Week 5 NFL Betting: Upset Predictions For Longshot Parlays & Pick ‘Em Pools

Written By Eli Hershkovich on October 4, 2023

Underdogs are always attracting interest on the NFL Week 5 odds board. Determining the most valuable ones at NFL betting sites is a complex process. If you usually throw pizza money on parlays and same game parlays, below are three plus-money teams to remember. This potential three-team parlay isn’t a personal wager on my betting card.

Watch for my best bets column by following TheLines on Twitter. To place a bet at the best sports betting sites, click on any of the following odds. These prices are the best available in your state.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams

Although Philadelphia Eagles odds are off to a 3-1 start against the spread, there are significant concerns. For starters, Jalen Hurts ranks No. 22 among qualified quarterbacks in dropback success rate. For context, a play is deemed successful if it generates at least 50% of the necessary yards for a first down, 70% of the yards to gain on a second down, and 100% of the yards to gain on a third or fourth down. His rating is just slightly higher than the much-maligned Justin Fields.

Moreover, the Eagles slot in at No. 19 in EPA per dropback allowed. Philadelphia cornerbacks Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Josh Jobe have all struggled to limit separation. That wasn’t the case for the Eagles, boasting the top-rated group last season.

Therefore, the defending NFC champs are overvalued in the market. This spread has already dipped from its original position on the look-ahead line (-6). But if Matthew Stafford is healthy enough to play through a hip contusion, Los Angeles’ receivers will benefit from Philly’s vulnerable secondary. The best Rams odds to win outright are .

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals

While Arizona Cardinals odds showcased the lowest figure among preseason NFL win totals, they’ve surprised most — if not all — sports bettors thus far. Jonathan Gannon’s bunch is 3-1 ATS, narrowly failing to cover against the 49ers on Sunday. For the first time in 2023, the betting market has come to the Cardinals’ defense. For context, they were more than touchdown underdogs on the look-ahead line.

Plenty of that movement also revolves around Joe Burrow’s strained right calf. He’s tallied only 4.8 yards per attempt (YPA) — the fewest among qualified QBs. Those who have backed Cincinnati Bengals odds have seen their pass defense regress after losing safeties Jessie Bates and Von Bell. In fact, they rank a hair below the Eagles in dropback EPA allowed.

They display a bottom-10 run defense across a myriad of metrics, too. With their season on the line, will they rebound? If not, dual-threat QB Josh Dobbs and a potent ground attack should take advantage. Remember that first-year offensive coordinator Drew Petzing has successfully installed the zone-blocking scheme from his Browns tenure. Cleveland has frequently shined in the rushing department, and Petzing’s new team has thrived despite lackluster talent along the offensive line.

If you expect the Cardinals to emerge victorious, their moneyline odds are .

Related: Super Bowl odds for the 2023 NFL season

Dallas Cowboys at san francisco 49ers

Per my NFL power ratings, I make these teams almost even on a neutral field. The look-ahead line had San Francisco 49ers odds favored by a field goal, so this modification has generated some value. The Niners are undefeated, consistently forcing below-average competition into a negative game script.

But similar to the prior matchup, Tony Pollard & Co. can negate that by stringing together another efficient rushing performance. To date, San Francisco has let up the fifth-most EPA per carry. Dallas will need a fully healthy offensive line to capitalize, though. Left tackle Tyron Smith (knee) and right guard Zack Martin (bruised quadriceps) aren’t guaranteed to suit up. Hence, I’d wait on the injury report before wagering on Cowboys odds. The best available number for them to win straight up is .

TheLines broke down this tilt even further on the latest episode of “Beat The Closing Number,” one of our NFL betting podcasts, which you can watch below. Subscribe to the audio-only version on Apple or Spotify as well.

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