Eli’s NFL Week 6 Best Bets: Will Saints Upset Buccaneers With Spencer Rattler?
As the odds for NFL Week 6 near kick-off, I’ll assess price discovery and handicap point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals while sifting through the best NFL promos across the sports betting industry. The 3-2 Buccaneers at the 2-3 Saints matchup stands out compared to my projections. Below are my best bets for NFL Week 6. I’ll add more picks to this article when they are in my account.
Click any of the odds below to place a bet. These sportsbook prices are the best available in your state.
NFL Week 6 Best Bets: saints +3.5 (to lose by three or less or win)
Some readers are unfamiliar with the term above, price discovery. This activity ensues when bets are made on the opening spread or total. Early action is used to adjust the number. Sportsbooks may follow the same script as operators considered “market makers.” They shifted their pricing because competitors repositioned their own. Liability tolerance (or lack thereof) could be enough to reshape the odds at other sportsbooks.
The spread has done a complete 180, with the Saints drifting from -2.5 on the look-ahead line to 3.5-point home underdogs after Derek Carr suffered an oblique injury on Monday night. While the Bucs have been a market darling with Baker Mayfield, this game presents a buy-low, sell-high opportunity.
Too Much Movement
Like the Packers vs. Colts game in Week 2, I’m fading the market because of an injury under center. Rookie Spencer Rattler makes his first professional start in place of Carr, yet my model has this line near Tampa Bay -1.5.
Despite Carr’s red-hot start, he ranks below league average in the EPA+CPOE composite over the last three weeks. He’s also generated the fifth-lowest passing success rate during this span, ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts, Jacoby Brissett, and Deshaun Watson. If you buy into his decline, which history supports, the market has overreacted to his absence.
Conversely, an outlier surrounds the Buccaneers’ struggling run defense, as stud nose tackle Vita Vea missed two contests before returning in Week 5. However, given the market adjustment, Rattler’s unknown variance and the bevy of skill position threats provide a dose of intrigue.
Baker Mayfield, Rattler’s counterpart, has continued to thrive in Tampa Bay’s pass-heavy offense. Beyond the Bucs’ blowout loss to Denver, every defense they’ve faced settles outside the top 10 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). New Orleans showcases the seventh-best unit in that department, and their pass coverage — led by shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore — is a significant factor.
Additionally, the Saints have compiled the ninth-most pressures, an area of concern for Mayfield and Tampa Bay’s offensive line. His 18th-ranked EPA in these situations, juxtaposed with a top-10 rating with a clean pocket, is telling.
Team injuries
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Final Thoughts: NFL Week 6 Best Bets
After three straight losses, I’ll bite the bullet with New Orleans in a prime situational spot — above the key number of a field goal. Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord to receive instant alerts whenever I place a bet. Users can access the #roles server to enroll in these push notifications.
NFL week 6 best bets: ravens/commanders u52.5 (combined 52 or fewer points)
Both teams have seen the total go over in four of their five games, yet I expect some regression in the Battle of the Beltway.
As much as Jayden Daniels’ odds have risen in the MVP and Offensive Rookie of the Year betting markets, the Commanders’ offensive success rate was in the 32nd percentile in Week 5. Taking on the Ravens’ third-rated run defense, according to EPA per carry allowed, Washington’s efficiency should remain on the decline if forced to become one-dimensional.
Moreover, I anticipate that Baltimore’s approach will look quite different from its shootout victory in Cincinnati, where Lamar Jackson and Co. coped with a negative game script throughout the second half. The Ravens’ offense ranks No. 30 in PROE (Pass Rate Over Expected). It will aim to keep Daniels on the sideline by running through four-time Pro Bowler Derrick Henry.
Granted, the Commanders have one of the NFL’s worst secondaries. Still, their run-stop win rate is surprisingly above average.
I’ll plug my nose with two offenses that operate more methodically in a neutral game state. Assuming turnovers don’t play a big role, this game is positioned to go under the total.
Final Thoughts: NFL Week 6 Best Bets
If you read this breakdown closer to kick-off, I like this bet down to 51 — a frequent key number for totals. Good luck with the rest of your best bets for NFL Week 6!
Bonus NFL week 6 best bets: jaguars +1.5 (to lose by one or win)
While the Bears’ defense has performed at a top-five level thus far, it’s benefited from playing a combination of below-average offenses and injury-ravaged teams overall. Over the last two weeks, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have seemingly hit their stride, and they should have tight end Evan Engram (hamstring) back in the lineup after missing the last four games.
To boot, Chicago’s secondary is banged up, with cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (calf) and safety Jaquon Brisker (concussion) likely to miss Sunday’s affair.
Despite Jacksonville’s travel disadvantage because of Hurricane Milton, this group has plenty of experience making the trek to London. I have the Jaguars power-rated a smidge higher than the Bears, so there’s value in betting them on a neutral field.