NFL Week 6 Betting Preview: New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns

Written By Jeffrey Schreiber on October 14, 2022 - Last Updated on October 15, 2022
patriots browns odds

The New England Patriots visit the Cleveland Browns at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 16. NFL Week 6 odds shows the Browns as spread favorites and  on the moneyline. The point total in Patriots Browns odds is set at .

In this article, we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds. Click on any Patriots Browns odds in this post to bet now.

PATRIOTS VS BROWNS ODDS: SPREAD, MONEYLINE, OVER/UNDER

When using the Patriots Browns odds table above, click the dropdown menu and select the type of bet you wish to make. 

Wagering on the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A “plus” sign in front of the spread is the underdog, and a “minus” sign is the favorite. The Browns would need at least a four-point win if you bet on Cleveland to cover the point spread (-3). A spread bet on the Patriots would win if New England wins the game or loses by two points or fewer. When there is a flat number like this one (-3) a push comes into play.

Betting the moneyline is simply betting on which particular team will win a game.

The total is the number of combined points the two teams will score. Bettors can choose to bet the over or under on how many total points will be scored in the game.

PATRIOTS VS. BROWNS PLAYER PROPS

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks.  This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. 

PATRIOTS VS. BROWNS BETTING NEWS

As of Wednesday, the spread for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook is Browns -3. 54% of the money is on Cleveland to cover the spread. Additional updates can be found below.

PATRIOTS VS. BROWNS WEATHER REPORT

The weather isn’t expected to have an impact on this matchup, as the temperature is expected to settle in at 54 degrees by kickoff. You should be wary of allowing the potential weather to impact your handicap. Games with lots of rain and snow usually drive down totals but doesn’t always mean it will go Under. Sportsbooks obviously adjust their lines based on weather, so it’s up to the bettor to decide if the book adjusted the line enough. 

Browns Vs. Patriots Injury Report

Cleveland Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatus
Joel BitonioOGElbowQuestionable
Taven BryanDTHamstringQuestionable
Myles GarrettDEArmQuestionable
Joe HaegOTConcussionQuestionable
Ronnie HarrisonFBIllnessProbable
Perrion WinfreyDTAnkleProbable
Denzel WardCBConcussionDoubtful
Jadeveon ClowneyDELegDoubtful
Deion JonesILBShoulderQuestionable

New England Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatus
David AndrewsCBackQuestionable
Jakobi MeyersWRKneeQuestionable
Jalen MillsCBHamstringQuestionable
Raekwon McMillanLBThumbQuestionable
Josh UcheLBHamstringQuestionable
Jonnu SmithTEAnkleQuestionable
Jonathan JonesCBAnkleQuestionable
Nelson AgholorWRHamstringQuestionable
Lawrence GuyFBShoulderQuestionable
Damien HarrisRBHamstringQuestionable
Mac JonesQBAnkleQuestionable
DaMarcus MitchellFBConcussionQuestionable

Browns Offense Vs. Patriots Defense

Browns OffenseStats (Rank)Patriots Defense
26.6 (6)Points/Gm19.6 (12)
0.4 (5)Points/Play0.3 (4)
396.4 (4)Yards/Gm339.8 (15)
204.0 (24)Pass Yards/Gm211.0 (11)
192.4 (1)Rush Yards/Gm128.8 (22)
5.7 (12)Yards/Play5.5 (14)
6.3 (21)Yards/Pass6.4 (10)
5.3 (5)Yards/Rush4.8 (22)
44.3% (5)3rd Down %43.9% (23)
60.0% (11)Red Zone %56.2% (13)
4 (4)Turnovers8 (8)
5 (1)Sacks13 (8)

Patriots Offense Vs. Browns Defense

Patriots OffenseStats (Rank)Browns Defense
20.6 (19)Points/Gm25.0 (23)
0.3 (15)Points/Play0.4 (16)
345.8 (17)Yards/Gm353.8 (19)
207.8 (21)Pass Yards/Gm215.6 (14)
138.0 (9)Rush Yards/Gm138.2 (28)
5.8 (9)Yards/Play6.0 (25)
7.5 (5)Yards/Pass6.9 (21)
4.6 (12)Yards/Rush5.3 (30)
38.2% (20)3rd Down %35.2% (12)
40.0% (28)Red Zone %57.9% (19)
10 (29)Turnovers4 (26)
9 (10)Sacks9 (23)

PATRIOTS VS BROWNS BETTING INSIGHTS

Why Patriots Can Cover The Spread

Sunday’s game could come down to Cleveland’s lack of ability to stop the run. The Browns are giving up 5.3 yards per carry, which is the third-most in the NFL. The Patriots will surely give running back Rhamondre Stevenson plenty of oppurtunities against this Browns defense, especially after he ran for a career-high 161 yards against the Lions last week. The Patriots are 7-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games versus the Browns, and they are 17-3 straight up in their last 20 matchups with AFC North opponents. The Browns also are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. New England has won four consecutive games and eight of the last nine versus the Browns.

