Eli’s NFL Week 6 Best Bets: Will Saints Upset Buccaneers With Spencer Rattler?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Week 6 Best Bets

As the odds for NFL Week 6 near kick-off, I’ll assess price discovery and handicap point spreads, moneyline odds, and totals while sifting through the best NFL promos across the sports betting industry. The 3-2 Buccaneers at the 2-3 Saints matchup stands out compared to my projections. Below are my best bets for NFL Week 6. I’ll add more picks to this article when they are in my account.

Click any of the odds below to place a bet. These sportsbook prices are the best available in your state.

NFL Week 6 Best Bets: saints +3.5 (to lose by three or less or win)

Some readers are unfamiliar with the term above, price discovery. This activity ensues when bets are made on the opening spread or total. Early action is used to adjust the number. Sportsbooks may follow the same script as operators considered “market makers.” They shifted their pricing because competitors repositioned their own. Liability tolerance (or lack thereof) could be enough to reshape the odds at other sportsbooks.

The spread has done a complete 180, with the Saints drifting from -2.5 on the look-ahead line to 3.5-point home underdogs after Derek Carr suffered an oblique injury on Monday night. While the Bucs have been a market darling with Baker Mayfield, this game presents a buy-low, sell-high opportunity.

Too Much Movement

Like the Packers vs. Colts game in Week 2, I’m fading the market because of an injury under center. Rookie Spencer Rattler makes his first professional start in place of Carr, yet my model has this line near Tampa Bay -1.5.

Despite Carr’s red-hot start, he ranks below league average in the EPA+CPOE composite over the last three weeks. He’s also generated the fifth-lowest passing success rate during this span, ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts, Jacoby Brissett, and Deshaun Watson. If you buy into his decline, which history supports, the market has overreacted to his absence.

Conversely, an outlier surrounds the Buccaneers’ struggling run defense, as stud nose tackle Vita Vea missed two contests before returning in Week 5. However, given the market adjustment, Rattler’s unknown variance and the bevy of skill position threats provide a dose of intrigue.

Baker Mayfield, Rattler’s counterpart, has continued to thrive in Tampa Bay’s pass-heavy offense. Beyond the Bucs’ blowout loss to Denver, every defense they’ve faced settles outside the top 10 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). New Orleans showcases the seventh-best unit in that department, and their pass coverage — led by shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore — is a significant factor.

Additionally, the Saints have compiled the ninth-most pressures, an area of concern for Mayfield and Tampa Bay’s offensive line. His 18th-ranked EPA in these situations, juxtaposed with a top-10 rating with a clean pocket, is telling.

