NFL Week 6 Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills At Kansas City Chiefs

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 14, 2022
Bills Chiefs odds

The Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 16. Primary markets for the game show the Chiefs as spread favorites and on the moneyline. Bills Chiefs odds feature a total set at .

In this article, we break down everything you need to know before placing a bet on the game, including team matchups, key metrics, weather and the best available NFL Week 6 odds. Click on the odds anywhere in this post to bet now.

Bills At Chiefs Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

When using the odds table, click the dropdown menu and select the type of bet you wish to make. 

Betting the point spread is when you wager on how many points a team will win or lose by. A plus sign in front of the spread denotes the underdog, and a minus sign denotes the favorite.

In this case, the Bills would have to win by at least three points if you bet them to cover the point spread (-2.5). A spread bet on the Chiefs would win if they win the game or lose by fewer than two. 

Betting the moneyline is simply betting on which particular team will win a game.

The betting total is the number of combined points the two teams will score. Bettors can choose to bet the over or under on how many total points will be scored in the game. 

For more betting guides, click the green NFL Game Previews button at the top of this post.

Editor’s Note

Bills At Chiefs Player Props

In the props tool search bar, type in a team or player and hit enter. You’ll see the various proposition bets offered by leading online sportsbooks. 

This is a valuable tool that allows bettors to compare odds and stats when considering a prop bet. Unlike bigger markets like moneylines and spreads that often reach a consensus number, shopping for prop bet lines can often reveal sizable differences in the numbers.

Bills At Chiefs Betting News & Angles

Use this rolling, updating list of news bites about each team to help your handicapping for Bills – Chiefs odds.

Bills Vs. Chiefs Injury Report

Buffalo Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatus
Jordan PoyerFBRibsQuestionable
Jordan PhillipsDTHamstringQuestionable
Taiwan JonesRBKneeQuestionable
Cam LewisCBForearmQuestionable
Mitch MorseCElbowProbable
DaQuan JonesDTHipProbable
Kaiir ElamCBFootProbable
Tre’Davious WhiteCBAclQuestionable
Jake KumerowWRAnkleQuestionable
Tremaine EdmundsLBHamstringQuestionable
Dawson KnoxTEFootQuestionable
Christian BenfordCBHandQuestionable

Kansas City Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatus
Michael DannaDECalfQuestionable
Bryan CookFBConcussionDoubtful
Rashad FentonCBHamstringDoubtful
Jerrion EalyWRSuspensionOut
Trent McDuffieCBHamstringQuestionable
Harrison ButkerKAnkleQuestionable
Tershawn WhartonDTAclOut
Chris LammonsCBHipQuestionable
Frank ClarkDEIllnessQuestionable

Bills Offense Vs. Chiefs Defense

Bills OffenseStats (Rank)Chiefs Defense
30.4 (2)Points/Gm25.0 (23)
0.5 (1)Points/Play0.4 (16)
440.4 (1)Yards/Gm339.2 (14)
324.0 (1)Pass Yards/Gm255.6 (24)
116.4 (14)Rush Yards/Gm83.6 (3)
6.7 (1)Yards/Play5.3 (11)
7.9 (2)Yards/Pass6.2 (8)
5.1 (7)Yards/Rush4.1 (7)
55.7% (1)3rd Down %38.5% (15)
55.6% (21)Red Zone %81.2% (31)
9 (26)Turnovers4 (26)
8 (6)Sacks13 (8)

Chiefs Offense Vs. Bills Defense

Chiefs OffenseStats (Rank)Bills Defense
31.8 (1)Points/Gm12.2 (1)
0.5 (1)Points/Play0.2 (1)
381.4 (6)Yards/Gm260.4 (2)
267.2 (4)Pass Yards/Gm182.6 (4)
114.2 (18)Rush Yards/Gm77.8 (2)
5.8 (9)Yards/Play4.4 (2)
7.0 (9)Yards/Pass5.5 (6)
4.5 (14)Yards/Rush3.5 (3)
52.5% (2)3rd Down %39.3% (16)
78.3% (3)Red Zone %50.0% (9)
4 (4)Turnovers11 (1)
8 (6)Sacks16 (6)

Bills At Chiefs Betting Insights

Why The Bills Can Cover The Spread

When these two teams met last year, the Bills overall outplayed the Chiefs. While the Chiefs were the slightly better team in the playoff meeting, the Bills crushed them in a regular season matchup, 38-20. And both games took place in KC. By most estimations, the Bills got stronger in the offseason while the Chiefs roster took a hit with the loss of WR Tyreek Hill. With a similar offense but a stronger defense, the Bills should prevail here.

