NFL Week 6 Betting Preview: Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears

Written By Eli Hershkovich on October 13, 2022
Bears Commanders Odds

The Washington Commanders visit the Chicago Bears at 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 13. This primetime matchup between NFC teams, which also kicks off NFL Week 6 odds, showcases the Commanders as spread favorites and on the moneyline. Bears – Commanders odds also feature a total set at .

In this post, we’ll break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on Thursday Night Football odds, including team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds. Click on any of the Bears – Commanders odds in this preview to bet now.

Commanders at Bears: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the odds table above, click the dropdown menu and select the type of bet you wish to make. 

Betting on the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A “plus” sign in front of the spread is the underdog, and a “minus” sign is the favorite. The Commanders need to win by two points or more if you bet on them, as they’re priced as a one-point favorite at most shops. Conversely, a spread bet on the Bears would need Chicago to earn straight-up victory or tie in overtime.

The total is the number of combined points that the two teams will score. Bettors can choose to bet “over” or “under” on how many total points will be scored in the game.

Commanders at Bears: Player Props

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. 

Commanders at Bears: Betting News

As of Thursday, the Bears have manufactured 72% of the spread handle and 63% of the tickets, respectively. This data comes from BetMGM Sportsbook, which is trading the Commanders at . Additional updates can be found below.

Commanders at Bears: Weather Report

Dry conditions (overcast clouds) and 12 mph winds are expected at Soldier Field on Thursday, with a high temperature of 50 degrees.

Commanders at Bears: Injury Report

Chicago Injuries

Dane CruikshankDBHamstringQuestionable
Matthew AdamsLBCalfOut
Alex LeatherwoodFBUndisclosedQuestionable

Washington Injuries

Logan ThomasTECalfOut
Jonathan WilliamsRBKneeOut
William Jackson IIICBBackOut
Samuel CosmiOTThumbOut
Jahan DotsonWRHamstringOut
Percy ButlerFBQuadOut
David MayoLBHamstringQuestionable
Carson WentzQBShoulderQuestionable
Dyami BrownWRGroinQuestionable
Christian HolmesCBHamstringQuestionable

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Chicago Offense vs. Washington Defense

Bears OffenseStats (Rank)Commanders Defense
17.2 (27)Points/Gm25.6 (25)
0.3 (15)Points/Play0.4 (16)
274.0 (31)Yards/Gm345.6 (17)
116.6 (32)Pass Yards/Gm235.0 (19)
157.4 (5)Rush Yards/Gm110.6 (14)
5.2 (21)Yards/Play5.6 (18)
6.6 (15)Yards/Pass7.2 (25)
4.9 (11)Yards/Rush4.2 (10)
35.0% (28)3rd Down %30.4% (5)
58.3% (13)Red Zone %57.1% (15)
8 (22)Turnovers1 (32)
18 (28)Sacks14 (7)

Washington Offense vs. Chicago Defense

Commanders OffenseStats (Rank)Bears Defense
18.0 (26)Points/Gm21.2 (15)
0.3 (15)Points/Play0.3 (4)
341.6 (19)Yards/Gm367.2 (22)
252.6 (10)Pass Yards/Gm197.2 (9)
89.0 (28)Rush Yards/Gm170.0 (31)
5.0 (24)Yards/Play5.6 (18)
6.0 (26)Yards/Pass6.9 (21)
3.9 (24)Yards/Rush4.9 (24)
38.2% (20)3rd Down %50.7% (32)
58.3% (13)Red Zone %61.1% (23)
8 (22)Turnovers8 (8)
20 (30)Sacks8 (25)

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Commanders at Bears: Betting Insights

Why Bears Can Cover The Spread

Justin Fields looked the part against Ed Donatell’s zone defense in Week 5, and the second-year quarterback is up against a Washington secondary that’s yielding the league’s seventh-highest Dropback EPA. The Commanders will also be short-handed in the secondary, as cornerback William Jackson III (back) was already ruled out.

Jackson was benched in the second half of their loss to the Titans, but the lack of depth is still a blow — given how their defensive backs have performed overall.

Although a two-game stretch is certainly a small sample size, Fields owns the 11th-highest EPA + CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) Composite during that span. If the Bears manage to establish their ground game, he should continue to refine his numbers after his early-season struggles.

With that being said, Fields has taken a sack on a league-high 14.0% of his dropbacks. Not only is Ron Rivera’s defense a blitz-oriented unit, but it’s also notched the fifth-highest pressure rate (27.9%).

Why Commanders Can Cover The Spread

Outside of Derrick Henry’s performance last week, Washington’s run defense has settled in above the league average. Overall, it’s yielded the fourth-lowest Rushing Success Rate (SR) and fifth-fewest EPA per carry, respectively.

For context, a play is successful if teams produce:

  • 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
  • 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
  • 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down

Therefore, Chicago’s offensive line could be in for a tougher test than some bettors may anticipate. On the other side of the ball, Matt Eberflus’ unit is only one spot ahead of Washington in regards to Dropback EPA. Even with Bears cornerback Jalen Johnson off the injury report after missing their loss at the Vikings, Carson Wentz & Co. have exploited a pair of weaker secondaries thus far (Titans and Jaguars).

Nevertheless, Wentz will be without both rookie wideout Jahan Dotson (hamstring) and tight end Logan Thomas (calf) for a second consecutive game. Fellow receiver Dyami Brown (groin) is listed as questionable, but he appears to be on the right side of that status. Brown notched a 105-yard, two-score showing last week.

Mind you, Wentz is dealing with a biceps tendon strain near his throwing shoulder. He suffered the injury on Sunday, yet the Commanders still managed to outgain the Titans by 3.81 Yards Per Pass Attempt (YPA).

From a head coaching perspective, this game represents Matt Eberflus’ first time preparing his team on a short week. Rookie coaches are 8-19 ATS (29.6%) on Thursday Night Football since 2015.

Related: Super Bowl 57 Odds

Reasons To Bet The Over

Should you be inclined to believe that the total is underinflated for Bears – Commanders odds, both of these passing attacks are set up to have success on paper. That’s especially the case if the Commanders are positioned with a negative game script.

Reasons To Bet The Under

If you’re into “trends,” the under is 7-1 in games with totals of 38 or fewer points since 2020, per BetMGM’s John Ewing. The Browns and Steelers helped ruin that once undefeated mark in Week 3. The total is currently sitting at .

What goes into a trend like that? Given that the total opened at 40.5, the betting market doesn’t buy into either of these offenses — despite the spotty defensive play on each side. Both QBs have delivered a below-average CPOE, which is a metric that isolates a signal caller’s execution from the opposition.

Final Thoughts

Yes, we’re betting on Washington for a fourth straight game. Good luck with betting Bears – Commanders odds if you decide to do so.

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