Why Browns Can Cover The Spread

The Browns have been putting up above average offensive statistics under quarterback Jacoby Brissett thus far, ranking fourth-best in yards per game (396.4). Cleveland has been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency as well, ranking fifth-best in the NFL by putting up a 44.3% third-down conversion rate. If the Browns can put the clamps down on their run-defense they should dominate the game. Forcing whoever starts for New England to drop-back more than usual, will ultimately lead to sacks and turnover opportunities.

Reasons To Bet The Over

Over at Draftkings Sportbook, the over/under for this game is 43.5. It is surprising to see 83% of the money is currently on the over, for the reasons you will see below of “reasons to bet the under”. With that being said, four of the Browns first five games thus far have combined for point totals of 58,46,61,50 which far exceeds this games total.

Reasons To Bet The Under

The Patriots’ Week 5 game produced only 120 combined plays, and New England shut out a Detroit team that was leading the league in scoring. They rank ninth in defense DVOA, and unless the Browns push them, the Patriots are unlikely to come out of their offensive shell. Patriots’ games have averaged the second-fewest combined plays (118.2).

Low play volume is not only due to a conservative offensive approach, but because opponents also hand off against their 28th-graded run defense DVOA at the seventh-highest rate during neutral situations. Assuming this contest stays relatively close (Cleveland is a field-goal favorite at home) it’s hard to project a different game plan by New England. Although it remains to be seen who starts for the Patriots on Sunday, backup QB Baily Zappe’s 7.1-yard average depth of target ranks 25th over the last two weeks. 

The Browns also run a heavy ground-based attack. Cleveland is coming off of a loss in which they averaged more yards on the ground (6.9) than yards per pass attempt (6.8). Cleveland ranks 20th in pace, 23rd in average play-clock seconds remaining. The Browns also encourage teams to run on them by featuring a run defense that allows the third-most yards per carry and is ranked dead last by both DVOA and PFF grading. 

Patriots vs. Browns props: Matchups to watch

Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Browns Run Defense: Damien Harris hurt his hamstring in the first half and didn’t return last Week, allowing Stevenson to post monstrous numbers as the only remaining RB in a blowout victory. Stevenson finished with 25 carries for 161 yards to go along with two catches for 16 yards through the air. With Harris and Ty Montgomery still sidelined, Stevenson could have a golden opportunity in front of him. Stevenson would clearly be the alpha RB for a run-heavy team. The matchup for Stevenson could not get any juicier as he faces a Browns team ranked dead last in Rush Defense DVOA. Cleveland also grades out as a bottom-three rush defense and tackling team, according to PFF. Finally, the Browns are surrendering the third-most yards per rush in the NFL.

Nick Chubb vs. Patriots Run Defense: Whats interesting about this game as a whole, is both teams strength of running the ball well facing each teams inability to stop the run. Chubb encounters a Patriots team grading out as a bottom-five unit in Rush Defense DVOA. New England is also allowing the ninth-most yards per rush in 2022. We know how dominant the Browns rushing attack is, grading out as the No. 1 Rushing Offense DVOA. PFF also grades Cleveland as the best rushing offense in the NFL.

FINAL THOUGHTS

This game will showcase two teams with the exact same strength and weakness. In these situations I would lean on the home team. I would suggest staying away from this key number of three, and lay the juice with Browns Moneyline (-148). Best of luck betting Patriots Browns odds.

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Jeffrey Schreiber Avatar
Written by
Jeffrey Schreiber

Jeffrey Schreiber is a sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media. Jeff is recent college graduate with a background in finance and analytics. His goal is to provide readers with data and information behind the "why" to make a bet. His most memorable betting moment came during the divisional round of the 2022 NFL playoffs when he turned $37 in same-game parlay bets into $25,000.

View all posts by Jeffrey Schreiber