 ATS overall for Week 4.

The Rams closed -9 with some Buccaneers money showing on the underdog, but Los Angeles became the biggest favorite to lose outright this season. Kansas City and New England escaped with road wins at Detroit and Buffalo to remain undefeated at 4-0, but spread bettors lost big with the Chiefs (-7) taking more than 90% of the spread bets against the Lions in their last second non-covering win, 34-30.

TheLines turns to FanDuel Sportsbook for opening look-ahead lines for next week’s NFL games. Here’s a look at some of the storylines and betting situations that have impacted (or could impact) the Week 5 NFL card:

  • The Broncos (0-4) remain winless following their second home loss of the season on a final-play field goal. This time it was to Jacksonville, 26-24, after Denver had taken the lead in the final 90 seconds. The loss was costly with Denver losing one of its best players to a season-ending injury. Linebacker Bradley Chubb suffered a partially torn ACL. Denver is a 6.5-point underdog at Los Angeles in Week 5. The Chargers will have RB Melvin Gordon back in action following his holdout.
  • The Raiders play the Bears in London this week, but will be without suspended LB Vontae Burfict for the rest of the season following another vicious helmet to helmet targeting hit. The Bears are a 5-point favorite but will play without QB Mitch Trubisky, who suffered a shoulder injury in last week’s 16-6 win over the Vikings.
  • Bills QB Josh Allen had three turnovers and was knocked out of the game last week against New England following a heavy helmet hit. Allen remains in concussion protocol with his status still up in the air for the Week 5 contest at Tennessee. The Titans are up to a 3-point favorite, and the total is the lowest of the week at 38.5 after the Bills defense dominated the Patriots offense in a 16-10 defeat.

The Week 5 betting guide highlights the games with plenty of betting analysis for you to consume. In this article we take a look at the market movement on this week’s games along with the reasons why the lines have shifted to help you with your capping.

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How to use look-ahead lines

We’ll be providing the NFL advance lines from FanDuel Sportsbook each week to allow you a sneak peek at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from a big bookmaker provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.

The tendency for many bettors is to over-react to previous weeks scores and results. The look-ahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.

Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential overreaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams, including NFL power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion and whether they are a believer in some teams or not in others. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations, stats or angles they want to apply as the season progresses.

Week 5 market movement

Injuries and changes in personnel continue to affect NFL teams and the betting market. There were eight starting quarterbacks in Week 4 that began the season as backups, and two more starters suffered injuries last week. Chicago QB Mitch Trubisky suffered a left shoulder injury and also a partial labrum tear, and he’ll miss the Week 5 contest in London against the Raiders with Chase Daniel the new starting quarterback following his solid performance in the Bears Week 4 win over the Vikings, 16-6. Chicago is taking more than 70% of the bets against Oakland in London, but the line is holding steady with the Bears a five-point favorite.

The betting lines can move quickly, and the oddsmakers and sportsbooks are scrambling with so many injuries and the money consistently supporting the Patriots and Chiefs. Yet FanDuel Sportsbook is one of the few bookmakers to have New England a 14.-5 point road favorite at Washington with most oddsmakers showing -15 or -15.5. The Chiefs are taking nearly 60% of the bets as an 11-point home favorite over the Colts.

The biggest line adjustment in Week 5 from the look-ahead line is on the Eagles, who are a 13.5-point home favorite over the NY Jets, who travel to Philadelphia off their bye week. Quarterback Sam Darnold (mono) has been out for a few weeks but did practice Wednesday. However, the Jets coaches won’t make an announcement on his playing status until game day Sunday with his status likely affecting the line on game day.

The Titans (-3) line is holding steady against the Bills, but watch for an announcement on Bills QB Josh Allen (concussion), and also rookie RB Devin Singletary (hamstring), who missed last week’s game. Buffalo is attracting significant money line interest from bettors perhaps anticipating Allen to clear concussion protocol and play.

GameOpenCurrent
LA Rams at Seattle (Thur)LAR -1.5SEA -1.5
Arizona at CincinnatiCIN -4CIN -3
Atlanta at HoustonHOU -4HOU -5
Baltimore at PittsburghBAL -3.5BAL -3.5
Buffalo at TennesseeTEN -1.5TEN -3
Chicago vs Oakland (London)CHI -6CHI -5
Jacksonville at Carolina CAR -3.5CAR -3.5
Minnesota at NY GiantsMIN -5.5MIN -5.5
New England at WashingtonNE -13NE -14.5
NY Jets at PhiladelphiaPHI -7.5PHI -14
Green Bay at DallasOFFDAL -3.5
Tampa Bay at New OrleansNO -6NO -3
Denver at LA ChargersLAC -6.5LAC -6.5
Indianapolis at Kansas CityKC -8.5KC -11
Cleveland at San Francisco SF -4SF -3.5

Analysis:

  • Tampa Bay at New Orleans: A game that may have been an afterthought a few weeks ago is key game in the NFC South with the Saints (3-1) a game in front of the Buccaneers (2-2) following Tampa Bay’s upset at Los Angeles last week. The Bucs scored 55 points in victory and now have a chance to move into first place with a win over the Saints, who play back-to-back home games after their no-touchdown victory over Dallas 12-10 last Sunday night. The look ahead line was New Orleans -6 but the Saints are now a 3-point favorite.
  • Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The Ravens (-3.5) and Steelers renew their rivalry in Pittsburgh, but market indicators suggest the game will close Baltimore -3 at more sportsbooks. The Ravens lead the league in time of possession (35.03) on offense, yet the defense is allowing a league-worst 7.0 yards per play and at least 340 passing yards in their last three games. The Ravens pass defense is allowing a league-high 14.4 yards per completion. The Steelers offense ranks No. 30 in time of possession at 26.17 per game, but Pittsburgh likely open the playbook more this week for QB Mason Rudolph and the total is on the rise.

Week 6 look-ahead lines

Week 6 includes the Giants and Patriots on Thursday with New England continuing as a dominant favorite at -14 on the look-ahead line. Some key division games include Carolina vs. Tampa Bay in London. The late afternoon game that will draw the most betting action is San Francisco at the LA Rams with potentially first place on the line. Detroit at Green Bay is the early slate duel that will draw great interest in the toughest division.

GameFanDuel Spread
Giants at PatriotsNE -14
Panthers at BucsCAR -1
Redskins at DolphinsWAS -5.5
Eagles at VikingsMIN -2.5
Texans at ChiefsKC -8
Saints at JaguarsJAX -1.5
Seahawks at BrownsCLE -3
Bengals at RavensBAL -9
49ers at RamsLAR -4.5
Falcons at CardinalsATL -3
Cowboys at JetsDAL -6.5
Titans at BroncosDEN -1.5
Steelers at ChargersLAC -6
Lions at PackersGB -5.5

In May, Las Vegas sportsbook CG Technology released NFL lines on every 2019 regular-season game. The biggest projected lines in Week 6 were New England -11 over the NY Giants and the LA Rams -8.5 over San Francisco. Three other bigger favorites of note included Green Bay -7.5 over Detroit, Baltimore -7 over Cincinnati and Kansas City -7 over Houston.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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