NFL Week 6 Implied Team Totals: Chiefs And Texans Bookend Expected Points Yet Again

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on October 17, 2021
NFL Week 6 implied team totals

Each week during the NFL season, TheLines will compile a list of implied team totals. In other words, NFL Week 6 implied team totals are how many points each team is expected to score this week, based on simple math with the spread and over/under.

Readers can make use of these team totals in a variety of ways for NFL Week 6 and beyond. Those ways include handicapping props, making fantasy decisions, etc.

All lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Oct. 11, rounded to the nearest whole number.

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NFL Week 6 Implied Team Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalOpponentLocationSpreadOver/Under
Chiefs31Football TeamAway-6.555.5
Buccaneers29EaglesAway-751.5
Rams29GiantsAway-10.547.5
Bills29TitansAway-4.553.5
Ravens27ChargersHome-3.550.5
Browns27CardinalsHome-2.551.5
Cowboys26PatriotsAway-448.5
Colts26TexansHome-1042.5
Cardinals25BrownsAway2.551.5
Packers25BearsAway-4.545
Titans25BillsHome4.553.5
Bengals25LionsAway-347.5
Football Team25ChiefsHome6.555.5
Dolphins25JaguarsLondon-3.545.5
Chargers24RavensAway3.550.5
Panthers24VikingsHome-1.546.5
Steelers24SeahawksHome-4.542.5
Broncos24RaidersHome-344.5
Vikings23PanthersAway1.546.5
Patriots22CowboysHome448.5
Eagles22BuccaneersHome751.5
Lions22BengalsHome347.5
Raiders21BroncosAway344.5
Jaguars21DolphinsLondon3.545.5
Bears20PackersHome4.545
Seahawks19SteelersAway4.542.5
Giants19RamsHome10.547.5
Texans16ColtsAway1042.5

NFL Week 6 Projected Points Analysis

Highest Week 6 Implied Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Chiefs3131-106-116
Buccaneers2930-114-108
Rams2929.5-116-106
Bills2930.5-116-106
Ravens2727-118-104
Browns2726-112-108

Despite showing some of their first signs of offensive weakness Week 5 against Buffalo, the Chiefs remain atop this board yet again.

Washington has produced a solid pass rush, but they’ve done plenty of blitzing to get there. Their secondary has gotten torched repeatedly, with Jameis Winston and the low-powered Saints passing game the latest to have success. Only two teams have a worst EPA/play mark, and Patrick Mahomes has been notably stronger against the blitz.

Either Washington must get pressure with its front four — or it must cover much better. Or Tyreek Hill might enjoy another field day like he did against Philadelphia — if he’s healthy, that is.

One matchup sure to attract a ton of interest is that of the Chargers heading East to play at Baltimore. What makes this so fascinating — in addition to simply two good teams facing off — is that the Chargers’ style of defense has appeared to invite teams to run the ball. It nearly blew up in their faces in Week 5 as the Browns ripped off numerous long gains en route to 230 yards rushing. Only the Chargers’ own offense saved them.

Of course, the Ravens might be the last team you’d want to lure into running the ball. Despite something of a down season by the offensive line, they remain top five in yards per rush and sit seventh in rush DVOA.

Add in two of the most aggressive coaches in the league and you have a recipe for points here.

Speaking of the Browns, they get the latest chance to crack the armor of the better-than-expected Cardinals D. That unit looked strong again this weekend, putting the claps on Trey Lance and the Niners. The health of Baker Mayfield — playing through a shoulder injury — looms large.

Lowest Week 6 Implied Totals

TeamImplied Team TotalFanDuel Team TotalOver PriceUnder Price
Raiders2120.5-118-104
Jaguars2120.5-110-110
Bears2020-116-106
Seahawks1918.5-114-108
Giants1919.5-110-110
Texans1616.5-110-110

Yet again, the Texans sport the lowest team total on the board, and by no small amount. In Week 5, they easily soared over their number, reaching 22 points early in the third. But, before you go sprinting to the window to take their team total over — whenever the number gets posted — consider a few things.

First, they Texans got a 67-yard TD bomb from a QB in Davis Mills whose previous long plays had been 16, 30 and 35 yards. Additionally, another TD came on a 37-yard flea flicker. Those sorts of things probably aren’t predictive or repeatable.

They got shut out for the rest of the game after the aforementioned touchdown. Their next four drives (before an attempted lateral-fest) produced 62 yards on 18 plays.

The Seahawks and Giants both figure to start their backups at QB this week.

Geno Smith actually played pretty well in trying to lead a comeback against a tough Rams defense on Thursday. However, he gets a very uninviting matchup of the Steelers defense on the road. Expectations should be low for a QB with a monstrous 8.1% career sack rate and more INTs (37) than TDs (30).

Mike Glennon found less success helming the Giants. He’s further hindered by multiple injuries to both offensive linemen and weapons. Few offenses find themselves in worse shape than this group. If a good time to face the Rams even exists, this one certainly doesn’t qualify.

What has happened to the Raiders offense? After ranking eighth in dropback EPA/play the first three weeks — all wins — Las Vegas has crumbled all the way to 30th in the ensuing two losses. It doesn’t look like a product of schedule either as they faced some solid defenses early.

Derek Carr has reverted to his checkdown-happy ways. They must get back to attacking downfield. It’s anyone’s guess how the Raiders perform going forward, but the market doesn’t like their chances in Mile High.

Other Notable NFL Week 6 Implied Team Totals

On the other side of the QB injury spectrum, we have the Dolphins. Reports about Tua Tagovailoa seemed optimistic, as the team expects him to return to practice this week. They sorely need it, and the market reflects that optimism as they have their highest implied team total since the former top draft pick went down.

The Jags and their bottom-three pass defense according to EPA/play present an inviting spot to get the ship righted. Still, 25 looks rather high for an offense that only cracked that once all season.

One perhaps surprising omission from the highest totals: the Dallas Cowboys. Powered by their rejuvenated offensive line and QB, the Cowboys have lit up scoreboards basically all season. But, the market expects them to run into resistance on the road against New England.

While the Pats performed notably well against the Bucs in a high-profile primetime game, this is an interesting spot as the advanced stats remain unimpressed with this group. Both EPA and DVOA have them in the bottom half of the league. Whether you believe in these numbers could dictate whether you find value in a team total play here.

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

View all posts by Mo Nuwwarah