Why The Chiefs Can Cover The Spread

The Chiefs are getting points at home. This has yet to happen with Patrick Mahomes at QB, and that’s for good reason. He’s been the best QB on the planet over the last several years and nobody has come close aside from Allen in a smaller sample. Mahomes has been at his efficient but creative best so far this year. Crucially, he has protected the ball a bit better than Allen, and one turnover could be the difference here with both offenses expected to move the rock. The Chiefs should also have a coaching edge and a rabid crowd behind them.

Reasons To Bet The Over

While this total is massive, especially in a year with severely muted scoring, there are no two QBs (aside from maybe Geno Smith) whom you can more confidently count on to light up the scoreboard. Sure, the Bills have a dominant defense on paper, but they have only faced two decent offenses so far. Unless the wind kicks up considerably, expect two QBs who dominate at all levels to at least threaten 30 points.

Reasons To Bet The Under

The Kansas City offensive line has not performed very well this season. Mahomes has been pressured on at least 30% of his dropbacks in every game this season, which is more than you’d like to see from a team that invested as much as the Chiefs have in this unit. The Raiders in particular frequently beat the KC tackles without blitzing, and the Bills bring a similarly strong unit to the table there. If they can get to Mahomes and limit the Chiefs to a low 20s score, that’s probably enough to keep this under.

Bills At Chiefs Matchups To Watch For

Josh Allen Vs. Chiefs Tackling

Last year’s playoff game ended in a Chiefs victory, but it probably should have come in much easier fashion than needing a miracle 13-second drive to tie before an overtime win. The Chiefs had Josh Allen in their grasp several times for game-changing sacks, including a couple of fourth-down plays, only to allow him to escape. That problem persisted against Joe Burrow. Wrapping up has once again been an issue in 2022, with PFF grading the Chiefs’ tackling 26th. Look for Allen to have a big day rushing if the Chiefs don’t shore that up.

Bills Pass Rush Vs. Chiefs Tackles

Orlando Brown has not done much to demonstrate he deserves the contract he’s holding out for, and on the right side, Andrew Wylie has frequently gotten his butt kicked for the Chiefs. He’s been a backup the last few years for a reason. This is the clear weak point of the Chiefs offense (aside from RB), and the Bills look well-positioned to attack with Von Miller and Greg Rousseau. Can Patrick Mahomes’ movement magic make up for some iffy blocking from his tackles?

Chiefs Pass Catchers Vs. Bills Coverage

The Bills’ coverage unit looked like a weakness coming into the season without Tre’Davious White but has been surprisingly solid thus far. That said, they have not faced a particularly dangerous slate of opposing passing games aside from that of the Dolphins and maybe the Ravens. And the unit remains banged up with White still out, S Jordan Poyer questionable, and fellow ace S Micah Hyde out for the year. This is a massively tougher assignment than anything they’ve yet seen.

Final thoughts

This is the most exciting matchup of the season on paper and probably affords us a playoff preview between the two strongest teams in the NFL. The Chiefs didn’t look like they could slow the Bills down at all on paper last year, but they did fine work until a couple of coverage busts allowed huge TDs. Unfortunately, tackling and deep coverage look like potential issues again Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes looked in top form after the Bills shut him down in the regular season. He’s been awesome so far in 2022. Expect both offenses to feast, and a handful of big plays to decide the game, since down-to-down, both QBs should have their ways. The only potential plot twist could come in the form of high winds with 13 mph gusts in the early forecast. Keep an eye on the weather, as that would seem to favor the Chiefs, whose offensive line has done great work blocking so far.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

View all posts by Mo Nuwwarah