NFL Week 6 Implied Team Totals: Bills, Chiefs In Another Barnburner?

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 12, 2022
Week 6 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 6 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 6 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Oct. 12, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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NFL Week 6 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under
Bills28ChiefsAway-2.554
Cardinals27SeahawksAway-2.550.5
Chiefs26BillsHome2.554
Rams26PanthersHome-10.541
Buccaneers26SteelersAway-844
Packers26JetsHome-745
Ravens25GiantsAway-545
Vikings25DolphinsAway-3.545.5
Chargers25BroncosHome-545.5
49ers25FalconsAway-5.544.5
Eagles24CowboysHome-642.5
Seahawks24CardinalsHome2.550.5
Bengals23SaintsAway-243
Browns23PatriotsHome-2.543.5
Colts22JaguarsHome-242
Patriots21BrownsAway2.543.5
Saints21BengalsHome243
Dolphins21VikingsHome3.545.5
Jaguars20ColtsAway242
Broncos20ChargersAway5.545.5
Commanders20BearsAway-138
Giants20RavensHome545
Jets19PackersAway745
Falcons1949ersHome5.544.5
Bears19CommandersHome138
Cowboys18EaglesAway642.5
Steelers18BuccaneersHome844
Panthers15RamsAway10.541

Highest NFL Week 6 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Bills2827.5-115-105
Cardinals2726.5-120+100
Chiefs2626.5-110-110
Buccaneers2626.5-115-105
Packers2626.5-120+100
Rams2625.5-120+100

Buffalo Bills

The game of the regular season is certainly expected to see plenty of scoring. That’s no surprise with the two most potent offenses and two most potent quarterbacks in terms of EPA/play. It isn’t particularly close, either.

Last season’s playoff game obviously got a bit crazy late with 28 points in the fourth quarter en route to 78 total. However, things were relatively in check before that with a 23-21 score going into the fourth. Both defenses managed to get some stops.

These two teams are very familiar with each other. While the Bills largely crushed the Chiefs defense last year with scores of 38 and 36, they had less success in 2020 with a combined 41 in two meetings.

After a pretty good start to the season including limiting the powerful Chargers, the Chiefs defense has found the going more rough of late. Josh Jacobs plowed through the run defense for about 150 yards, but the Bills are generally not known for their rushing prowess.

LA Rams

Is this the week the Rams offense finally gets off the schneid?

The beginning of the season has certainly been ugly. By PFF’s grades, only the Dolphins have done a worse job protecting their passer. By the raw numbers, only two teams have allowed a higher sack rate. The eye test was especially stark, especially against the 49ers, when Matt Stafford never seemed to get the chance to look more than five yards downfield.

At the same time, look at the defenses the Rams have faced. The Bills, 49ers and Cowboys all boast premium pass rushes. Those all just so happen to be the three teams to hand the Rams Ls.

The Panthers are cut from different cloth. While their defense is certainly a respectable one, they win with talent on the back end more so than pressure. They rank in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate. As long as the Rams take care of Brian Burns, they should look like a decent offense again.

Lowest NFL Week 6 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Panthers1514.5+100-120
Steelers1816.5-125+105
Cowboys1817.5-105-115
Bears1919.5-105-115
Falcons1919.5-110-110
Jets1918.5-115-105

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers were having a difficult enough time scoring with their starting QB. They ranked 24th in scoring, and considering they’ve gotten several defensive TDs, that likely overstates things.

Now, PJ Walker takes over. Walker has had a rough go of it as a pro with 8 INTs against just 2 TDs tossed. He certainly does not rank among the better backups in the league. He did manage to lead the team to victories in his only two starts the past two years, but they came against a pathetic Lions team that the defense shut out and a fellow backup in Colt McCoy for the Cardinals.

It seems incredibly unlikely he’ll get much going against the Rams defense, so we’re seeing the lowest team total line of the season for good reason.

Dallas Cowboys

While Cooper Rush has rightfully earned plenty of plaudits for his play thus far, the market eyes this week’s game against the Eagles with considerable skepticism.

Perhaps rightfully so given what the Cowboys did in terms of their passing offense last week. They managed just 76 net yards through the air. The defense and special teams handed them multiple easy scores. Rush has had things very easy in general so far, playing a soft schedule and really only needing to make some plays in the win over the Bengals.

Things are about to get considerably more difficult heading into a hostile environment to play the Eagles. Philly ranks sixth in EPA/play allowed and has been especially tough against opposing passing games. They are below the fold against the run, however. Whether the Dallas ground game softens things up for Rush will likely determine the Cowboys’ success level on offense.

Other Notable Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalDraftKings Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Seahawks2424.5-105-115
Colts2221.5-105-115

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts once again embarrassed themselves on offense, albeit against a tough Broncos unit on the road. They’re now the only team in the league averaging fewer than 14 points per game (13.8).

DVOA in particular hates this offense. They rank dead last in offense DVOA, but amazingly, it’s due in equal parts to the running game and passing game, each of which ranks last individually. It’s tough to be the worst in the league in all facets but the Colts have found a way.

Poor offensive line play has really affected Matt Ryan, and another test awaits here. The Jaguars pressure the passer at the sixth-highest rate. Jonathan Taylor may return this week, which would take some pressure off.

Ryan managed a QBR of 8.1 as he fired 3 INTs when these teams played in Week 2. The Jags pitched a 24-0 shutout.

Seattle Seahawks

Right along with the Lions, the Seahawks have become an overs machine since the first couple of weeks. They’ve played to scores of 50, 93 (!) and 71 as Geno Smith has come fully into his own. Incredibly, the Seahawks rank first in offense DVOA.

The Seahawks have definitely shown a stark split in their ability to attack the top defenses compared to the dregs they’ve faced of late. The Broncos and especially the 49ers completely dominated them. But the Cardinals don’t resemble these units at all, ranking 24th in EPA/play allowed.

Smith and his receiving corps should get cooking against a secondary that ranks last in PFF’s coverage grades.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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