Team injuries

Last Updated on 11.06.2024
Player Pos Position Injury Status Snaps/g Snaps Per Game Comment
New Orleans Saints
Bub Means WR Ankle Out 22.9 Means is dealing with an ankle injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Camron Peterson DT Undisclosed Out 0 Peterson is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
Cedrick Wilson Jr. WR Shoulder Questionable 36.8 Wilson Jr. did not practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Falcons.
Chris Olave WR Concussion Questionable 39.4 Olave did not practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Falcons.
Erik McCoy OL Groin Questionable 46 The Saints have opened the 21-day practice window for McCoy as they await his return from the injured reserve list.
J.T. Gray DB Back Questionable 27.3 Gray was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Falcons.
Jamaal Williams RB Groin Questionable 19.3 Williams was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Falcons.
John Ridgeway III DT Oblique Questionable 20.1 Ridgeway III was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Falcons.
Justin Herron OT Knee Out 0 Herron is dealing with a knee injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
Kendre Miller RB Hamstring Out 17.5 Miller is dealing with a hamstring injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Hamstring Questionable 29.1 McKinstry did not practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Falcons.
Lucas Patrick OL Calf Questionable 51.8 Patrick did not practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Falcons.
Nephi Sewell LB Undisclosed Questionable 0 The Saints have opened the 21-day practice window for Sewell as they await his return from the physically unable to perform list.
Paulson Adebo CB Femur Out 62.6 Adebo has suffered a broken femur and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He is expected to miss the remainder of the 2024-25 season.
Rashid Shaheed WR Knee Out 55.3 Shaheed his dealing with a knee injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the rest of the 2024-25 NFL season.
Rejzohn Wright CB Undisclosed Out 0 Wright is dealing with an undisclosed injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
Rico Payton CB Back Questionable 18 Payton was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the Falcons.
Ryan Ramczyk OT Knee Out 0 Ramczyk is dealing with a knee injury and has been placed on the physically unable to perform list. He will miss the entire 2024-25 season.
Shane Lemieux OL Ankle Questionable 77 The Saints have opened the 21-day practice window for Lemieux as they await his return from the injured reserve list.
Tanoh Kpassagnon DE Achilles Out 0 Kpassagnon has suffered a torn Achilles and has been placed on the physically unable to perform list. He will miss at least four games.
Will Harris DB Hamstring Questionable 63.6 The Saints have opened the 21-day practice window for Harris as they await his return from the injured reserve list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield QB Toe Questionable 64.9 Mayfield did not practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the 49ers.
Ben Bredeson G Shoulder Questionable 69.9 Bredeson was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the 49ers.
Bryce Hall CB Ankle Out 20 Hall is dealing with an ankle injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Bucky Irving RB Toe Questionable 29.9 Irving was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the 49ers.
Chase Edmonds RB Knee Out 0 Edmonds is dealing with a knee injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
Chris Godwin WR Ankle Out 57.1 Godwin suffered a dislocated ankle and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He is expected to miss the remainder of the 2024-25 season.
Cody Thompson WR Shoulder Out 6 Thompson, a practice squad player, is dealing with a shoulder injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list.
Evan Deckers LS Hamstring Questionable 7.3 The Buccaneers have opened the 21-day practice window for Deckers as they await his return from the injured reserve list.
Greg Gaines DL Calf Questionable 35.7 Gaines was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the 49ers.
J.J. Russell ILB Ribs Questionable 27.8 Russell was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the 49ers.
Jalen McMillan WR Hamstring Questionable 43.8 McMillan did not practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the 49ers.
Jamel Dean CB Hamstring Out 63.2 Dean is dealing with a hamstring injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Jordan Whitehead S Quad Questionable 64.8 Whitehead did not practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the 49ers.
Kameron Johnson WR Ankle Out 15 Johnson is dealing with an ankle injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Markees Watts OLB Quad Out 15.4 Watts is dealing with a quadricep tear and has been placed on injured reserve list. He will miss at least four games.
Mike Evans WR Hamstring Out 43.3 Evans has been ruled out for Week 10 versus the 49ers. He is expected to return in Week 12.
Silas Dzansi OT Knee Out 0 Dzansi is dealing with a knee injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
SirVocea Dennis LB Shoulder Out 39.8 Dennis is dealing with a shoulder injury and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He is expected to miss at least the remainder of the regular season.
Sterling Shepard WR Hamstring/Hip Questionable 37.6 Shepard did not practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the 49ers.
Sua Opeta G Knee Out 0 Opeta suffered a torn ACL and has been placed on the injured reserve list. He will miss the 2024-25 season.
Vita Vea NT Hip Questionable 49.5 Vea was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the 49ers.
William Gholston DL Ribs/Knee Questionable 21.4 Gholston was limited in practice on Thursday heading into Week 10 versus the 49ers.

Final Thoughts: NFL Week 6 Best Bets

After three straight losses, I’ll bite the bullet with New Orleans in a prime situational spot — above the key number of a field goal. Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord to receive instant alerts whenever I place a bet. Users can access the #roles server to enroll in these push notifications.

NFL week 6 best bets: ravens/commanders u52.5 (combined 52 or fewer points)

Both teams have seen the total go over in four of their five games, yet I expect some regression in the Battle of the Beltway.

As much as Jayden Daniels’ odds have risen in the MVP and Offensive Rookie of the Year betting markets, the Commanders’ offensive success rate was in the 32nd percentile in Week 5. Taking on the Ravens’ third-rated run defense, according to EPA per carry allowed, Washington’s efficiency should remain on the decline if forced to become one-dimensional.

Moreover, I anticipate that Baltimore’s approach will look quite different from its shootout victory in Cincinnati, where Lamar Jackson and Co. coped with a negative game script throughout the second half. The Ravens’ offense ranks No. 30 in PROE (Pass Rate Over Expected). It will aim to keep Daniels on the sideline by running through four-time Pro Bowler Derrick Henry.

Granted, the Commanders have one of the NFL’s worst secondaries. Still, their run-stop win rate is surprisingly above average.

I’ll plug my nose with two offenses that operate more methodically in a neutral game state. Assuming turnovers don’t play a big role, this game is positioned to go under the total.

Final Thoughts: NFL Week 6 Best Bets

If you read this breakdown closer to kick-off, I like this bet down to 51 — a frequent key number for totals. Good luck with the rest of your best bets for NFL Week 6!

Bonus NFL week 6 best bets: jaguars +1.5 (to lose by one or win)

While the Bears’ defense has performed at a top-five level thus far, it’s benefited from playing a combination of below-average offenses and injury-ravaged teams overall. Over the last two weeks, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have seemingly hit their stride, and they should have tight end Evan Engram (hamstring) back in the lineup after missing the last four games.

To boot, Chicago’s secondary is banged up, with cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (calf) and safety Jaquon Brisker (concussion) likely to miss Sunday’s affair.

Despite Jacksonville’s travel disadvantage because of Hurricane Milton, this group has plenty of experience making the trek to London. I have the Jaguars power-rated a smidge higher than the Bears, so there’s value in betting them on a neutral field.

Photo by Associated Press/Gene J. Puskar

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