Four weeks are down and the NFL landscape is beginning to take shape. What players are trending up and which are trending down? The dust is beginning to settle on many teams and players. This article lays out NFL Week 5 trends, including four candidates that are on the move up and four that are on the slide down.
Let’s dive into the NFL Week 5 stock up/stock down report.
NFL Week 5 Trends: Stock Up
Trevon Diggs, CB, Dallas Cowboys
Not many players rocketed up odds boards as quickly as Trevon Diggs has for Defensive Player of the Year. Through four games, Diggs has five interceptions (by far the league lead). Before Week 4, PointsBet had Diggs listed at +6600 to win Defensive Player of the Year and that was after he recorded three picks in three games.
Now, he sits at to win the award after recording two more interceptions against Carolina. Mid-game, PointsBet made the drastic change to +1600 (as of Sunday) and the rest of major US sportsbooks pulled the prop altogether.
Of all the teams, players, and otherwise this week, Diggs made the biggest jump in the market.
It’s difficult exactly where to pinpoint what facet of the game is rising the most for the Arizona Cardinals. So we’ll just throw them in here as a whole. After beating the division-rival Los Angeles Rams on the road to be the last-standing unbeaten team, the Cardinals shot up odds boards.
They jumped into being the favorite to win the NFC West, albeit slightly, at .
Market movement also came in for the Cardinals for their odds to win the NFC () and Super Bowl LVI (). The offense is second in overall EPA and their defense stands sixth in DVOA.
Their win over the Rams– whom many had as their top-ranked NFL team last week– solidified the Cardinals as real contenders.
Zach Wilson, QB, New York Jets
The rookie still leads the NFL in interceptions thrown through four weeks (eight), but his play in the Jets’ first win is a far cry from the atrocity that was their Week 2 loss to the Patriots. Wilson showed off the arm and improvisational skills that earned him the second overall spot in the NFL Draft. Two specific throws to Corey Davis near the end of the game and a touchdown to Jamison Crowder got the attention of social media.
Wilson went into the season as one of the favorites to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award (+1000 preseason). However, that number quickly plummeted to as far as +3000 after an 0-3 start and a five-interception outing in Week 2. The market’s regained confidence in Wilson, boosting his odds back to and likely improving should he continue to play confidently.
D.J. Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers
Davante Adams. Keenan Allen. Both names that are all-too familiar with being at the top of the charts when it comes to receiving targets. But D.J. Moore? That’s turning heads. Moore’s coming off back-to-back 100-yard outings including a two-touchdown game (and a foot away from a third) against the Cowboys.
With Sam Darnold playing better than he’s ever played with the Panthers, Moore is now a very real top-tier NFL wide receiver. His yards per reception is severely down from years past, but that’s a testament to Matt Rhule and Joe Brady’s commitment to getting the football in Moore’s hands any way possible. His odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards are up to a modest .
NFL Week 5 Trends: Stock Down
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Red Zone offense
Is this too niche? Maybe– but the Buccaneers’ red zone production is struggling as long as Rob Gronkowski is out. He ranks second in the NFL in red zone touchdowns (four) and 100% of his red zone completions have been for touchdowns. Against the Patriots in Week 4, Tom Brady completed just one of seven passes inside the 20.
Tampa Bay is 19th in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage (61.1%), helped along by their 1-for-3 showing last week. When it comes to keeping up with the highest-scoring teams in the NFC like the Packers, Cardinals, and Rams; you can’t settle for field goals.
While this might not be enough to move the needle in futures odds today (the Bucs are to win the NFC), this kind of struggling Red Zone production could be an x-factor in a high-stakes game down the line.
Washington Football Team defense
Chase Young was the runaway Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2020 and the team was a sack factory. Washington’s front four was one of the most feared units in the NFL a season ago. But this year, the wheels have fallen off. They’re 25th in sacks (seven) and middle of the road in QB hit rate (9.1%). Overall, this defense is allowing opposing quarterbacks to post an average 106.8 passer rating (27th).
As a result, Washington’s been spotty competitive; they’re 2-2 but beat teams with a combined 2-6 record on last-minute plays. As a final nail in this argument, the Football Team is allowing the third-most points per game in the NFL at 30.5.
Chicago Bears Offense
David Montgomery is third in rushing yards through four games, tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns, and fifth in rushing attempts this season. While the Bears coaching staff twists themselves into a pretzel over the quarterback situation, Montgomery has been productive.
That is, until he went down with a knee injury that will sideline Montgomery for at least four weeks. In his absence, Damien Williams will likely be the lead back. The Bears have an NFL-worst 948 total offensive yards, 309 (32.6%) of which is Montgomery rushing yards. Losing a third of your offense isn’t ideal, especially when the team’s identity is only solid on the ground.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
In 2019, Ryan Tannehill led the NFL in passer rating and repeated in the top-five a season ago. In his first year post-Arthur Smith, Tannehill is the most-sacked, non-rookie quarterback (10.1% of dropbacks) and is bottom-seven in passer rating. Even with a devastating ground game, Tannehill just can’t get anything going on play-action– a staple in his game the past few years.
PFF ranks the Titans 24th in pass blocking and it shows. To make matters worse, Tannehill’s dealing with injuries to both star receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Week 1 was initially shrugged off as a one-off, but there’s real problems with this offense and their inability to keep Tannehill upright.
Among NFL Week 5 trends, the Titans are in for a rough rest of season ahead if this continues.